519
FXUS66 KOTX 061139
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
439 AM PDT Thu Jun 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Quiet weather is expected over the next couple days as high
pressure builds over the region. The weekend will be very warm
with afternoon temperatures in the 80s and 90s. A weak weather
system Sunday looks to bring a chance for showers and possibly
strong thunderstorms to the region. Above normal temperatures
continues into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Saturday night: A ridge of high pressure will
strengthen over the next few days bringing the warmest temperatures
that we`ve seen this year to date. The ridge amplifies Friday into
Saturday as an upper level trough of lower in the Gulf of Alaska
pumps up the ridge over the Northwest. The amplification has been
dampened a bit by the ensembles since 24 hours prior though. This
has led to a 2-4 degree drop of the forecast highs Friday and
Saturday. Temperatures still look to peak over the weekend with
highs in the 80s over much of the region. Warmer locations such as
the Okanogan Valley, Wenatchee Area, Moses Lake Area, and
Lewiston- Clarkston Valley will warm up into the lower 90s by
Saturday. Minor to moderate heat risk is expected into the
weekend. People should be vigilant about keeping hydrated and
drinking plenty of water. Also to seek a cooler environment such
as a well ventilated and air conditioned building if outdoors
during peak heating hours and feeling the onset of heat
exhaustion. It`s recommended to refrain from performing strenuous
activities outdoors in the mid afternoon during peak heating.
Below is the probability for greater than 85 degrees, 90 degrees
and 95 degrees for Saturday off of the National Blend of Models
(NBM). Notice that these percentages have adjusted down since 24
hours prior:

* 85 degrees - Spokane: 85-90%, Sandpoint: 20-25%, Omak: near 100%,
  Wenatchee: near 100%, Moses Lake: near 100%, Lewiston: near 100%,
  Pullman/Moscow: 40-45%

* 90 degrees - Spokane: 40-45%, Sandpoint: near 0%, Omak: 85-90%,
  Wenatchee: 75-80%, Moses Lake: 90%, Lewiston: 95%, Pullman-
  Moscow: < 5%

* 95 degrees - Spokane: < 5%, Sandpoint: 0%, Omak: 15%, Wenatchee:
  15%, Moses Lake: 35%, Lewiston: 30%, Pullman-Moscow: 0%

Saturday night into Sunday morning will remain mild as high clouds
are expected to pass over the region with temperatures slower to
cool than usual. Expect low temperatures to range in the mid 50s to
the mid 60s.

Sunday and Sunday night: Ensembles are coming into better agreement
with a weak shortwave disturbance moving across Sunday afternoon.
There will be modest dynamics and surface based instability for the
afternoon. This instability will be influenced a bit by higher
clouds delaying our warming early in the day; however, the consensus
is that these higher clouds should clear the region by mid afternoon
with ample time for the surface to warm up and destabilize by the
late afternoon and evening hours. Focus for convection looks to be
across the northern mountains and also across the extreme southeast
portion of the region from the Northeast Blues, Camas Prairie, and
into the southern to central Idaho Panhandle. These areas will see
the best chances for surface based CAPEs in the range of 500-1000
J/kg and a 25% chance for thunderstorms. Bulk shear in the 0-6 km
layer of 30-40 kts would support the potential for strong
thunderstorms and even isolated severe. The Spokane/Coeur d`Alene
area will see a 20% chance for thunderstorms as well. It`s not a
classic severe weather pattern though. The shortwave doesn`t have a
negative tilt to it (like what the operational GFS had been showing
with previous model runs), and instability/shear profiles are modest
at best. It`s definitely something to continue monitoring though.
Main threats will be for clouds to ground lightning, gusty outflow
winds, and hail.

Monday through Thursday: The longwave pattern is trending zonal than
ridgy. Temperatures look to remain above normal, but in the range of
5-8 degrees above normal. Expect and extended period of warm
temperatures, but definitely nothing that is looking significant for
mid June. Minor heat risk will continue, which means that sensitive
groups may continue to have heat related impacts. Now is a good time
to test out those air conditioners before we start to see more in
the way of heat later into July and August. The upper level trough
will nudge closer to the Northwest, and this will bring a minor
chance (generally less than 10%) for showers across the northern
mountains. Uncertainty remains in the extended however, and there
is still potential for the ridge to remain more amplified with
temperatures a bit warmer than forecast. /SVH

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: VFR conditions with terrain driven winds are expected
across the Inland Northwest as high pressure builds. A weak
weather system moving across British Columbia will result in
passing high level clouds today. Westerly winds will increase to
between 10-15 kts at KEAT around 00Z. Further out, next potential
for convective showers and thunderstorms will be this weekend and
particularly on Sunday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
Confidence remains high for VFR conditions into the weekend.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,
please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        79  51  82  53  85  58 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Coeur d`Alene  77  51  79  51  84  56 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Pullman        76  51  79  52  84  57 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Lewiston       86  59  89  59  92  64 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Colville       78  46  82  43  86  51 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      75  49  79  49  83  54 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        75  54  78  55  84  59 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Moses Lake     86  54  88  55  92  62 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      85  56  86  60  90  66 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           83  52  85  53  91  59 /  10   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$