Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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000
FXUS64 KMOB 050913
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
400 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...A PIECE OF AN UPPER TROUGH OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD BREAKS OFF AND BEGINS TO MEANDER WEST OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES...FORMING A CLOSED LOW AS IT GOES. ULTIMATELY...
THE CENTER OF THIS LOW ENDS UP OVER THE SC/GA ATLANTIC COAST BY
SUNDAY MORN. AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION MEANDERS A
BIT EASTWARD...OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST...BUILDING A SURFACE RIDGE
EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS SOUTHWEST A BIT...BUT ENOUGH TO BRING A
MORE ORGANIZED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE FA. A WET AIRMASS
STRETCHING FROM OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY SE TO OVER THE
EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE (PRECIP H20 VALUES OF 1.7-2.0") DOESN`T
GET A SIGNIFICANT PUSH...THOUGH AND WITH PIECES OF ENERGY SWIRLING
AROUND THE LOW...THERE IS A HIGHER CHANCE OF RAIN OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA AS APPOSED TO WEST. ALSO...WITH A GULF BREEZE
EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND...THE SOUTH-MOST COUNTIES SEE A HIGHER
CHANCE OF RAIN TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS APPOSED TO INLAND COUNTIES
(WHICH IN SUMMATION...THE NORTHWESTERN QUARTER OF THE FA WILL SEE
THE LOWEST CHANCE OF RAIN TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT).

FOR TEMPS...AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER THE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
MAINTAINS CONTROL TODAY...KEEPING HIGHS A ABOVE SEASONAL (LOW TO MID
90S). COMBINED WITH THE MOIST AIRMASS...HEAT INDICES IN THE LOW 100S
ARE LIKELY TODAY. FOR TONIGHT...LOW REMAIN A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL.
WITH A PIECE OF ENERGY MOVING TOWARDS THE FA...THE DAYTIME SHRA/TSRA
ARE EXPECTED TO LAST WELL INTOT HE EVENING HOURS.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. /16

.LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...AN UPPER LOW WILL RETROGRADE
WESTWARD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
STATES AND INTO THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST
NUMEROUS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...HOWEVER W/ THE
UPPER LOW OVERHEAD...AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND PRECIP WILL
KEEP HIGH TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. /13

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THOUGH
THE FORECAST. SOME LOCAL DROPS IN VISBYS TO MVFR LEVELS AFTER
MIDNIGHT POSSIBLE...BUT AM NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT./16

&&

.MARINE...A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES WILL BRING A MORE ORGANIZED EASTERLY FLOW LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...RESTORING A LIGHT FLOW REGIME OVER THE MARINE AREA. /16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      92  73  89  73  89 /  40  30  40  20  40
PENSACOLA   91  75  86  74  87 /  50  40  40  30  50
DESTIN      91  76  85  75  86 /  40  40  40  30  50
EVERGREEN   94  71  90  70  89 /  40  40  40  20  40
WAYNESBORO  94  72  92  70  90 /  30  30  30  20  30
CAMDEN      94  71  91  71  89 /  30  30  30  20  30
CRESTVIEW   94  71  88  71  89 /  40  40  40  30  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



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