Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 260513
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1013 PM PDT Mon Mar 25 2024

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1247 AM PDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Quiet weather for today and Tuesday. An unsettled pattern returns
for mid week into the weekend with renewed rain chances.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 813 PM PDT Mon Mar 25 2024

No changes to the forecast this afternoon. It seems March will end
in a similar fashion to how it began: wet. Expect a shot of rain
late Wednesday with another, more substantial round on Friday and
scattered showers lasting through the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 215 PM PDT Mon Mar 25 2024

After a wet weekend and damp Monday morning, building high
pressure overhead has led to a much drier Monday afternoon.
Afternoon satellite imagery shows a mix of fair weather cumulus
build ups with high level clouds streaming in from the north.
Temperatures this afternoon will top out in the 50s to mid 60s
(40s higher peaks).

Tonight through Tuesday: Relatively quiet weather as high pressure
remains in control. Temperatures will remain slightly below
seasonal averages - 50s and 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 245 PM PDT Mon Mar 25 2024

A weak disturbance currently nearing the Gulf of AK will continue
to strengthen as it heads toward the PacNW coast Tuesday into
Wednesday. This developing feature will bring rain back to the
region by Wednesday. Ultimately the disturbance will develop into
a low pressure with a trailing cold front down the West Coast.
The cold front will sweep through the Bay Area and Central Coast
Wednesday into Thursday bringing another round of beneficial rain.
Rainfall amounts have remained steady from previous forecasts:
North Bay Coast/Mts 0.5-1.0", elsewhere 0.25-0.5" and less than
0.1" interior Central Coast. The passing front will also bring an
uptick in winds on Wednesday with gusts 25-40 mph, especially the
coast and higher peaks. Post frontal regime will keep lingering
showers through early Thursday night.

Confidence remains high (60-80%) that a stronger and more dynamic
low will impact CA Friday into early next weekend. Longwave
pattern per ensemble guidance and WPC cluster analysis shows a
deep upper low dropping down the California coastal waters Friday
and Saturday. This feature will bring more rain to the region as
early as Friday morning. Steadier rainfall is then expected Friday
afternoon through early Saturday. As the low pressure continues
southward to SoCal precip will taper off to showers from N to S
on early Sunday. While confidence hasn`t wavered too much on the
actual low pressure as of late, it`s been the amount of precip
that has been lower confidence. That being said, confidence has
increased slightly for higher rainfall amounts Fri-Sun. Coastal
mts now have a shot at seeing 2-3" (locally 4") and 0.75-1.5"
elsewhere. Still looking more beneficial than hazardous, but
ponding on roads and impacts to commutes are plausible.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1008 PM PDT Mon Mar 25 2024

All terminals with the exception of APC and STS will see MVFR
ceilings tonight. Widespread VFR will prevail by tomorrow afternoon.
Winds will remain breezy out of the west through the TAF period.

Vicinity of SFO...Currently MVFR with breezy westerly flow.
MVFR stratus will continue to impact the terminal through the
early morning hours with a return to VFR expected by mid-morning.
Winds will be breezy out of the west tomorrow.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR ceilings are in place and will persist
through the night. There is a 10% chance that ceilings will drop
below IFR thresholds around 12Z. There is no chance of precipitation
and the visibility should remain clear with relatively dry air in
place. VFR conditions will gradually return in the mid-morning
Tuesday with a moderate onshore wind in the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Sunday)
Issued at 1008 PM PDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Moderate NW winds will be enhanced in the coastal jet regions
Tuesday afternoon. By Wednesday, an approaching cold front will
cause winds to shift to a fresh southerly breeze as rough seas
begin to build. A stronger low pressure system arrives off the
coast on Friday, further deteriorating marine conditions.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Tuesday for Mry Bay-
     Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Pinos to Pt
     Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM....MM
AVIATION...Sarment/Flynn
MARINE...Flynn

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