835
FXUS63 KICT 120807
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
307 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Increasing rain chances today and cooler temperatures

- Areas of showers and thunderstorms tonight and Monday

- Another chance for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon
and Wednesday night

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 306 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

A strong mid and upper level low pressure system is now moving into
the region.  Moisture advection ahead of this system is good,
especially at the 700mb level which is shows a strong and long fetch
of moisture advection from the Gulf Coast.  This orientation is
driving the high PW values of 1-1.5 inches across the region.  This
high PW value is well above normal for this time of year and
strongly indicates the potential for wide spread rain event.  The
ensembles are generally in agreement that most areas of the CWA will
get a good amount of rain.  Rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1 inch are
likely through Monday afternoon/evening.  Locally higher amounts are
also possible.  Thunderstorm activity with this system is likely to
be more scattered with a few strong storms possible.  During the
afternoon Monday some pea to dime hail is possible with the stronger
storms.  The mid and upper levels are not conducive to support
severe thunderstorms at this time and as such, severe thunderstorms
are not expected.  Temperatures today and Monday are expected to be
lower than yesterday.

Tuesday, some ridging will return and allow temperatures to rise
again.  That said, expect only Western Kansas to recover rapidly and
reach the 80s with the Central and Eastern Kansas likely remaining
in the mid 70s.  Areas further east in the lower 70s as the clouds
will be slower to clear.  Wednesday, the next weather system will
approach the CWA.  Most of the ensembles are indicating this next
system will provide another round of showers and thunderstorms.
Orientation of this system is also not conducive to severe
thunderstorm activity but it does appear it will be more likely to
have strong storms with small hail (less than an inch).  Confidence
is low at this point (<30%) especially considering the ensembles are
indicating the moisture needed to drive the system will only arrive
"just in time".  This puts doubt in the possibility of wide spread
rain at this point.  If the moisture does not arrive in time, it
will be difficult for another wide spread rain event to occur.  Some
of the long range ensembles hint at this possibility. Given the
uncertainty at this stage, confidence in the forecast beyond Tuesday
is low.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

VFR conditions are expected for the first six to eight hours of
the TAF period today. The next weather system will be pushing
into the region after about 14Z today. KRSL and KGBD will be the
first terminals to see any rain. Expecting this system to be
more shower activity with embedded thunderstorms during the
early afternoon. As the day progresses, KSLN, KHUT and KICT will
likely start to see increasing chances for showers and
thunderstorms. Showers will be the primary weather with some
temporary thunderstorm conditions. At this time, only confidence
to place PROB30 due to the variances in the ensembles. CIGs
will likely become prevalent

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ELM
AVIATION...ELM