742
FXUS64 KMAF 310611
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
Issued by National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
111 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 111 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Weak shortwave aloft will track across the TX panhandle and DFW
region overnight into Friday morning, allowing ongoing convection
to conglomerate into upscale, mesoscale growth and adjust storm
propagation to a more southerly motion. MCS likely to form early
Friday morning across much of northern Texas with a cold front
moving south along the leading gust front of this system. Main
threat with Friday morning`s storms will be gusty winds along the
leading line of storms, generally between 6-10 AM for the
Snyder/Big Springs area. Storm threat should come to an end for
all local zones by noon.

Cooler temperatures tomorrow behind frontal passage in the
morning. Afternoon temperatures topping out in the upper 80s for
the northeastern Basin, mid-to-upper 90s for the Trans-Pecos
region. Cooler surface air and a strong capping inversion at 750
mb will greatly hinder afternoon storm chances. East surface winds
cutting off the tap of Gulf moisture is another factor limiting
storm chances. A few evening storms will be possible along the
northern fringes of our forecast area (closer to Lubbock) with
convection that forms in southeast NM, otherwise we`ll stay dry
through this afternoon and evening.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 111 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

00Z GFS resolving a shortwave ridge on Saturday, with embedded
waves within the prevailing zonal flow aloft. Surface flow
shifting back to the southeast will reinforce moisture flux and
thus allow for another uptick in thunderstorm chances area wide.
Best chance will be during the late-evening hours with initial
convection developing off to the west and tracking eastward and
subsequent upslope flow allowing storm coverage to grow headed
into Saturday night. PWATs 150% of normal would suggest efficient
rain makers and the risk of areal flooding as storm coverage
increases Saturday night.

Strengthened southwest flow ahead of a subtropical jet streak
will mix out the dryline boundary across the Trans-Pecos region on
Sunday, shifting the boundary further east closer to Midland. We
may see a few isolated storms result further east as a result, but
much lower PoPs expected due to this influx of drier air from the
west. Deep westerly flow take hold of the whole area Monday as a
strengthening upper high over northern Mexico begins a warming
trend. The northward shift of this high pressure will result in
very hot day start to next week with triple-digit highs Monday-
Wednesday. Some relief from the heat seems possible late in the
week with a deep low pressure system over the northern Plains and
subsequent cold front spilling south into the Texas panhandle. NBM
temperatures spread varies greatly regarding the eventual
southern extent of that cooler air, with the ECMWF featuring a
much sharper trough. Model confidence in the position of the upper
high is low at this time, so will settle with the NBM`s modest
cooldown and low-end PoPs for now.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Generally VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. KMAF
currently at MVFR with BKN024 with the passing of a remnant
outflow boundary moving NE to SW, CIGs should lift between 06-07Z.
Elsewhere, quiet weather remains with VFR conditions. Winds
currently out of the SE at all terminals at 7-12 knots. KMAF more
easterly behind the remnant outflow boundary aforementioned above
at 10-15 knots with gusts of 25 knots.

Developing TS over the Texas Panhandle will develop into an MCS
and dive S/SE during the overnight hours, with possible impacts at
KMAF by 13Z. Confidence is low on how far west the line of TS
will extend, so mention of VCTS at 13Z for now. With this boundary
associated with the developing MCS, the winds will shift E/NE by
~11Z for KHOB, ~13Z for KMAF/KINK, 14Z for KPEQ/KCNM, and ~15Z for
KFST. Winds will be out of the E/NE at 10-15 knots with gusts up
to 25-30 knots. BKN to OVC at 6000-10000 expected.

Skies will clear from the NW to SE during the mid and late
morning timeframe with light winds (7-12 knots) out of E/SE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 111 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Elevated fire danger west of the dryline on Friday, including
most of the Davis Mountains, Guadalupe Range, and Eddy County
Plains. Min RH 5-12% and east winds 10 to 15 mph. ERCs remain
quite high above the 90th percentile in those areas.

Lightning starts will be possible on Saturday as the dryline
shifts further west and thunderstorm chances across much of west
Texas and southeast New Mexico will pose a risk for the elevated
terrain and forested areas. Conditions dry out quickly again
early next week with stronger west flow and warmer temperatures
due to the strengthening of high pressure aloft. Critical
conditions possible Monday/Tuesday if forecasted winds remain
breezy.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               87  67  90  67 /  40  10  20  30
Carlsbad                 95  67  95  66 /   0   0  30  20
Dryden                   98  72  95  73 /   0   0  20  20
Fort Stockton            98  70  96  69 /   0   0  40  20
Guadalupe Pass           89  64  88  65 /   0   0  20  20
Hobbs                    90  63  91  64 /  10  10  30  30
Marfa                    95  57  95  58 /   0   0  30  20
Midland Intl Airport     89  67  91  68 /  20   0  30  30
Odessa                   91  69  92  69 /  10   0  30  30
Wink                     99  70  97  69 /   0   0  30  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...99