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000
FXUS64 KMOB 310828
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
328 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...MOBILE AND PENSACOLA BOTH BROKE
RECORD LOWS THIS MORNING AS AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND DRY AIRMASS
RESIDES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS WILL COME TO AN END
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS MOISTURE LEVELS SLOWLY INCREASE. MID AND HIGH
LEVELS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. WHILE A FEW SPRINKLES
ARE POSSIBLE...A RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL DRY AIRMASS WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES LOW TODAY. DUE TO THE INCREASING CLOUDS...KEPT MAX TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES BELOW MAV GUIDANCE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S.
MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE TONIGHT AS DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. LOW WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 60S INLAND TO AROUND 70 NEAR THE COAST. /13

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK: NONE

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE AXIS OF THE EASTERN STATES
LONGWAVE TROF REMAINS WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE A SURFACE LOW
OVER LOUISIANA GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES ON SATURDAY WHILE A
WEAKER SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA LIKEWISE
DISSIPATES ON SATURDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES EXTENDS WELL INTO THE CENTRAL GULF BUT ADVANCES NORTHWARD
DURING THE PERIOD AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
ON SATURDAY. ADDING SOME COMPLEXITY TO THE SURFACE PATTERN IS A
SURFACE TROF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN
THE TWO SURFACE LOWS ON FRIDAY WHICH IS REPLACED BY THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ON SATURDAY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...FROM NEAR 1.7 INCHES FRIDAY MORNING TO 2.0-2.1
INCHES ON SATURDAY. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER
TROF AND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND WITH THE SURFACE
FEATURES AND STEADILY INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...WILL HAVE
CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY TRENDING SOMEWHAT HIGHER
TO CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS ON SATURDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL TREND
FROM NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE VALUES ON FRIDAY TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONABLE VALUES ON SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE VALUES. /29

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...THE LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE
EASTERN STATES WEAKENS TO A WEAK UPPER TROF OVER THE REGION BY
WEDNESDAY AND ADVANCES EASTWARD SOMEWHAT...WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
REMAINS HIGH ON SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES
BUT THEN DECREASING GRADUALLY TO 1.3-1.7 INCHES LATER IN THE PERIOD
WITH LOWER VALUES WELL INLAND.  THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED
NEAR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA SHIFTS SOUTHWARD INTO
THE GULF ON SUNDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE INTERIOR
EASTERN STATES.  THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY RETURNS TO NEAR THE COAST BY
TUESDAY MORNING BUT LOOKS TO FINALLY DISSIPATE LATER ON TUESDAY AS
SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN GULF AND ESTABLISHES A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA.  CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE
POPS CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY THEN CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR MOST OF THE
AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
OVER THE NORTHERNMOST PORTION WHERE LESS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE
PRESENT.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE
VALUES ON SUNDAY THEN TREND GRADUALLY WARMER TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONABLE VALUES THROUGH THE PERIOD. /29

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION BY THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
WEAK...RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS AND LOWS SEAS. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. /13

&&

.AVIATION (12Z ISSUANCE)...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
/13

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO THE LOWER 30S
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA NORTH OF THE COAST BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS AND NOT SATISFY OTHER CRITERIA.  AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      90  68  91  71  92 /  10  05  30  20  40
PENSACOLA   90  72  91  75  92 /  05  05  20  20  40
DESTIN      88  75  89  75  90 /  05  05  20  20  40
EVERGREEN   90  66  90  67  92 /  10  05  30  20  50
WAYNESBORO  89  65  89  67  91 /  20  20  30  20  40
CAMDEN      89  65  89  67  92 /  10  20  30  20  50
CRESTVIEW   92  66  92  68  93 /  05  05  20  20  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$