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000
FXUS64 KMOB 062319 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
330 PM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

.AVIATION...(00Z ISSUANCE)...AS A COLD FRONT MEANDERS ACROSS THE
AREA OVERNIGHT...CIGS CURRENTLY AT MVFR LEVELS WILL DROP TO IFR OR
LOWER. STRONG WINDS WILL HELP TO KEEP VISBYS HIGHER THAN
ANTICIPATED. AS THE FRONT MOVES PAST THE AREA SATURDAY...CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE BACK TO GENERAL MVFR LEVELS.

/16

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...AFTER BEING STALLED JUST WEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA ALL DAY...THE COLD FRONT HAS FINALLY STARTED TO
MOVE EAST IN THE PAST HOUR OR SO WITH OBS INDICATING THE FRONT IS
NOW THROUGH PINE BELT MS AND VERY CLOSE TO BUTLER AL. THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE MORE STEADILY EAST THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. LATEST TIMING HAS THE FRONT ALONG THE I-65 CORRIDOR
AROUND 8-9 PM...MOVING THROUGH PENSACOLA AROUND 11PM-MIDNIGHT...AND
PUSHING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 3-4AM. THE LACK
OF ANY UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES HAVE
PRECLUDED ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING TODAY DESPITE
MLCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG. AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE STEADILY TO
THE EAST...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE WHICH WILL SUPPORT A
NARROW BAND OF LOW TOPPED CONVECTION RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...MOST OF THE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BE ELEVATED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT AS A SHORTWAVE SHEARS OUT TO THE NORTH OF REGION. A
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN WILL PERSIST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DEEP LAYER SW
FLOW PERSISTS ATOP THE STEEPENING FRONTAL INVERSION. TEMPS WILL
QUICKLY DROP AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S
IN THE WESTERN ZONES TO UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S OVER THE FAR EASTERN
ZONES.

THE FRONT WILL STALL OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY WITH LOW STRATUS
PERSISTING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. THIS RESULTS IN VERY
LITTLE CLIMB IN TEMPS AND HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER
40S ALONG AND WEST OF I-65 WITH MID 50S TO NEAR 60 ALONG THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST. A STEADY NORTH WIND AT 10-15 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS WILL ALSO ADD AN EXTRA CHILL TO THE AIR. WILL ALSO
MAINTAIN A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THE DAY AS WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT DEVELOPS. AT THE VERY LEAST...PATCHY DRIZZLE IS A DEFINITE
POSSIBILITY. 34/JFB

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...A LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL RETURN TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING MORE FOG BACK TO AREAS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR THE WARM FRONT MOVES
NORTH...IT WILL CREATE ANOTHER LARGE TEMPERATURE CONTRAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHWEST GULF AND MERGE
WITH ANOTHER APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF LATE IN THE DAY ON MONDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO GENERATE OVER-RUNNING RAIN ACROSS THE AREA INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. RAINFALL WILL COME TO AN END EARLY TUESDAY AS UPPER FLOW
BECOMES NORTHWEST AND A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE
AREA. A COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER PATTERN WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL MUCH COLDER ON SATURDAY WITH MOST AREA NOT MAKING
IT OUT OF THE 40S. TEMPS WARM BACK UP ON SUNDAY AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES NORTHWARD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE REACHED EARLY IN THE
DAY WITH FALLING TEMPS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. /13

&&

.MARINE...NOAA PORTS OBS INDICATE VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED TO 1-3
MILES ACROSS WESTERN MOBILE BAY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG IS LIKELY THIS EVENING AS WARM MOIST AIR
PERSISTS AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING...AND WILL CLEAR ALL OF THE FOG
AS IT PASSES THROUGH. A MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH 15-20
KT WINDS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE AL GULF WATERS AND MOBILE
BAY. SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS FURTHER EAST. THE FRONT STALLS JUST TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY...BUT WILL RETREAT BACK TO
THE NORTH ON SUNDAY. THIS RESULTS IN A RETURN TO A LIGHT TO MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW SUNDAY. THE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH FOR GOOD
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING ON TUESDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY WEDNESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
MAY BECOME NECESSARY. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      43  49  45  71  60 /  70  40  40  50  50
PENSACOLA   50  55  51  72  64 /  60  30  30  40  40
DESTIN      57  60  56  72  66 /  50  30  30  30  30
EVERGREEN   45  49  47  74  60 /  70  40  40  50  50
WAYNESBORO  37  47  41  58  50 /  70  40  50  80  80
CAMDEN      42  48  45  68  55 /  70  40  50  70  60
CRESTVIEW   51  57  49  75  63 /  60  30  30  40  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...

&&

$$