Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
358 FXUS62 KTBW 261850 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 250 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 250 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024 Hot and dry conditions will persist through Monday as high pressure well out in the Atlantic Ocean continues to dominate. Monday night into Tuesday a weakening cool front will approach from the north and washout over the region. A few showers and storms could move into the northern waters and northern Nature Coast late Monday night with some more convection developing further south as the boundary drifts into the region Tuesday morning. However, the west to northwest flow will continue ahead of the boundary so that the highest rain chances will be over the interior and eastern half of the Florida peninsula during the afternoon and evening hours. By Wednesday the front will have washed out with a more east to southeast flow across the peninsula and with leftover moisture still across the area we should see scattered afternoon and evening convection develop. For Thursday and Friday it looks like a repeat of Tuesday and Wednesday as another weakening front approaches and moves into the area with a chance of more mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms both days. Next weekend an area of high pressure is expected to build in from the northeast with east to northeast flow returning and with enough moisture we should continue to see a chance of afternoon and evening convection. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 250 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024 VFR conditions will prevail with westerly winds increasing to 10 to 13 knots this afternoon. Winds will diminishing and becoming light and variable later this evening then southwest to west winds Monday morning will increase to around 10 knots by midday. && .MARINE... Issued at 250 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024 Dry high pressure will remain in place over the waters through Monday then a weakening cool front settles across the area for Tuesday through the end of the period. A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day beginning Tuesday. No headlines are expected through the week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 250 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024 High pressure will dominate through Monday keeping hot and dry weather across the region. Some inland areas will see an hour or two of critical levels in the afternoon, but winds will remain below 15 mph, with no Red Flag conditions are anticipated. A weakening cool front will drift into the area Tuesday bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 77 93 78 92 / 0 0 10 20 FMY 74 95 76 95 / 0 10 10 30 GIF 72 97 74 96 / 0 10 0 40 SRQ 74 92 77 93 / 0 0 10 20 BKV 67 95 71 93 / 0 0 10 30 SPG 79 91 81 90 / 0 0 10 20 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 4 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 8 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ Close