Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 261746

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
146 PM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Short Term (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017


A warm sunny day is expected today courtesy of a strong southerly
flow in between a ridge to our east and a deep trough to our west.
South winds of 10-15 mph will gust to around 25 mph this afternoon.
High temps should top out in the lower 80s.

Tonight - Thursday...

Tonight the upper trough will lift northeast over the central CONUS
pushing a cold front through the Ohio Valley.  This will bring a
decaying line of showers and t-storms through central KY/southern IN
late tonight into Thu morning.  With most of the forcing for ascent
getting pulled NE and limited instability, think that any storms Thu
night will probably remain below severe limits.  However, can`t rule
out a strong storm with gusty winds and brief heavy rainfall. Lows
tonight will range through the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Showers/storms will exit the area by Thu early afternoon with skies
becoming partly cloudy.  Highs in the post-frontal airmass should
range from the mid 60s to low 70s.

.Long Term (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 335 AM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017

Friday - Saturday...

Fri/Sat a low pressure system will deepen over the south central
U.S. resulting in a warm front developing near our region.  This
front will sharpen and wobble a bit Fri/Sat resulting in several
precip chances for the end of the week.  Depending on the exact
evolution of this front and the warm sector, a chance for strong
storms could exist especially along and south of the front. Highs
Fri/Sat will range from the upper 70s to mid 80s with bust potential
depending on exact location of the warm front.


By Sunday we should be solidly rooted in the warm sector with the
main cold front progged to move east through the Ohio Valley some
time Sun night or early Mon morning (timing differences still exist
in long range models).  1000-2000 j/kg and a strong wind profile
could result in the potential for strong to severe storms with
strong to damaging winds and hail along and ahead of the front.
Sunday high temps should be similar to Fri/Sat.

Monday - Tuesday...

Showers will quickly exit the area Monday with cooler, dry weather
expected through Tue.  High temps will fall back into the 60s/lower
70s for the beginning of work week with lows in the 40s/low 50s.


.Aviation (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 143 PM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017

We`ll be VFR for the remainder of today and much of the overnight as
we sit in the warm sector between a warm front to our north and a
cold front poised to move into the region Thursday morning. Main
concern for this afternoon will be gusty south winds between 20 and
25 mph. As we move past sunset, a 40-50 knot low level jet at and
just below 2 k feet will overspread the region. Seeing just enough
speed shear along with an inversion to warrant a narrow window for
LLWS mention mainly between 03-09z at the TAF sites. As we near the
daylight hours, winds will become more mixy/gusty and the LLJ core
will move off, ending the threat. Showers and a few embedded
thunderstorms arrive for the hours around dawn. In addition,
ceilings down into the MVFR range and even below fuel-alternate are

As we get into the mid to late morning time frame, SDF/BWG should
become dry with gradually improving ceilings and veering winds as
the cold front passes. Will keep MVFR ceilings and shower mention at
LEX through the end of the cycle.




Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........AMS
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