775
FXUS63 KLMK 030659
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
259 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

*   Saturated ground, clear skies, and calm winds causing patchy
    dense fog this morning. Conditions will improve after sunrise.

*   Warm and muggy Monday, with temperatures in the mid- and upper-
    80s.

*   Scattered to numerous storms will be possible Tuesday and
    Wednesday. A few strong to severe storms will be possible,
    especially Wednesday. The main threats will be heavy downpours
    and gusty winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 257 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Mostly clear skycover is across the region this morning as low-
amplitude ridging and sfc high pressure sets in. Along with calm
winds and saturated soils after our recent rains, patchy dense fog
is developing across portions of the region. The more impactful fog
will be across the Bluegrass and east of I-65 where the higher
rainfall totals were yesterday. Morning fog will burn off after
sunrise.

Upper ridging and high pressure will keep our weather dry today,
though the break from rain will be brief. WAA regime with SSW winds
will make it warm and muggy, with temperatures in the mid- and upper-
80s, and dewpoints in the mid-60s. A condensed mid-level wave will
be slowly approaching the lower Ohio Valley from Arkansas later
today, which will promote some scattered precip activity across
western Kentucky and Tennessee by the late afternoon and evening.
It`s possible we could see a cell or two sneak into our CWA, but
chances remain low. Will keep a dry forecast going until the very
end of the Short Term period.

For tonight, expect to see increasing cloud cover again as the mid-
level wave approaches from the southwest. We`ll be dry through most
of the night, but will eventually introduce a slight chance (less
than 25%) PoP for our counties west of I-65 by 10z Tuesday morning.
We`ll have a low level inversion keeping us stable at the sfc, but
instability aloft will support a general isolated thunder mention.
PoPs will continue to spread eastward through Tuesday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 257 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Dry weather will continue into Monday night, with some patchy valley
fog possible in the Blue Grass and Lake Cumberland regions with
mostly clear skies and nearly calm winds. Lows will be in the lower
and middle 60s.

Rain chances return on Tuesday as a small 5H vort max crosses
Illinois helping to spark showers and storms in 1.75" precipitable
water air. Shear and mid-level lapse rates will be weak, but there
will be enough instability to get thunderstorms going in the
afternoon as the mercury meets or slightly exceeds convective
temperatures in the middle 80s with dew points in the middle and
upper 60s. Scattered pulse storms are expected, with the most likely
threats, other than the lightning threat that accompanies all
thunderstorms, being locally heavy downpours and precipitation
loading induced gusty winds.

On Wednesday vapor transport from the western Gulf will increase
into the Ohio Valley ahead of a cold front approaching from the
northwest. A spoke of lower 5H heights reaching southeast from the
main upper low over southern Manitoba will reach southeast into our
region as well. Deep layer shear may be a little stronger on
Wednesday in association with swifter 500mb flow south of the
Manitoba low, but still shouldn`t be terribly impressive. CAPE is
progged to be a bit weaker on Wednesday with continuing weak mid-
level lapse rates, possibly partly a result of morning clouds and
showers. CSU-ML has been very consistent over the past four days
pegging Wednesday as our most likely day for severe weather this
week. This is still the case, but probabilities have decreased
slightly. The best upper level divergence will remain well to our
north, and the surface low will be far off in western Ontario.
Nevertheless, we`ll still have plenty of instability and moisture
for showers and storms, and with the incoming cold front, some
strong to severe storms do still appear possible. Again the main
threat would be gusty winds given the expected pulse nature of the
storms and high freezing heights.

Thursday through Sunday will lean drier as the Canadian upper low
pushes east into New England and surface high pressure tries to
build in from the Plains and Midwest. Will hold on to some chance of
rain given our position on the edge of cyclonic flow aloft, but will
keep PoPs low.

Temperatures will cool off a bit as we head into the weekend. Highs
are expected to slip from the mid 80s Thursday to around 80 Friday
and Saturday. CPC outlooks show increased chances of cooler than
normal temperatures for much of the first two weeks of the month.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 141 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Calm winds and mostly clear skies have promoted patchy fog
development this morning, which is impacting some terminals. Through
the predawn hours, fog could reduce vis to IFR or even LIFR for a
few hours. After sunrise, we should begin to see improvements to
flight categories, eventually returning to VFR by mid-morning. VFR
conditions will continue for the rest of the period, with winds
mainly from the south and under 8kts.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CJP
LONG TERM...BJS
AVIATION...CJP