753
FXUS64 KMOB 251900
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
200 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Sunday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

Latest water vapor imagery shows upper troughing over the Plains,
with weak ridging and zonal flow over much of the eastern CONUS. At
the surface, high pressure remains anchored over the northeast Gulf,
with southerly flow persisting across the local area. Weak
shortwaves moving around the northern periphery of the ridge have
sparked several MCSs overnight and into today, with outflow
boundaries meandering over the southeast. The combination of these
outflows, aided by diurnal temp trends and plentiful moisture, has
allowed new activity to develop around our northeast zones, though
these have generally been short lived. As we head into our peak
heating hours, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will remain
possible, mainly along and north of the US-84 corridor. Any storm
that`s able to maintain its updraft strength will be capable of
producing small hail and localized wind gusts, but these will be
more isolated. Storms lingering into the evening hours will quickly
diminish with the loss of daytime heating, leaving a mild overnight
period across the area.

Sunday will be another dry and hot day, as the upper ridging amplifies
during the day. Daytime highs will warm into the upper 80s along the
coast to lower 90s further inland. Max heat index values will near
100 degrees, but should remain below the triple digits for most of
the area. Rain chances will be on the low side thanks to the
subsidence associated with the amplifying ridge. /73
&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

The Memorial Day holiday may be a tad more active, as the ridge
begins to flatten and a trough swings into the Mississippi Valley. A
cold front associated with its parent surface low will trail
southward and into Texas late Sunday night, with this system
expected to move eastward during the overnight hours. Rain chances
will increase during the afternoon on Monday and may linger
into the overnight hours. With the surface cold front and upper
trough, we will likely have a bit more lift and shear for
organized convection to move into the area, but the coverage of
storms should be scattered at best, and the coverage of severe
storms will likely remain isolated. The main threats would be
brief gusty winds and hail in the stronger storms.

The boundary may stall just south of the coastline on Tuesday, which
would keep isolated chances for thunderstorms in the afternoon
hours. There is a great deal of uncertainty as to how far south and
how quickly the front is able to reach, so will maintain isolated
thunderstorms on Tuesday. By Wednesday, the boundary is expected to
have dissipated with high pressure and upper ridging building back
into the area. This will bring hot and dry conditions back to the
region, with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and overnight lows
in the 60s /73

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

A light to occasionally moderate onshore flow is expected to
persist across the coastal waters through Monday. Winds will be
enhanced across inland bay and sounds each afternoon with the
seabreeze. A cold front approaches from the north on Monday and
will bring the potential for isolated to scattered showers and
storms Monday into Tuesday. A brief light offshore flow is
expected by Tuesday night into Wednesday as the front moves
offshore.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      73  89  75  90  72  93  68  91 /   0   0   0  30  10  20  10  10
Pensacola   75  86  77  87  75  90  71  88 /   0   0   0  20  10  20  10  10
Destin      76  85  77  86  76  87  72  86 /   0   0   0  20  10  20  10  10
Evergreen   71  91  71  91  68  92  64  90 /  10   0  10  40  20  20  10  10
Waynesboro  71  93  72  93  68  92  65  89 /  10   0  10  40  20  20  10  10
Camden      71  91  72  90  67  90  64  88 /  20   0  10  40  20  20  10  10
Crestview   71  91  70  91  69  93  65  92 /   0   0   0  30  10  20  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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