492
ACUS01 KWNS 091208
SWODY1
SPC AC 091207

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0707 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024

Valid 091300Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FROM ARKANSAS INTO PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH....

...SUMMARY...
Locally severe storms, capable of producing damaging wind gusts and
some hail, are possible from the Ozarks vicinity eastward across the
Tennessee Valley and Southeast.  Other isolated severe storms with
severe gusts and hail will also be possible across portions of the
central High Plains and southern Plains.  Isolated strong to severe
gusts may also occur over parts of the northern Intermountain region
and northern High Plains.

...AR/Northern MS/West TN/Northwest AL...
A large but weakening MCS is present this morning over
central/southern MO.  The associated surface outflow boundary
extends from northwest OK into far southern MO, and should sag only
slowly southward through the day.  A very moist air mass is present
from the boundary southward across much of AR and into west
TN/northern MS/northern AL with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower
70s.  Strong heating in this zone should result in afternoon MLCAPE
values of 2000-3000 J/kg.  Present indication are that scattered
thunderstorms will develop in vicinity of the remnant boundary over
northern AR and track southeastward across the SLGT risk area.  Low
level winds are rather weak, but strong west-northwesterly flow
aloft will promote organized multicell or a few supercell storms
capable of damaging wind gusts and hail.  Activity may remain
intense into western AL during the evening before weakening in a
more stable air mass.

...Southern and Central High Plains...
A rather large upper ridge is present today over the southwest
states, with widespread mid-level moisture evident on water vapor
imagery under the ridge.  Strong heating will result in scattered
afternoon thunderstorms over the higher terrain of central NM/CO/WY,
propagating slowly eastward into the adjacent high Plains during the
late afternoon.  Weak winds aloft will limit organization.  However,
a deeply mixed boundary layer and sufficient CAPE will pose some
risk of high-based thunderstorms capable of gusty/damaging winds and
some hail.

...Northern Great Basin into MT/WY...
Scattered high-based afternoon thunderstorms are expected today from
portions of eastern OR into ID/MT/WY.  This region is along the
southern fringe of stronger anti-cyclonic westerly flow, and is
characterized by inverted-v thermodynamic profiles.  A few of the
storms will pose a risk of locally gusty/damaging wind and hail
through the afternoon and evening.

..Hart/Bentley.. 06/09/2024

$$