000
FXUS66 KMTR 161748
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1048 AM PDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 AM PDT SUNDAY...THE MARINE LAYER
COMPRESSED OVERNIGHT...TO AROUND 1400 FEET...RESULTING IN LESS
LOW CLOUD COVERAGE INLAND THIS MORNING. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WERE
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL LOCATIONS...WITH MORE INLAND
INTRUSION THROUGH THE MONTEREY BAY AND SALINAS VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WERE SIMILAR TO THOSE OBSERVED LAST
NIGHT...WITH READINGS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED BETWEEN
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
IMPACTING THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COASTLINE. THIS WILL
KEEP THE REGION OF STRATUS NEARLY STAGNANT AND ALLOW FOR DECENT
ONSHORE FLOW AND NEARLY IDENTICAL DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE
60S TO LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST...TO THE MID 70S TO MID 80S INLAND.
THE REGION SHOULD SEE STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATED THE SFO-SAC GRADIENT WILL PEAK JUST
OVER 5 MB...WHERE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON IT PEAKED AT 4.8 MB DURING
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW MAY ALSO RESULT IN
EARLY STRATUS RETURN...EVEN BY EARLY THIS EVENING FOR THE MONTEREY
AND SF BAYS.

OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS RIGHT ON TRACK WITH A DRY
WEATHER PATTERN AND LITTLE TEMPERATURES VARIATION THROUGH AT LEAST
THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:36 AM PDT SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES
THIS MORNING GENERALLY IN THE 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH A FEW
SPOTS IN THE UPPER 40S. THE DEEP MARINE LAYER HAS MIXED
SLIGHTLY...YET REMAINS IN PLACE WITH LOW STRATUS OFFSHORE AND INTO
THE MONTEREY...SALINAS VALLEY AND SAN FRANCISCO BAY REGIONS.

VERY LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THE PAST 24HRS ACROSS THE REGION WITH
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE REMAINING OFFSHORE...WEST OF THE WA/OR
COAST. THIS WILL KEEP ONSHORE FLOW AND THE PERSISTENT MARINE LAYER
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL
SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST BY MIDWEEK AND
BRINGING THE TROUGH AXIS THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. AS A
RESULT...850MB TEMPERATURES COOL TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND WILL
BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. AS THE TROUGH PULLS
FURTHER EAST AWAY FROM THE WEST COAST...A RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK
OVERHEAD AND BRING A WARMING TREND FOR LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:48 AM PDT SUNDAY...THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH IS
STILL AROUND 1400 FEET BUT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE CLEARED FROM
ALL AREA TERMINALS THIS MORNING. EXPECT VFR TODAY WITH INCREASED
SEABREEZE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. COASTAL STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INLAND OVERNIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. ONSHORE WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT POSSIBLE AFTER 20Z. EXPECT MVFR CIGS AFTER
06Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR TODAY. AN EARLY RETURN OF
COASTAL STRATUS IS LIKELY THIS EVENING WITH IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...SF BAY FROM 1 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RILEY/RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: SIMS

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