Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
000 FXUS64 KMOB 222030 AFDMOB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 229 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)RATHER COMPLEX...BUT WEAK OCCLUDED SYSTEM ACROSS AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL SLOWLY EASE OFF TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. EXPECT PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE TO LINGER INTO THE EVENING BUT WITH LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL MEASURABLE AMOUNTS EXPECTED. EXPECT LOWER CLOUDS TO LINGER INTO MONDAY...POSSIBLY AFTERNOON OVER THE EAST. WILL ALSO HAVE SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF CLOUDS BREAK LATE IN THE DAY AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY CALM MONDAY NIGHT. NEXT SYSTEM COMING TUESDAY EVENING...THEREFORE WILL NOT BE MUCH TIME FOR CLEARING BUT ALSO NOT MUCH TIME FOR MOISTURE TO RETURN. FOR NOW WILL ONLY HAVE SOME LIGHT RAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY POST FRONTAL OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT MORE TRICKY AS THERE IS 5 TO 10 DEGREES DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE THE FIRST 36 HOURS OR SO...THE MET BEING THE COOLER OF THE TWO. WILL SHAVE THE MAV A FEW DEGREES WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. /11 .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM MID WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO RAIN EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 30S AND LOWER 40S TO THE 60S...COOLEST MORNING ON SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OVER THE AREA. /11 && .AVIATION...[18/00Z ISSUANCE]...QUITE A BIT OF LOW STRATUS SPINNING OVER THE DEEP SOUTH ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. BUFR DATA AND TIME HEIGHT FCSTS OF MOISTURE SUGGESTS MAXIMUM WILL RESIDE IN THE 1000-900 MILLIBAR LAYER THRU NEXT 24H. GIVEN WHAT WE ARE SEEING BY THE CLOUD EXPANSE ON SATELLITE AND FCST...WILL USE A BLEND OF LIFR TO LOW END MVFR CIGS. SOME -RA/-DZ BEING SQUEEZED OUT OF THE CLOUDS AND WILL MENTION THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF FCST. PATCHY BR WITH IFR/MVFR RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT. /10 && .MARINE...BROAD...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE DEEP SOUTH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD TONIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME OFFSHORE AND DECREASE AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS. SEAS WILL BE TRENDING LOWER AS WE ENTER THE NEW WEEK. THE HIGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...FORECASTERS ANTICIPATE A FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN ITS WAKE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE PLAINS. A SUBSEQUENT INCREASE IN NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RESULT WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG WITH A BUILDING TREND IN SEAS. THE BETTER DEVELOPED SEAS LOOK TO OCCUR IN THE 20 TO 60 NM ZONES THURSDAY/FRIDAY DUE TO THE DURATION AND STRENGTH OF THE EXPECTED MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY FETCH. /10 && .FIRE WEATHER...COOL AND HUMID TODAY WITH PATCHY FOG AND POSSIBLY SOME DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SOME PATCHES OF FOG AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT. DRIEST AIR WILL BE LATE WEEK WHEN SURFACE HUMIDITY IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 35 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOONS. /11 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MOBILE 48 68 46 71 / 10 05 05 10 PENSACOLA 50 67 50 67 / 10 05 05 10 DESTIN 54 66 53 67 / 10 05 05 10 EVERGREEN 44 65 44 69 / 10 05 05 10 WAYNESBORO 44 65 42 71 / 10 05 05 05 CAMDEN 44 62 44 70 / 10 05 05 10 CRESTVIEW 46 68 42 68 / 10 05 05 10 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. FL...NONE. MS...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$
