869
FXUS63 KICT 060541
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1241 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- After a break from storms, they will return for the Fri night
  through Sun morning time frame.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Water vapor imagery currently shows an upper low spinning over
south central Manitoba with the upper energy that brought our
storms last night, now moving through the Ohio
Valley/Appalachians. At the surface, weak high pressure is
centered over Northern OK/Southern KS with a weak cold front
extending from southeast MO down into the Arklatex region.

For tonight through Thu, northwest flow aloft is expected to
remain in place with upper ridging over the Desert Southwest and
upper troughing from Manitoba into the Great Lakes region.
There is good model agreement in a weak cold front/wind shift
moving through tonight into Thu morning as a surface high slides
down from the northwest. Any storms that develop along the
front would likely be south of the KS/OK border, where better
instability will be situated.

By 12z Fri, surface high will stretch from eastern Nebraska into the
Ozark region and will continue sliding south during the day. Rich
moisture will be pushed fairly far south and will work back around
the high into the Western KS. Upper flow will become slightly more
zonal starting Fri as a few weak upper perturbations come
across the Rockies. This will allow lee troughing to strengthen
and the surface high to shift southeast. Still looking like a
good elevated convection setup for Fri night as 850-700mb flow
veers around, setting up decent 850-700mb theta-e advection. So
current thinking is that storms will develop Fri evening along
or just north of the mid level baroclinic zone, which would
primarily be over the northeast quadrant of our forecast area.
Wherever the MCS develops Fri night, it will dive off to the
southeast through the overnight hours.

Another cold front is expected to move into the area on Sat as
shortwave energy moves from the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes
region. This front will be the focus for storm development late Sat
afternoon and especially Sat evening. At this time it appears
far southern KS into OK would have the better storm chances.
While there could be some lingering storms Sun morning across
southern KS, at this time it looks like most of Sunday will be
dry as a fairly strong surface high moves-in. So below normal
temperatures are looking more likely for the Sun and Mon time
frame.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

VFR conditions will prevail across the region over the next
24hrs with surface high pressure building over Kansas and light
winds.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...CDJ