Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 242015

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
315 PM EST TUE NOV 24 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 245 PM EST Tue Nov 24 2015

The warming trend will continue in the short term period especially
as we enter a better return flow tomorrow.  Expect partly cloudy
skies tonight with low temps in the low to mid 30s.  Tomorrow will
by a mostly sunny day with temps warming into the upper 50s/lower
60s.  Southerly winds may be a bit breezy tomorrow afternoon with
gusts to around 20-25 mph possible.  Wed night cloud cover will
increase ahead of an approaching weather system.  This should limit
low temps to the 40s in most locations, but parts of east central KY
may still dip into the upper 30s if clouds don`t make it that far
east overnight.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 310 PM EST Tue Nov 24 2015


Thanksgiving looks quite pleasant for the Ohio Valley.  Although
clouds will be on the increase throughout the day, conditions will
remain dry with temps warming into the low to mid 60s!  Southerly
winds may be a little breezy as well.   Thanksgiving night will
remain mainly dry with low temps holding in the upper 40s to lower

Friday - Tuesday...

The pattern takes a wet turn for Friday and through early next week
with several rounds of rain expected.  A slow moving cold front will
approach the Ohio Valley early Friday morning bringing the first
round of rainfall on Friday.  West of I-65 will have the best shot
at steady rains throughout the day on Fri with areas east of I-65
seeing the rain mainly during the afternoon/evening hours.   All
locations should see steady rains by Friday night with light to at
times moderate rainfall intensity.

Although previous models have wavered on rainfall coverage and
amounts for Sat, the 12Z GFS and ECMWF and their ensembles indicate
Sat will be wet as the front stalls somewhere near the Ohio River.
Thus did increase POPs into the 60-70% range for Sat/Sat night.

More rounds of rain look to continue Sun as low pressure moves up
the front.  Sunday night may be on the drier side as the front lifts
north of the area.

One last good push of moisture looks to occur either Mon or Tues
(still model disagreement on the timing of the last push of
moisture) as the upper low over the western U.S. finally ejects
eastward across the Plains and then into the Great Lakes/southern
Canada by Tues night. The strong upper low will push the lingering
sfc front out of the area by Tues night and usher in drier, colder

Temperatures Fri-Tues will be tricky and dependent on the exact sfc
front location.  Generally trended warmer with this forecast package
overall based on a much better sfc front location consensus, but
there will no doubt be tighter gradients and potentially
warmer/colder temps on either side of the front.  Fri should still
be the warmest day just ahead of the front with highs in the upper
50s/lower 60s. Temps Sat-Tues will generally be in the 50s for highs
and 40s for lows.


.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1207 PM EST Tue Nov 24 2015

VFR conditions will continue through the forecast. A high pressure
system to the east will keep conditions pleasant as it pushes out of
the area. Wed might see some southerly gusts around 15 knots,
otherwise, nice conditions with few mid/high clouds passing over.


.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........AMS
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