127
FXUS64 KTSA 100832
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
332 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

A few showers remained across far Southeast Oklahoma early this
morning in response to weak frontogenetic forcing in the
925-850-mb layer still yet to push south of the Red River. This
activity along with a slight chance for thunder will continue to
be possible through mid morning and then should taper off and exit
with the departing elevated frontal boundary. The northern
periphery of elevated instability remained over this
area...though with weak shear in place severe weather is not
anticipated this morning.

Across the rest of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas
today...cloud cover is expected to scatter from north to south
with easterly winds as the southern portion of surface high
pressure drops into the region. By mid afternoon mostly clear to
partly cloudy skies are forecast with high temps in the 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

The cooler conditions are forecast to continue into Tuesday before
surface high pressure exits to the east/northeast. In the wake of
the departing high pressure...a weak shortwave is progged to drop
southeast across the Southern Plains Tuesday into Wednesday. With
influence of high pressure not expected to exit until Tuesday
afternoon/evening...the track of the weak shortwave is progged to
now be more southwest of the CWA. Thus...shower/storm chances now
look to remain west and southwest of the CWA into Wednesday. In
response...the temperature warming trend is now forecast to begin
Wednesday for the CWA and continue into the weekend.

Warm and more humid conditions increase late week and the weekend
with heat index values of mid 90s to around 100 deg as a ridge of
high pressure builds over the Southern Plains. This ridge should
keep a shortwave lifting out of the Desert Southwest during the
weekend to the northwest of the CWA. Thus...no significant precip
chances are in the forecast through the weekend. One thing to
note...is just outside of this forecast package...latest extended
model solutions indicate an area of low pressure lifting
northward from the Gulf into the region for early next week. This
will be something to monitor over the coming week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Corridor of low VFR to periodic MVFR ceilings remains across SE OK
into west central AR and is expected to remain in this generally
vicinity through the overnight hours. Isolated ongoing convection
across SE OK is expected to remain south of terminals. Low clouds
steadily erode or move south of KMLC/KFSM by mid morning with VFR
conditions then prevailing area wide.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   85  62  86  65 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   86  62  87  65 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   85  63  85  64 /   0   0  10   0
BVO   85  58  86  62 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   83  57  84  61 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   81  57  83  60 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   85  62  85  64 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   83  57  84  62 /   0   0   0   0
F10   85  62  85  63 /   0   0  10   0
HHW   83  64  84  64 /  20   0  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...07