Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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000
FXUS64 KMOB 300947
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
447 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
AREA OF LOW CLOUDS OVER EASTERN THIRD OF FCST AREA WILL GRADUALLY
BURN OFF THIS MORNING...WITH GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES EXPECTED FOR MOST OF TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS NOTED OVER THE GULF
WATERS TO THE SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND EXPECT
ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TODAY (RAIN CHANCES 20
PERCENT OR LESS) PRIMARILY OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF THE FCST AREA
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST OF THE REGION MOVES OFF INTO
THE ATLANTIC AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE INTO OUR AREA FROM THE
NORTH. DAYTIME MAX TEMPS CONTINUE TO MODERATE SLIGHTLY...WITH HIGHS
TODAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS (EXCEPT FOR A FEW
UPPER 80S OVER WESTERN ZONES AND SOME LOWER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST). MIN TEMPS TONIGHT SIMILAR TO THOSE OF THIS MORNING...WITH
LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S OVER NORTHERN INTERIOR COUNTIES TO
THE UPPER 60S OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. A FEW LOWER 70S POSSIBLE
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 12/DS

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS
MOVES OFF AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MOVES EAST
OVER THE ROCKIES TO OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE PLAINS. THIS WESTERN
ENERGY PUSHES A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
EASTWARD...SPREADING ORGANIZED ONSHORE FLOW EASTWARD OVER THE LOWER
MISS RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BY
THURSDAY EVENING...GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN PUSHING A FRONT EAST
OVER THE PLAINS TO NEAR THE MISS RIVER VALLEY. MOISTURE IS ON THE
INCREASE...THOUGH IS LIMITED. REASON IS A LACK OF "BREATHING IN"
(READ LIMITED DEEPENING) BY A SURFACE LOW THAT MOVES FROM OVER WEST
TX/OK/KS TO NEAR THE GREAT LAKES.

FOR THE FORECAST...WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW INCREASING...TEMPS RISE TO
WELL ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN INCREASES INTO
THURSDAY...TO ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT ON)...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...THE WESTERN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS EAST...WITHT HE BULK OF THE
ENERGY ORGANIZING INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE US/CA PLAINS BORDER.
CURRENT 00Z GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING THE WIND-SHIFT PORTION OF THE
COMING FRONT CROSSING TO OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FA BY 00Z
FRIDAY EVENING...AND WELL SOUTH OF THE FA BY SATURDAY MORNING.

STILL DO NOT FEEL WE WILL SEE ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER. STILL
LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME TSRA TO BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE. WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO BE LACKING(<100 M^2/S^2) AND ANY
UPPER SUPPORT REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE FA.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A
SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS EXCHANGE BEHIND THE FRONT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE FA LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GETS PUSHED QUICKLY EAST BY A SHORTWAVE MOVING
SE OVER THE PLAINS. THE ECMWF IS SLOWEST TO MOVE THIS SURFACE LOW
OVER...THEN EAST OF THE FA...THUS LEAVES THE COLDEST PART OF THE
AIRMASS LONGER OVER THE FA. THIS RESULTS IN THE ECMWF ADVERTISING
TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE LOW 50S SOUTH TO LOWS 40S NORTH. THE GFS IS
ADVERTISING TEMPS DROPPING ABOUT ONE CATEGORY HIGHER...MID 50S SOUTH
TO MID 40S NORTH BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. WITH BOTH MODELS ADVERTISING THE
CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING EAST OF THE FA (OR WELL EAST IN
THE CASE OF THE FA)...TEMPS START TO INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
WITH EITHER MODEL SCENARIO LIKELY...HAVE BLENDED OUT THE DIFFERENCES
WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS. EITHER WAY...THE FIRST SIGNIFICANTLY COOL
NIGHT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE ENERGY IN THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH NOW
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS LIFTS OUT...ALLOWING AN UPPER RIDGE STRETCHING
WEST OVER THE GULF OF MEX TO SHIFT NORTH MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY SWEEPS THROUGH THE EASTERN TROUGH...DEEPENING
IT AGAIN AND PUSHING A FRONT NEAR(GFS) OR OVER(ECMWF) THE FA.
GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE SPREAD...EVEN WITH THE BOUNDARY...TO LIMIT
TEMPS...SO TEMPS REBOUNDING TO A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...
30/12Z ISSUANCE...IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING DUE TO LOW CIGS RANGING FROM
AROUND 500 TO 1500 FEET WITH GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH THE BKN/OVC LOW CLOUD DECK
BREAKING UP. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE NORTHEAST AT 6 TO 8 KNOTS
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TODAY...EXCEPT FOR SHIFTING SOUTHEAST AT 5
TO 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. 12/DS

&&

.MARINE...A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM JUST OFF THE FLORIDA
EAST COAST EXTENDS WESTWARD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF EARLY THIS
MORNING. STRONGER LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SE US ATLANTIC
COAST LATER TODAY...WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING DOWN INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND MOVING EAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AS THIS OCCURS A LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW OVER
THE MARINE AREA THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO A MORE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST FLOW AS WE GET INTO LATE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE MARINE AREA LATE FRIDAY...WITH A MODERATE TO STRONG
OFFSHORE NWLY FLOW (ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS) EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
ITS WAKE. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      86  68  87  72  87 /  20  10  10  10  50
PENSACOLA   85  71  87  74  86 /  20  10  10  10  40
DESTIN      84  72  86  73  85 /  20  10  10  10  30
EVERGREEN   85  63  90  66  88 /  05  10  10  10  40
WAYNESBORO  87  64  90  69  87 /  05  10  10  20  50
CAMDEN      85  63  90  67  89 /  05  10  05  10  40
CRESTVIEW   85  65  89  67  89 /  10  10  10  10  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

12/16





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