Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 012211
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
411 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND MONDAY)...CURRENT SFC OBSERVATIONS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A COLD FRONT JUST WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER...MOVING STEADILY EASTWARD. MODELS VERY SIMILAR IN MOVING THIS
FRONT TOWARD AND INTO THE FCST AREA THIS EVENING AND THEN ACROSS AND
EAST OF THE FCST AREA BEFORE 12Z SUNDAY. LIGHTNING AND RADAR DATA
INDICATES A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL MOVE
EAST TOWARD THE AREA THIS EVENING. MODEST INSTABILITY IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT (MAINLY TO THE WEST OF OUR FCST AREA) LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BECOME WEAKER AFTER SUNSET. SO WHILE SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD PERSIST AND AFFECT WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA THIS
EVENING...THEY WILL LIKELY BE ON A WEAKENING TREND. SOME ISOLATED SVR
STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO THE WEST OF OUR FCST
AREA...BUT NO SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED IN OUR AREA...ALTHOUGH SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN
HALF OF FCST AREA. OTHERWISE...AFTER THE FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS
EARLIER TODAY...THE ENTIRE FCST AREA WILL SEE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE ENDING WITH THE
WINDSHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE FAST MOVING AS IT CROSSES THE
REGION...SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE 0.25 INCHES OR LESS
(ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS COULD OCCUR). SKIES CLEARING FROM
WEST TO EAST ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S
AND LOWER 40S OVER NORTHERN INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA TO THE
MID TO UPPER 40S DOWN TOWARD THE COAST. MUCH COOLER DAYTIME TEMPS ON
MONDAY...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S (AND
FEELING EVEN A LITTLE COOLER WITH A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND). 12/DS

(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...CLEAR CONDITIONS TUESDAY AS
THAT FRONT WHICH WILL HAVE PASSED US EARLIER MONDAY MORNING CONTINUES
MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. A ROBUST SURFACE HIGH WILL
RIDGE FROM THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES BY TUESDAY MORNING...THEN WEAKENING SLIGHTLY. THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES MOVES EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC ON MONDAY
FOLLOWED BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. EXPECTING DRY
CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDNIGHT TUESDAY.

THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST INTO SOUTH TEXAS. WE EXPECT WARM AIR ISENTROPIC UPSLOPE MOTION
OVERRUNNING THE COLD AIR ON THE WEST EDGE OF THE HIGH WHICH WILL
BRING INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE CONSIDERABLY BELOW NORMAL...LOW 30S TUESDAY
MORNING AND MID 50S TUESDAY AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 20S MOST LOCATIONS. BD/77

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...ROBUST SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL RIDGE WEST AS FAR AS TEXAS.
THIS FEATURE WILL BREAK DOWN AS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS BEGINS OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FORMS A SURFACE LOW MOVING EAST. WILL
START WITH COLD RAIN WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL LAST INTO OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY. GFS AND EURO MODEL OUTPUTS FOR THE 01.12Z RUNS ARE LITTLE
DIFFERENT FROM THAT THEY WERE FOR 01.00Z. THE EURO APPEARS 12 TO 15
HOURS FASTER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH EVOLUTION AND TRACK AS OPPOSED TO
THE GFS...PLACING IT NEAR TO HE SOUTH OF DESTIN ABOUT 80 TO 100 MILES
THURSDAY MORNING...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME THE GFS HAS IT WELL SOUTH
OFFSHORE BETWEEN SOUTHWEST PASS AND VERMILLION BAY LOUISIANA...BY
ABOUT 200 MILES. WE USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR NOW UNTIL CLOSER
TRACKS AND TIMING ARE OUTPUT. IN ANY CASE IT LOOKS LIKE WEDNESDAY
WILL START OUT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MORNING SHOWERS BECOMING A
CHANCE AND SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.
POPS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN THE
RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF THEREAFTER FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE LOW MOVES EAST AND COLD DRY AIR
SURGES IN. SOME LIGHT RAIN COULD LINGER INTO THURSDAY EVENING IN OUR
NORTHERN ZONES. EVENT RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG THE
BEACHES CLOSEST TO THE SURFACE LOW AVERAGING AN INCH AND DECREASING
FURTHER INLAND AND BETWEEN THE COAST AND INTERSTATE 10... ABOUT 0.75
INCHES TO AN INCH...AND BETWEEN 0.3 AND 0.75 INCHES ELSEWHERE. STRONG
SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION FOR THE
REST OF THIS WEEK AND WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...INCLUDING THE LOW TO MID 20S NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10. BD /77

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE COASTAL WATERS FROM THE WEST
THIS EVENING AND MOVES EAST ACROSS THE MARINE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
VERY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BECOMES STRONG NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH SEAS TRENDING HIGHER. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
STATES THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WITH WINDS DECREASING AND
SEAS SUBSIDING. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF ON THURSDAY. A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE MARINE AREA LATE IN THE
PERIOD WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW TO THE SOUTH...WITH SEAS AGAIN
TRENDING HIGHER. 12/DS

&&

.AVIATION...02/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH MOST
OF THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD...BRIEFLY LOWER IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING. AFTER 02/06Z THROUGH AROUND 02/12Z
CIGS/FOG AT IFR CRITERIA...THEN IMPROVING AFTER 12Z MONDAY. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT...SHIFTING TO STRONGER NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
ESPECIALLY AFTER 12Z MONDAY. 12/DS

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      41  51  31  53  40 /  70  05  00  10  20
PENSACOLA   44  53  34  54  43 /  80  05  00  10  20
DESTIN      47  56  37  53  46 /  80  05  00  10  10
EVERGREEN   40  49  29  56  37 /  80  05  05  10  10
WAYNESBORO  40  49  27  55  36 /  90  05  00  10  10
CAMDEN      39  48  26  56  34 /  80  05  05  10  10
CRESTVIEW   45  53  31  55  38 /  80  05  00  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL
     TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...

&&

$$




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