Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 300900

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
400 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.NEAR TERM /Now Through Thursday night/...The axis of an upper trof
extending from near the mouth of the Mississippi river to central
Tennessee finally begins to shift eastward slightly through the
period and also weaken slightly in response to a powerful shortwave
rotating across the Great Lakes region.  Another shortwave, much
weaker, currently advancing from the northwest will move slowly into
the forecast area today, then begin to shear out while moving to
near the coast overnight.  A weak surface trof which currently
extends from near the mouth of the Mississippi river to the
northwest Florida panhandle will shift inland slightly and merge
with a weak and diffuse old frontal boundary located over the
interior portion of the forecast area. The boundary weakens further
overnight and drifts southward to near the coast.  Fairly abundant
deep layer moisture over the region at the beginning of the period
is followed by progressively drier air working into the area from
the north through tonight. Precipitable water values initially range
from 1.5 inches over the interior portion to around 2.0 inches near
the coast, then trend downwards to near 1.0 inches over the interior
portion to 1.75 inches near the coast, values which are 70 percent
to 115 percent of normal, respectively.

The best chances for convection will be generally over the southern
portion of the forecast area today as the weak surface trof merges
with the old boundary, followed by pops retreating to mainly near
the coast overnight as the drier air works into the area and the old
boundary weakens and shifts southward.  MLCapes increase to 1000-
1500 over the coastal counties today, with progressively lower
values further inland.  Shear values remain very low, so expect
another day where some storms may become strong with strong wind
gusts and frequent lightning.  While the deep layer moisture will be
decreasing, values remain sufficiently high when combined with a
slow storm motion to maintain a risk of locally heavy rainfall
mainly over the southern portion of the area through the afternoon
hours.  Highs today will be in the lower 90s except from upper 80s
near the coast.  Lows tonight will range from the mid/upper 70s near
the coast to the mid/upper 60s well inland. /29

.SHORT TERM /Friday Through Saturday night/...An upper ridge becomes
more organized over the northern Gulf coast, but a piece of energy
from the current upper trough over the southeast remains, adding a
wrinkle or two to this portion of the forecast. With the upper ridge
building, a surface ridge builds west over the Gulf of Mexico. For
Friday into Saturday, subsidence from the upper ridge helps to
depress the chances of rain as the shortwave meandering around over
the northern Gulf Coast shifts east of the fa, along with bringing
temps on the increase. Highs Friday generally in the low to mid 90s
expected, with lows generally in the low to mid 70s due to the very
high moisture levels from the southerly flow.

Sunday, the shortwave shifts west over the northern Gulf a bit,
providing a bit of upper help to tsra development along and south of
the Gulf coast. Temps inland rise into the mid 90s Saturday, cooler
closer to the coast, with best chance of rain expected to be closer
to the coast as a drier air moves south over the northern half of the
fa, decreasing any available daytime instability for tsra

With the temps on the rise, heat indices rise back into the 99 to
105 degree range for Saturday and Sunday.


.LONG TERM /Sunday Through Wednesday/...Sunday through Monday,
shortwave energy moving over the mid-Mississippi River Valley begins
to weaken the upper ridge over the northern Gulf Coast, and with
southerly flow moistening up the entire airmass over the fa (GFS is
advertising precip h20 values around or a bit above 2.0"), the chance
of tsra increases over the fa, especially over northern portions.
Temps drop generally in the 90-95 degree range for highs, low to mid
70s for lows.

Monday night through Wednesday, the shortwave energy moves east, to
over the Eastern Seaboard as and upper ridge builds over the Desert
Southwest. The GFS is advertising a stronger shortwave system closer
to the fa than the ECMWF. With the upper energy/trough closer to the
fa, the GFS is advertising a cooler, wetter solution than the ECMWF.
for the forecast, have tried to go between the two solutions for the
forecast, resulting in temps a bit above seasonal, the chance of rain
around seasonal.


.MARINE...A weak trough of low pressure meanders near the coast
through tonight before moving well off to the north as high pressure
builds over the Gulf.  A light to moderate southwesterly flow
prevails through Monday, except for becoming northerly near the
coast late each night through Saturday morning.  Scattered to
numerous showers and storms today will be followed by lower rain
chances for the remainder of the period.  The stronger storms will
produce gusty winds, locally higher waves and frequent lightning. /29


Mobile      90  72  93  75 /  50  20  30  20
Pensacola   88  75  91  78 /  70  40  30  30
Destin      87  76  87  80 /  70  40  40  30
Evergreen   91  69  96  73 /  40  20  20  10
Waynesboro  93  68  97  72 /  20  10  20   0
Camden      94  69  96  72 /  20  20  20   0
Crestview   90  72  93  75 /  70  40  40  20


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