Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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000
FXUS64 KMOB 311007 CCA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED PRELIM NUMBERS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
439 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY THROUGH TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW DEEPENS AS IT TRANSLATES FROM THE VICINITY OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY THIS MORNING TO NEAR THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS BY EARLY SATURDAY...WHILE UPPER RIDGING
MEANWHILE STRENGTHENS OVER THE PLAINS STATES. A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT
BETWEEN THESE FEATURES. A STRONG SHORTWAVE QUICKLY DIVING
SOUTHEASTWARD WITH THE DEEPENING LOW WILL DRIVE A SURFACE COLD FRONT
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL LA/MS AND WESTERN AL BY MIDDAY TODAY
BEFORE PUSHING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE CWFA INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES TODAY MAY ONLY HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO WARM INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE.
INCREASING MOISTURE AROUND 850 MB MAY BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID
LEVEL CLOUD COVER LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...BUT AN
OVERALL DRY AIRMASS THROUGH THE DEEP LAYERS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AVERAGING LESS THAN 0.7 INCHES WILL PRECLUDE ANY RAIN CHANCE
WITH THE FRONT TODAY. POPS REMAIN NIL.

A COLD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP FROM CANADA INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING...THEN WILL SETTLE FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TO WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION TONIGHT. THE MSLP GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CAROLINAS WILL KEEP NORTHERLY WINDS ELEVATED ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT SOUTHWARD
THROUGH OUR AREA ON THESE NORTHERLY WINDS...AND WE EXPECT A
CHILLY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. WE CONTINUED TO FAVOR SLIGHTLY
WARMER GUIDANCE NUMBERS TONIGHT GIVEN THE INCREASED WIND SPEEDS...
BUT WE STILL EXPECT OVERNIGHT READINGS TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 30S OVER INTERIOR AREAS AND THE LOWER TO MID 40S NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. PATCHY LIGHT FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING OVER INTERIOR AREAS. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN HIGHEST NEAR
THE IMMEDIATE COAST TONIGHT...BUT SPEEDS/GUSTS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE MOST PART EXCEPT PERHAPS RIGHT AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. MID LEVEL MOISTURE
QUICKLY PUSHES WELL OFFSHORE BY THIS EVENING...WITH CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. /21

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE UPPER LOW THAT PUSH A RE-ENFORCING
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT MOVES OFF AS MORE UPPER ENERGY DIGS
SOUTH...THEN PUSHES EAST OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WESTERN ENERGY
PUSHES AN UPPER RIDGE EASTWARD OVER THE PLAINS...PUSHING A SURFACE
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS EASTWARD TO NEAR THE EAST COAST. A
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA SATURDAY EASES SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY AS IT BECOMES NORTHEASTERLY.

SATURDAY...WITH A SIGNIFICANT SHOT OF COLDER AIR MOVING OVER THE FA
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING TEMPS IN THE UPPER
50S NORTH TO LOW 60S ALONG THE COAST. WITH GUIDANCE PRETTY CONSISTENT
THE LAST FEW DAYS...AND DECENTLY CONSISTENT WITH THE 00Z ISSUANCE...
SEE NO REASON TO ARGUE. AM EXPECTING BREEZY CONDITIONS TO GO WITH THE
COLDER TEMPS...BUT NOT QUITE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WIND ADVISORY AT
THIS POINT.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH THE WINDS SETTLING...AT LEAST PART
OF THE FA WILL SEE FREEZING TEMPS. THE CURRENT GUIDANCE PLACES THE
CUT-OFF LINE OVER A STONE...CO MISS TO SOUTHERN CRENSHAW CO...AL
LINE. DEPENDING UPON THE WINDS AND HOW MUCH THE SETTLE...THIS LINE
COULD SHIFT NORTH OR SOUTH. AT THIS POINT...THIS LOOKS TO BE THE BEST
COMPROMISE AMONGST A GENERAL 3-5 DEGREE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE. HAVE
ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH AT THIS POINT...TO AT LEAST GIVE A HEADS UP FOR
THE FIRST COLD SNAP OF THE YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT ON)...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING THE WESTERN CONUS ENERGY PUSHING
EAST...WITH THE SOUTHERN END SEEING A SERIOUS PUSH-BACK BY AN UPPER
HIGH THAT BECOMES ENTRENCHED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEX. THIS
MEANS THE NORTHERN END OF THE WESTERN TROUGH PUSHES EAST OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...WHILST THE SOUTHERN END REMAINS
ANCHORED OVER THE AZ/NM/MEX BORDER. THIS NORTHERN ADVANCEMENT PUSHES
THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD SOUTHWARD...TO OVER THE
CAROLINA COAST WITH A RIDGE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS AND PUTTING THE FA BACK UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE GULF. THE
RESULT IS TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS RISING TO NEAR SEASONAL
LEVELS.

TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY...THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH BREAKS OFF AND
FORMS A CLOSED LOW WHICH MEANDERS AROUND THE US/MEX BORDER...WITH THE
REST OF THE TROUGH STRETCHES ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...PUSHING THE SURFACE RIDGE SOUTH OVER THE GULF
OF MEX AND BRINGING THE FA BACK UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW. GUIDANCE IS
ADVERTISING THE UPPER WANDERING EAST ENOUGH FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE SHOWERS OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND
MAINLY WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FA. TEMPS CONTINUE TO RISE...WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...
31.12Z ISSUANCE...VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD...
THOUGH INCREASED CLOUD DECKS BETWEEN 4-6 KFT WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. LIGHT NW WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING...BUT A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING NW TO N WINDS OF 12-17 KNOTS WITH SOME
GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
/21

&&

.MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
MARINE AREA THIS MORNING BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS MUCH STRONGER
NORTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WE EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS  MAINLY AFTER 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LOOK
FOR NORTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE TO 25-30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OVER GALE
FORCE ACROSS LOWER MOBILE BAY...THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND...AND THE
COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA
PANHANDLE DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS...PERSISTING INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. WE HAVE UPGRADED THE GALE WATCH TO A GALE WARNING
AND HAVE ALSO INCLUDED LOWER MOBILE BAY AND THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND IN
ADDITION TO THE COASTAL WATERS BEGINNING AT 10 PM CDT...AND
CONTINUING THROUGH 10 AM SATURDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL QUICKLY BUILD
TO 5 TO 8 FEET OVER THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS...AND 7 TO 10 FEET WELL
OFFSHORE TONIGHT...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING INTO SATURDAY. WE WILL
THEN CONTINUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL OF THE MARINE AREA LATE
SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY EVENING AS NORTHERLY WINDS
AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25-30 KNOTS CONTINUE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SUNDAY TO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD BY MONDAY. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DECREASE...BUT
STILL REMAIN MODERATE FROM THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY...THEN MORE EASTERLY
BY MONDAY. A MODERATE EAST FLOW SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN U.S. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      74  38  58  34  64 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   74  42  60  37  64 /  00  05  00  00  00
DESTIN      74  43  61  40  65 /  00  05  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   74  36  57  30  62 /  05  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  72  35  58  30  62 /  05  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      73  35  57  30  61 /  05  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   75  38  60  31  65 /  05  05  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FREEZE WATCH FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 8 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...CRENSHAW...
     MONROE...WASHINGTON...WILCOX...

FL...NONE.
MS...FREEZE WATCH FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 8 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GREENE...PERRY...WAYNE...

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...NORTHERN MOBILE BAY...
     PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA
     MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY...
     WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 10 PM FRIDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA
     MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY...
     WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA
     MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY...
     WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

&&

$$

21/16









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