156
FXUS65 KABQ 031749
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1046 AM MST Mon Nov 3 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1043 AM MST Mon Nov 3 2025

- Remaining dry with highs generally around 5 to 15 degrees above
  average this week.

- Breezy conditions across the central highlands Tuesday and eastern
  highlands and east central plains Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 1043 AM MST Mon Nov 3 2025

Pleasant weather remains over the Land of Enchantment today as a
594dm high spins near the Big Bend of TX. Scattered high clouds are
making their way into the western part of the state through the rest
of today as a weak shortwave, evident on water vapor imagery, pushes
across UT. The backdoor cold front that pushed through this morning
in eastern NM has begun to slow its progression and the winds behind
it have begun to taper off slightly. These winds will gradually
decrease throughout the afternoon as upper level westerlies and
surface southerlies work to counteract the motion of the front.
Above average high temperatures are very likely to continue today
except for those areas affected by the front. Temperatures are
likely to be a few degrees warmer overnight mainly in some valley
areas given modest (~10-20kt) 700mb winds pushing through overnight,
limiting peak radiational cooling. Stronger 700mb winds up to 30-
40kts are possible along the peaks of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains
throughout the night tonight, further limiting that radiational
cooling in mountain valleys.

Through tomorrow, the upper level flow shifts more westerly as the
aforementioned high pressure shifts further east. This allows a
favorable orientation for lee cyclogenesis along the Front Range of
the Rockies, with a low expected to form across northeast
NM/southeast CO. The formation of this low brings a stronger
pressure gradient along the I-40 corridor Tuesday afternoon, where
west winds of 15-25mph are very likely, especially near the Clines
Corners area. Otherwise, tranquil weather remains around the state
as temperatures remain above average. With the westerly downsloping
surface winds, eastern NM is likely to see temperatures in the mid
80s, with high 70s in the Rio Grande Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1043 AM MST Mon Nov 3 2025

Generally, tranquil and pleasant weather dominates the long term
period. The westerlies remain in place throughout the middle of the
week and troughs across northern CONUS work to send backdoor cold
fronts into northeast NM Wednesday, Friday, and Sunday. Westerlies
pick up a touch on Thursday as they cross much of central and
northern NM. In return, a very similar pattern to Tuesday unfolds
where a surface low forms in northeast NM, tightening the surface
gradient and increasing winds in the area. Along with the passage of
a Pacific front, wind gusts up to 40mph have a chance (~40-50%) of
occurring in and around the Central Highlands Thursday afternoon.
Downsloping west winds will also bump up temperatures a few degrees
across eastern NM and the Rio Grande Valley. Northwest upper level
flow is most likely over the weekend, continuing our dry and breezy
stretch. The aforementioned Sunday cold front appears to be the
strongest of the 3, with a sharp temperature drop appearing
favorable across eastern NM.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1043 AM MST Mon Nov 3 2025

VFR conditions are highly likely to prevail throughout the TAF
period. High cirrus clouds are moving in from the west and are
likely to move throughout NM into the afternoon and evening hours,
creating SCT and BKN around FL250 at most terminals. A cold front
that moved through northeast NM this morning is mixing out and winds
will begin to turn more southerly across the area as the afternoon
progresses. Breezy south winds are likely along and just east of the
central mountain chain through the afternoon. Winds begin to
increase across the peaks of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains
around 06z, may lead to localized LLWS near mountain terminals.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1043 AM MST Mon Nov 3 2025

Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are likely to
develop across east central NM Tuesday and Thursday afternoons as
westerly surface winds increase to 15-25mph with a chance of
isolated wind gusts up to 40mph. Humidity values drop into the low
teens across those areas in the afternoon, coinciding with the
higher wind speeds. Even with the supportive weather conditions,
fuels are not receptive across NM still, with ERCs remaining at or
below the 50th percentile. Thus, rapid fire spread is unlikely. Dry
weather is highly likely to remain throughout the next week.
Ventilation rates remain fair to good across much of the area
through the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  38  69  36  69 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  28  68  27  68 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  37  68  34  68 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  33  68  28  67 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  38  66  34  66 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  35  72  27  71 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  38  70  33  69 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  46  73  41  70 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  39  70  35  68 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  36  76  33  75 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  38  81  38  79 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  33  62  30  64 /   0   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  43  68  41  67 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  42  67  41  69 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  40  65  36  67 /   0   0   0   0
Red River.......................  36  57  31  60 /   0   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  29  63  18  64 /   0   0   0   0
Taos............................  33  69  28  69 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  41  69  37  68 /   0   0   0   0
Espanola........................  38  74  34  73 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  44  68  43  68 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  40  71  37  70 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  50  74  46  71 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  44  76  42  72 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  43  79  39  75 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  45  76  41  73 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  39  78  33  74 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  43  77  40  75 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  39  78  33  74 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  43  77  40  75 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  40  78  34  74 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  47  72  43  70 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  44  76  41  74 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  46  80  42  77 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  44  68  41  67 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  45  69  41  67 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  40  70  36  70 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  35  72  31  72 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  41  67  38  67 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  43  70  38  70 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  42  71  39  71 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  46  75  46  74 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  47  70  46  69 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  41  71  41  66 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  38  73  36  71 /   0   0   0   0
Springer........................  37  76  33  72 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  41  71  38  69 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  46  80  46  69 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  40  76  39  71 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  41  83  38  76 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  41  78  42  75 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  42  83  40  75 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  44  83  46  79 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  43  84  46  80 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  40  83  44  79 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  42  84  44  82 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  46  82  47  81 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  45  80  45  79 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM....77
AVIATION...77