Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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000
FXUS64 KMOB 222041
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
341 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...A SURFACE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL PERSIST AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE MOVES EAST OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A LIGHT SEABREEZE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST BY EARLY EVENING...BUT IT WILL NOT LAST VERY LONG AS
IT ENCOUNTERS A SYNOPTIC NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW AND A STRENGTHENING
LANDBREEZE. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AND
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH THROUGHOUT THE COURSE OF THE DAY SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE...UPPER HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES
AND CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS ANY SIGNIFICANT CLOUD DEVELOPMENT OR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 55 TO 60 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...61 TO
65 DEGREES ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
UPPER 60S AT THE BEACHES. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE AROUND
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...RANGING FROM 85 TO 90 DEGREES...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE LOWER 80S AT THE BEACHES. /22

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER HIGH THAT HAS BECOME
SITUATED OVER FL/GA HANGS TOUGH...DEFLECTING MOST ENERGY FROM A
DISORGANIZING UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WELL NORTHWEST OF
THE LOWER MISS RIVER AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. WITH THE UPPER DYNAMICS
PRETTY STATIC...A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS BECOMES A BIT MORE ORGANIZED...PROVIDING A MORE
ORGANIZED SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY
AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS(INCLUDING THE FA).
SOME OF THE ENERGY EJECTING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS SYSTEM DOES
BEGIN TO MOVE OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

WITH THE MORE ORGANIZED ONSHORE FLOW INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS...AND
UPPER IMPULSED BEGINNING TO MOVE NEAR THE FA LATE IN THE SHORT
TERM...AN INCREASE IN THE CHANCE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED. TEMPS AROUND
SEASONAL EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH DAILY...MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY ON)...MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE DE-EVOLVING
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO STREAM UPPER ENERGY NORTHEAST
OVER THE PLAINS...PUSHING THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
EASTWARD ENOUGH FOR UPPER ENERGY TO MOVE OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER
VALLEY. THE RESULT IS AN INCREASE IN THE CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...WITH HIGHEST CHANCE BEING OVER NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA. LOOKING AT THE CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE FOR THE BEGINNING
OF THE WEEK...ENOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD BE PRESENT OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FA FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO BE
POSSIBLE. SHEAR IS LINEAR AND LIMITED...SO AM NOT EXPECTING ORGANIZED
SYSTEMS. AT THIS POINT...ANY THAT DO DEVELOP COULD BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE...WITH ANY THAT DO MOVING IN A GENERAL NORTHERLY DIRECTION.
HAIL AND WINDS LOOK TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. WITH PRECIP H20
AMOUNTS OF 1.75" TO AROUND 2"...ANY TRAINING CELLS COULD CAUSE LOCAL
WATER PROBLEMS...BUT DO NOT SEE ENOUGH TO HANG A HAT ON AT THIS
POINT.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE LAST OF THE ENERGY FROM THE DE-
EVOLVING SOUTHWESTERN CONUS SYSTEM AND MORE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS HELP TO
CONTINUE TO PUSH THE EASTERN UPPER RIDGE EASTWARD. THE LAST OF PIECES
OFENERGY FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS SYSTEM PASS NORTH OF THE FA
LATE WEDNESDAY AND BECOME LESS OF AN INFLUENCE ON PRECIP
GENERATION...WITH A DECREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WITH THE
DECREASE IN THE CHANCE OF RAIN COMES AN INCREASE IN TEMPS...TO AROUND
OR A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION...
22.18Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS 7 TO 10 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BECOME VARIABLE AROUND 5 KNOTS FROM LATE THE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN INCREASE FROM THE EAST
AT 8 TO 10 KNOTS. /22

&&

.MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW DEVELOPING
THIS EVENING WILL TURN EASTERLY SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN
SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST STATES SHIFTS EAST. AS THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST
OVER MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...THE WIND WILL STRENGTHEN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SEAS WILL ALSO INCREASE OVER THE
GULF...APPROACHING 6 FEET. BAYS AND AREA WATERWAYS WILL BE MOSTLY
CHOPPY. /22


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      61  87  70  87  72 /  05  05  30  40  20
PENSACOLA   65  86  73  86  74 /  05  05  20  30  20
DESTIN      69  86  74  86  75 /  05  05  20  30  20
EVERGREEN   57  88  68  88  69 /  05  05  10  40  10
WAYNESBORO  57  87  66  87  69 /  05  05  10  40  20
CAMDEN      56  87  68  87  69 /  05  05  10  30  10
CRESTVIEW   58  90  68  90  70 /  05  05  20  40  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

22/16


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