Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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000
FXUS64 KMOB 020424 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1120 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION [02.06Z TAF ISSUANCE]...HIGH BASE CLOUD DEBRIS FROM
DECAYED STORMS OVER MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA PERSISTS OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST. VFR CONDITIONS WITH CIG BASES MAINLY AT MID TO
HIGH LEVELS. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND OVERNIGHT. /10

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...VERY LITTLE SYNOPTIC CHANGE
DURING NEXT 24 HOURS. ESSENTIALLY...THE WESTWARD EXTENSION OF THE
BERMUDA HIGH THAT HAS BEEN RETROGRADING EVER SO SLIGHTLY INTO OUR
AREA FROM THE EAST CUTS OFF INTO A CLOSED HIGH PRESSURE CELL OVER
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE LOWER PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
EXPERIENCES A MOISTURE INCREASE OVERNIGHT DUE TO VERY SUBTLE MOISTURE
ADVECTION BETWEEN AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE CELL TO OUR EAST AND
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN SRN PLAINS. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SLIGHTLY
TOMORROW BACK INTO SCATTERED CATEGORY REGION WIDE (AND 40-50% ALONG NW
FL PANHANDLE SEA-BREEZE). THERE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A GENERAL
NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW
BEGINNING FIRST ALONG THE COAST BY NOON AND PROPAGATING INLAND WITH
TIME. BASED ON PERFORMANCE OF LAST NIGHT`S MIN TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO
GUIDANCE...WENT A TAD CLOSER TO COOLER MAV GUIDANCE. MAX TEMPS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 90S DEG(F) OVER THE
INTERIOR TO NEAR 89 DEG(F) ALONG THE BEACHES. /23 JMM

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...WHILE MID LEVEL RIDGING
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE WEEK...DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE ABUNDANT ACROSS THE REGION WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES HOVERING AROUND 2 INCHES FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. IN
ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY OF STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IN THE MID LEVELS WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG EXPECTED
EACH DAY. THEREFORE...EXPECT DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH THE FOCUS OVER THE
COASTAL COUNTIES IN THE MORNING ALONG THE DEVELOPING SEABREEZE WITH
COVERAGE INCREASING IN THE AFTERNOON FURTHER INLAND. STORMS WILL
QUICKLY DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING HOURS...BUT AN ISOLATED STORM IS
POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE MORNING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

BY THE WEEKEND...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AND
SHIFT WEST TOWARD TEXAS AS ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVES ACROSS
THE MID WEST INTO NEW ENGLAND. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
CONSISTENTLY SHOWN A SFC TROUGH DRAPED OVER OUR REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND THAT WILL SERVE AS AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION. SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SAT/SUN IN THE
PRESENCE OF THIS TROUGH...THE SLIGHTLY WEAKER UPPER RIDGING...AND
PERSISTENT PRECIPITABLE WATERS NEAR 2 INCHES.

HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WED/THU WILL COOL A FEW DEGREES FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...A
LITTLE WARMER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE BY NEXT MONDAY ON HOW FAST THE RIDGING
BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA. WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES AT THIS
TIME...MAINTAINING A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED DIURNAL STORMS WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. 34/JFB

MARINE...THE 8 SEC SWELL IS DRIVING THE BULK OF THE 3-4 FEET SIG
WAVE HEIGHTS WITH MAINLY SLOW ROLLERS (ALSO SUPPORTED BY WEB CAMS
AROUND THE REGION). THIS SHOULD SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT THROUGH NEXT 24
HOURS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FORMED BY THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO
OUR NORTH AND THE LOW PRESSURE IN THE SW GLFMEX DECREASES.
OTHERWISE... REGION GENERALLY REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
WESTWARD EXTENSION OF THE BERMUDA RIDGE THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
THE PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST WINDS OF THE LAST FEW DAYS DECREASE IN SPEED
ON WEDNESDAY...AND ARE EVEN ENE-NE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD AS THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CELL CLOSES OFF JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. WINDS
THEN RETURN TO AN ESE-SE DIRECTION BETWEEN MID- AND LATE-WEEK. NO
HAZARDS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. /23 JMM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      75  92  74  93  74 /  10  30  20  40  20
PENSACOLA   76  90  76  93  76 /  10  30  20  40  20
DESTIN      78  90  80  91  78 /  10  20  20  30  20
EVERGREEN   71  94  72  95  71 /  10  40  20  40  20
WAYNESBORO  72  93  72  94  71 /  10  40  20  40  20
CAMDEN      72  94  71  95  71 /  10  30  20  40  20
CRESTVIEW   70  95  72  95  70 /  10  50  20  40  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$











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