Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
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014 FXUS62 KFFC 260927 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 527 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024 ...Morning Area Forecast Discussion... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 526 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024 Definitely a quieter start to this morning compared to yesterday. Rainfall from yesterday and clearer skies overnight is allowing for some patchy mist to form which could develop into areas of very patchy fog later this morning. Southeast this morning is on the edge of a subtropical ridge and trough over the Great Plains with embedded potent shortwave. Thunderstorms are ongoing across the Ozarks along and south of a lifting warm front. Further organization of these storms are what will need to be monitored today - some guidance depicts these moving through far north GA later this afternoon/evening as an MCS. If this occurs, CAPE values will be in the 1000-1500 J/kg range and effective bulk shear values of 30 kts+ will allow for some damaging wind gusts and potential for large hail. PoPs for today is concentrated in these locations as a result. Can`t completely rule out some airmass thunderstorms today, but notable capping is in place with stout EML at 700 mb in forecast soundings which should limit this overall elsewhere. Main show will be later tonight. Most convective guidance depicts organized line entering the northern part of the state later tonight. CAPE values will remain elevated as surface is expected to remain mostly mixed limiting effects of nocturnal inversion. This line is expected after midnight and will still be in place during the morning hours, but should begin to decay as it loses upper level support with further southward extent. Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) is in place across north GA, with damaging winds the primary threat, though a brief spin up tornado along the line will be possible. Question after this will be what occurs during the afternoon tomorrow. How long the line remains in tact and how far it progresses will likely play a role in this. Environment should be able to recover into the afternoon after morning MCS, and remnant outflow will be in place to allow for some redevelopment of afternoon storms. Environment could be relatively potent, with SBCAPE values climbing well into the 2000+ J/kg range. Plenty of overlying shear will allow for some potential organization of cold pools. Slight Risk is in place for western GA with Marginal risk elsewhere, though expansion of this will be possible. Lusk && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 526 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024 The extended forecast starts off on the heels of the exiting frontal boundary with a drier airmass moving in. The cold front that moves in to the area in the short term will be exiting the area Mon day evening with diminishing showers and thunderstorms through Tue morning. High pressure builds in behind the frontal boundary with drier air and slightly cooler temps moving in across the region. Fairly quiet weather anticipated through the end of the week. Moisture begins to creep back in for the weekend and could see precip chances move back in for the weekend. 01 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 250 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024 VFR to start TAF period. Could see some periods of patchy low cigs during the morning hours that could be MVFR or even IFR, generally in the 10Z-14Z time frame. FEW to SCT cu field expected during the afternoon. Low chance of seeing an afternoon storm at metro TAF sites, but not high enough to warrant PROB30 mention at this time. Winds will be from the SW 5-10 kts through most of period. Lower cigs and convection may be approaching airport tomorrow morning at very end of TAF period - expect mention in next TAF issuance. //ATL Confidence...06Z Update... Medium confidence morning low cigs, high all others. Lusk && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 90 69 85 65 / 20 20 40 20 Atlanta 90 71 86 67 / 10 20 40 20 Blairsville 83 64 80 59 / 40 50 60 10 Cartersville 90 68 87 63 / 20 40 60 20 Columbus 92 72 88 69 / 0 10 40 30 Gainesville 88 70 83 65 / 30 30 50 10 Macon 93 70 89 68 / 10 10 40 30 Rome 90 70 87 64 / 20 50 60 10 Peachtree City 90 70 86 65 / 10 20 40 20 Vidalia 93 72 93 72 / 10 10 40 50 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Lusk LONG TERM....01 AVIATION...Lusk