Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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781
FXUS64 KMOB 070545
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1145 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE REGION. MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY. LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT
WILL GRADUALLY BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY EVENING. /21

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY/...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT AND INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE FLORIDA FIRST COAST.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BRING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. AND WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE SEEN
TONIGHT. BY SUNRISE SUNDAY...SUB- FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
BE SEEN EVERYWHERE EXCEPT IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS.

WE`LL START LOOKING TO OUR NORTHWEST SUNDAY.  A PERTURBATION IN THE
UPPER ATMOSPHERE SHOULD CARVE AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
PLAINS...WHICH WILL START PUSHING A COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR REGION.
BEFORE THE FRONT`S ARRIVAL...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOW-LEVEL THICKEN...AROUND THE 1000- 850MB
LAYER...APPEAR TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE SEEN TODAY. GIVEN THIS...I
EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE
WE`RE SEEING TODAY WITH MOST PLACES IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S.
GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS AND EXPECTED QUICK MORNING TEMPERATURE RISE...A
FEW SPOTS MAY BE WARMER AND ACTUALLY REACH/BUST THROUGH THE 60 DEGREE
MARK. /BUTTS/

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE SOMEWHAT SUNDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY AS AN UPSTREAM DRY, COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. WE THEN GET THE BENEFIT OF A LITTLE
LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION (WAA). SKIES THOUGH SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR THUS WAA WILL BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY RADIATIONAL COOLING.
THE END RESULT THOUGH SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ABOVE
FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S
AND 40S ALONG THE COAST.

CURRENT TIMING PUTS THE COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
MONDAY MORNING AND THROUGH SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDY CONDITIONS AND COOLING
TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. NO PRECIPITATION IS
ANTICIPATED AND ONLY PATCHY CLOUD COVER IS FORECASTED AS IT PUSHES
THROUGH.

STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION (CAA) BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT WILL
BE OFFSET OVERNIGHT BY WINDY CONDITIONS KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WELL MIXED...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST WHERE WINDS MAY STAY UP ALL
NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT TUESDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOW 30S MOST INLAND LOCATIONS AND IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ALONG
THE COAST. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 40S ON
TUESDAY AS GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND CAA CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO
THE AREA.

MODELS PROJECT THE CAA ENDING TUESDAY EVENING AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH ALOFT SHIFTS EAST AND THE LONG WAVE RIDGE
NUDGES IN FROM THE WEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL STILL BE
CHILLY THOUGH...DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S INLAND AND
THEN MID TO UPPER 30S ALONG THE COAST. /08

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...MILD AND DRY WEATHER IS
PROJECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS WE REMAIN UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD
WILL TREND TOWARD CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO WARM FRIDAY TO NEAR 70
AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH CREATING A SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW OVER THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PROJECTED TO
PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER AIR AND
NORTHERLY WINDS FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE. HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR
NOW BUT CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES AND MAYBE SOME
LIGHT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. /08

MARINE...NOW THROUGH SUNDAY...A TROUGH IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TONIGHT...INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS IN THE
GULF STREAM JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST. THE
RESULTANT INCREASE IN PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE MARINE
AREA...COMBINED WITH LOCAL DRAINAGE EFFECTS...WILL YIELD INCREASED
WIND SPEEDS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS. WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER MID-MORNING SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WILL
LEAVE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
WATERS TONIGHT...BUT TRIM BACK THE EXPIRATION TIME SUNDAY TO 9 AM.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION OVER AREA BAYS AND
INLAND WATERWAYS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF COLD
FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA MONDAY.  INCREASING WIND
SPEEDS AND BUILDING SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH GALE
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER THE GULF (ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20 NM.) MONDAY.
/BUTTS/

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR GMZ650-655-670-
     675.

&&

$$

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