Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 071728 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1228 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. A VERY ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION. /13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 508 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/

SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...HIGH PRESSURE (BOTH SFC AND ALOFT)
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS A RESULT
EXPECT VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A VERY ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM COULD BE
POSSIBLE...BUT SHOULD BE SO FEW AND FAR BETWEEN THAT WE HAVE REMOVED
RAIN CHANCES FROM THE FCST. OVERALL...MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN
FREE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH THE RIDGING AND FEWER CLOUDS ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY...EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE OF YESTERDAY. SHOULD SEE LOWER 90S OVER
INTERIOR COUNTIES AND AROUND 90 CLOSER TO THE COAST (MAYBE A FEW
UPPER 80S IMMEDIATE BEACHES). LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S OVER ALL
AREAS INLAND (AWAY FROM THE COAST)...AND MID TO UPPER 70S NEAR AND
ALONG THE COAST. 12/DS

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE.

[WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY]...RIDGING AT UPPER LEVELS AND THE SURFACE
CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
BRINGING MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES WITH
IT. HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP AS MOISTURE SURGES BACK
INTO THE AREA BY THURSDAY...INCREASING THE PWATS AND RAIN CHANCES.

HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM LOW 90S ALONG THE BEACHES TO AROUND 93 TO 96
FURTHER INLAND BOTH AFTERNOONS. THIS WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDICES OF
100 TO 103 ACROSS INLAND AREAS AND UPPER 90S DOWN ACROSS THE
BEACHES. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE LOW 70S INLAND AND
HOVER IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE BEACHES. 07/MB

LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...OVERHEAD THIS WEEKEND...AND CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
SLIDE WEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. LOWER RAIN
CHANCES WILL ACCOMPANY THE RIDGE WITH TYPICAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
COVERAGE EACH AFTERNOON. DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL REMAIN FOCUSED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA ALONG THE SEA BREEZE.

HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PERSIST WITH THE HIGHEST READINGS EARLY IN
THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE RIDGE SLIDES OVERHEAD. HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 90S EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION...HEAT INDICES WILL SOAR ABOVE 100 EACH AFTERNOON
WITH VALUES RANGING FROM 102 TO 105 AWAY FROM THE COAST THIS WEEKEND.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MUGGY WITH MID TO LOW 70S INLAND
AND UPPER 70S ACROSS THE BEACHES.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A TROUGH BUILDING DOWN ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH NEVER MAKING IT THIS FAR
SOUTH. DEPENDING ON HOW THIS SETS UP...IT MAY BRING SOME RELIEF FROM
THE HEAT AS RAIN CHANCES ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE. 07/MB


MARINE...A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STRETCH
WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK...
MAINTAINING A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE (MOSTLY ONSHORE) WIND
FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH WEEKS END. SEAS GENERALLY 2
FEET OR LESS. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS EXPECTED...MAINLY
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER
NEAR ANY OF THE ISOLATED STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      90  74  93  72  92 /  10  05  20  05  30
PENSACOLA   91  76  92  76  92 /  10  05  20  05  20
DESTIN      89  78  91  78  90 /  10  05  10  10  20
EVERGREEN   92  72  95  72  94 /  10  05  20  05  30
WAYNESBORO  93  71  95  71  94 /  10  05  10  05  20
CAMDEN      93  72  95  72  95 /  10  05  10  05  20
CRESTVIEW   94  73  95  72  93 /  10  05  20  05  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


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