514
FXUS66 KMTR 200645
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1145 PM PDT Sun May 19 2024

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1237 PM PDT Sun May 19 2024

Typical summer-like pattern to persist throughout the first half of
the week. Temperatures are forecast to dip below seasonal averages
by late week and into the upcoming weekend as an upper level trough
impacts the region.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 927 PM PDT Sun May 19 2024

It`s clear except for patchy low clouds forming along coastal San
Mateo County and Santa Cruz County, including around the rest of
the Monterey Bay and northern Salinas Valley in northern Monterey
County. Satellite also shows a couple patches of low clouds over
southern Santa Clara County. The marine layer slopes from a depth
of a few hundred feet at Bodega Bay to 2,000 feet at Fort Ord. A
high pressure system is located 1,000 miles west of the Bay Area
and a 500 mb low pressure trough is over the western states. With
weak (and dry) surface low pressure over interior California, a
strong pressure gradient exists mainly over the coastal waters,
generating gales over the coastal waters. Point Arena buoy and
Bodega Bay buoy wind gusts have been near 40 knots, recently cold
water upwelling has lowered the sea surface temperature to 49F at
Point Arena buoy.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 1237 PM PDT Sun May 19 2024

Clouds continue to rapidly erode as of early this afternoon and will
continue to do so into the evening. Low clouds are more than likely
to return to the Monterey Bay region and the San Francisco Peninsula
overnight but will clear by early-to-mid morning. Also, cannot rule
out patchy drizzle in and around the Monterey Bay early Monday
morning.

Afternoon temperatures for Monday will be similar to today, yet
coastal areas will warm by a few degrees thanks to northerly flow
across the region. Thus, expecting highs to range from the lower
60`s to near 70 degrees at the coast with mid 70`s to lower 80`s
across the interior.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 301 AM PDT Sun May 19 2024

A slight warming trend is expected through mid-week with
temperatures building into the upper 70s to mid 80s by
Tuesday/Wednesday. Inland stratus coverage is expected to be less
impressive this week as a deeper marine layer and gusty offshore
winds keep the atmosphere well mixed and low clouds confined to the
coast. Ensemble guidance agrees that Tuesday is looking to be the
warmest day this week with the highest probability of widespread
temperatures greater than 80 degrees. Minor heat risk begins to
spread through most of the Bay Area and portions of the Salinas
Valley Monday through Thursday. People who are incredibly sensitive
to heat should take precautions while outdoors and remember to drink
plenty of water.

By late week, upper level troughing strengthens and moves farther
south into California with an associated surface low passing through
the state. This will bring about a pattern change with widespread
below average temperatures expected. By the weekend, inland highs
will be in the upper 60s to mid 70s with coastal highs in the upper
50s to low 60s. CPC temperature outlooks have temperatures leaning
below average through the end of May and into the beginning of June.
Ensemble guidance suggests this system will be fairly dry for our
region with any precipitation associated with it directed northwards
of us into far northern California/southern Oregon.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1145 PM PDT Sun May 19 2024

VFR through the TAF Period for all but the Monterey Bay, which will
see MVFR CIGs through the mid morning.  Expect light to moderate
winds  overnight for most areas overnight. Moderate winds build into
Monday afternoon, with gusty winds expected along the immediate
coast and around the SF Bay.


Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period. Expect moderate west
winds overnight. Gusty westerly winds arrive Monday afternoon with
peak gusts around 25 kts. These winds reduce into the early night.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO

Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR CIGs linger into the mid morning.
Expect light winds overnight with more moderate westerly winds
arriving Monday afternoon and lasting into the night.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Saturday)
Issued at 1145 PM PDT Sun May 19 2024

Strong and gusty northwesterly winds will continue over much of
the coastal waters tonight and Monday, with only slight reductions
in wind speed over the inner coastal waters during the overnight
hours. Expect hazardous conditions and steeper wind waves during
the week. Winds may ease late in the week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10
     nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for Pt Reyes to
     Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pt Pinos to Pt
     Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning until 9 AM PDT Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-
     60 NM.

     Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-
     60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....Kennedy
AVIATION...Murdock
MARINE...Canepa

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