177
FXUS64 KSJT 090749
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
249 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

As upper level ridging continues to break down through the day
today, a shortwave troughing regime will begin to shift east out
of the southern Rockies and into the Plains. As we move into the
late afternoon and evening hours, upper level clouds are expected
to increase across the area with winds out of the south staying
elevated in velocity through much of the overnight period. This
will help overnight lows across the area stay in the low to mid
70s. Overnight tonight, a cold front is expected to drop south
into the Red River region just north of the area. Here it is
expected to stall out during the day on Sunday. A surface low out
in eastern New Mexico will keep our surface flow out of the
southeast, bolstering the already ample low level moisture we have
across much of the region. As the shortwave trough makes more
progress into the area by the afternoon, scattered showers and
thunderstorms may develop, especially around the Permian Basin,
but realistically diurnal activity could pop up anywhere with the
greatest axis of instability draped across eastern portions of our
area. The bulk of the activity will likely be outside of the
short-term forecast after 00Z Monday but isolated development
around 21Z Sunday is certainly possible. The main hindrance to any
severe activity will be the lack of effective shear across the
area, forecasted around 20 kts during the afternoon. This would
support more multicellular storm modes but some isolated instances
of large hail and damaging winds can`t be ruled out. As such, SPC
has added all of West Central Texas into a Marginal for their Day
2 Convective Outlook. Temperatures for tomorrow will be
comparable to today with our western zones in the upper 90s to to
around 103 with mid 90s across our eastern counties.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Showers and thunderstorm chances will carry-over into Monday and
Tuesday this week as an upper-level shortwave trough tracks across
West Central Texas through Tuesday evening. This additional
precipitation and cloud cover will allow for some cooler
temperatures Monday and Tuesday, with afternoon high temperatures
reaching into the mid 80s to mid 90s. Overnight low temperatures
will fall into the upper 60s to mid 70s as well. A warming trend
will begin mid-week as ridging aloft begins to build back over
the area, bringing warmer and drier conditions back to the area
through the rest of the work week and into the weekend. High
temperatures by the end of the week will be back in the mid 90s to
around 102.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Some stratus is expected to develop over the Texas Hill Country
towards daybreak, with some of this possibly reaching the KJCT
terminal during the early morning hours. Will maintain a TEMPO
MVFR group this forecast cycle and monitor trends overnight.
Otherwise, expect VFR conditions to prevail across the terminals.
Convection may develop west of the area late this afternoon and
early evening, and possibly affecting the KSJT terminal towards
the end of the forecast period. However, confidence remains too
low to consider mentioning at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     97  70  87  69 /  10  40  50  30
San Angelo 101  70  90  70 /  20  40  50  30
Junction   100  71  93  71 /  10  30  40  20
Brownwood   94  71  87  69 /   0  20  30  20
Sweetwater  99  70  85  69 /  20  60  50  30
Ozona       98  70  90  69 /  10  30  40  30
Brady       94  70  87  70 /  10  20  40  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TP
AVIATION...24