Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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543 FXUS65 KABQ 271900 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1200 PM MST Thu Nov 27 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1039 AM MST Thu Nov 27 2025 - A backdoor cold front on Saturday will drop low temperatures into the teens and 20s overnight. - Some slick and icy roads from snow are forecast across the northern and west central high terrain Sunday night into Monday morning. - Colder early next week with high temperatures slightly below average across western and central New Mexico and well below average across eastern New Mexico. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Friday) Issued at 1039 AM MST Thu Nov 27 2025 A dirty upper level ridge is moving east into NM, bringing light and variable winds and increasing high cloudiness. The ridge will break-down tonight and give way to increasing westerlies and a deepening lee side trough on Friday as an upper level trough progresses southeast from the Pacific NW toward the Rockies. This scenario will lead to increasing southerly winds in the lowest portion of the boundary layer across the eastern plains, bringing Gulf moisture advection. The result will be areas of low stratus developing early Friday morning across the east central and southeast plains, with potential for fog near the TX border. Friday will be breezy across eastern NM due in part to the deepening lee side trough. Temperatures on Friday will be 5-10 degrees above average areawide. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1039 AM MST Thu Nov 27 2025 A stronger backdoor cold front will slide south down the eastern plains on Saturday, bringing locally windy conditions and notably colder temperatures. The backdoor front will surge west through the central mountain chain Saturday night and result in a gusty east canyon/gap wind into the Rio Grande and Upper Tularosa Valleys. Speeds are forecast to remain well below advisory threshold (35mph) at this time, but could trend up. Low temperatures will be in the teens and low 20s across much of northeast and east central NM behind the front Saturday night. Notably colder temperatures are forecast Sunday, especially across eastern NM where highs are forecast to be 10-20 degrees below average. An upper level trough is still forecast to race southeast from the Great Basin toward the southern Rockies and northern NM on Sunday, then move over the region Sunday night through Monday morning. The 12Z medium range model solutions are similar with the timing of the trough and all forecast an open wave vs a closed low. This will be a quick-hitter, bringing a round of snow to the northern mountains and surrounding high terrain thanks to both large scale ascent associated with the positively tilted trough and westerly upslope forcing. Forecast snow amounts would justify an advisory for the Tusas Mountains and possibly the Sangre De Cristos. At this time, there is a moderate chance (40-60%) of Winter Weather Advisory issuance for Sunday night into Monday. Cold conditions will follow the departing trough on Monday, but temperatures will moderate some on Tuesday as the flow aloft backs to the west and pressure heights trend up. The forecast for the middle of next week is messy given considerable model spread, but a backdoor cold front and a developing upper low to our west are in the cards. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1039 AM MST Thu Nov 27 2025 VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist at TAF sites, but IFR conditions in low status/fog are likely across the east central and southeast plains overnight near the TX border. Impacts are possible at both KTCC and KROW, but probabilities are too low to include with this TAF cycle. Otherwise, winds will mostly be light. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1039 AM MST Thu Nov 27 2025 Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast through at least the next seven days. A strong backdoor cold front will move southwest through the area Saturday into Saturday night, bringing breezy to locally windy and colder conditions to central and eastern NM. An upper level trough is forecast to swing east across the southern Rockies and northern NM Sunday night through Monday, bringing stronger winds, colder conditions, increased humidity and chances for wetting precipitation that will favor the northern mountains and areas near the CO border. Vent rates will take a dip and be mostly poor early next week with a colder airmass in place. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 30 56 28 51 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 20 55 18 50 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 27 55 25 50 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 25 56 22 53 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 31 54 27 52 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 25 60 25 56 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 30 58 28 55 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 35 61 35 57 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 31 58 30 55 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 28 65 25 63 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 32 69 29 67 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 23 49 19 45 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 33 53 32 49 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 31 53 31 52 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 30 51 26 47 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 25 43 21 39 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 18 49 19 44 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 23 53 23 50 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 29 56 29 52 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 27 58 26 56 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 34 53 32 51 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 31 55 27 52 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 39 58 37 56 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 33 60 32 58 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 32 63 30 60 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 35 60 32 58 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 27 63 27 60 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 33 61 32 59 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 27 62 25 60 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 33 61 31 60 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 29 62 27 60 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 36 56 35 54 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 34 60 32 59 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 34 66 34 64 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 33 53 32 51 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 33 55 33 52 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 29 56 32 54 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 23 59 30 55 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 31 55 30 50 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 33 58 32 55 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 32 58 32 56 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 37 61 35 60 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 37 57 37 57 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 27 56 24 39 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 25 59 25 46 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 24 61 24 49 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 30 59 30 51 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 33 61 34 41 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 28 61 30 48 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 33 67 32 55 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 31 64 37 57 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 35 64 36 53 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 36 61 40 56 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 36 64 40 60 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 33 62 37 61 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 36 66 36 68 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 34 68 38 67 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 33 68 35 68 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...11