186
FXUS63 KABR 161124 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
524 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures continue through Monday, with highs in
the mid 40s to mid 50s.

- There is a 40 to 65% chance of precipitation Monday afternoon into
Tuesday morning. While precipitation will be mainly in the form of
rain through Monday evening, colder air moving in late Monday night
into Tuesday morning will result in a wintry mix of mainly rain and
snow.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 516 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

Updated discussion for the 12Z TAFs below.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 308 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

As of 230am, satellite indicates broken to overcast clouds extending
from northwestern ND and southeastward through southeastern SD
(downwind side of the ridge), with the clouds mainly along and east
of the Missouri River in our CWA. Current soundings show this ~850-
700mb increased moisture layer with dry air below it through the
morning. With radar currently showing light returns here and there
within this cloud deck, east of the Mo river, kept the sprinkle
mention through 11Z, matching with the HRRR is showing. If sprinkles
continue past this time, it may need to be added to the grids.
Temperatures range from the mid to upper 30s and dewpoints in the
20s to the lower 30s with overall light winds.

Northwest flow aloft will turn more zonal by this evening as the
upper level ridge moves in overhead with the negative tilted upper
level shortwave`s axis positioned from Nevada and southeastward
through the Southwest region of the U.S. At the surface, high
pressure will continue overhead, with the center of the elongated
high over the eastern Dakotas/western MN. Through the day and into
tonight, this high will continue to shift towards the east as
pressure gradients increase this evening with the exiting high and
large area of low pressure extending from the western Canadian
territories though the lee side of the central Rockies. Besides the
morning sprinkles, overall dry weather is expected today and into
tonight.

Our attention then turns to Monday with our incoming system. By 12Z
both ENS/GEFS and HREF grand ensemble all agree on the negative
tilted shortwave extending from WY through southeastern CO with the
mid level low (ENS a bit quicker than GEFS/HREF) forming and over
WY/NE/SD area by 18Z. The mid level low will track eastward and over
SD/NE border by 00Z Tuesday. At the surface the elongated trough of
low pressure will be to our west, through southwestern SD and into
western NE/KS. The Co low will then track eastward and over southern
SD/NE and southward into KS by 00Z Tuesday. ENS is still a bit
further north with this low than GEFS. Precipitation, in the form of
rain, will start over south central SD Monday midday/afternoon and
spread north and northeastward over the CWA as the low tracks east
with pops increasing after 00Z Tuesday (Info on this will be
discussion in the long term). ENS is still quicker on the arrival of
rain vs GEFS at this time. This looks to be more banded in nature as
HREF ensemble and RAP indicates WAA/frontogenesis (and some MuCAPE!)
aloft, tracking north and northeast over the CWA and over the
eastern SD into MN Monday evening. CAMS struggle with exact timing
of onset of precip moving in over central SD, but looks to be
shortly before or around noon with several bands tracking north and
northeast over the CWA through Monday afternoon (and beyond). They
all seem to agree the bulk of the precip looks to increase over east
central through southeastern SD where stronger fgen will then lie by
late Monday afternoon/evening. Latest NBM pops seem to match up well
with the models with pops of 25-40% between noon-6pm, highest over
south central to east central SD. HREF QPF totals for this area 12Z
Monday-00Z Tuesday looks to remain light, with a few hundredths
possible. 75th percentile ranges from 0.02 to pockets of 0.10". If
we see better fgen forcing, 90th would be up to 0.15". The greatest
spread in 25-75th QPF of 0.10-0.15" lies just north of Pierre and
eastward through Watertown aka the greatest uncertainty with the
banding nature of precip. Again this has to do with the exact
position/timing in regards to the track of the low. Any shift north
or south will result in where the "heaviest" precip lies. We will
see an increase in QPF Monday evening into Tuesday. NBM
deterministic shows the highest QPF (0.10 to 0.20") south of a line
from Redfield to Watertown. 90th percentile (better forcing for
banding) would be ~0.10 from Gettysburg to Watertown and southward.
25-75th spread in QPF is 0.25 to 0.50" for this area, so much larger
range than HREF.

With the increasing pressure gradient between the exiting high and
incoming low, winds will be on the increase out of the southeast
this evening and continue through Monday, increasing a bit more by
Monday afternoon. Gusts of 15-20kts are possible over central SD
overnight, with gusts increasing to 20-30kts by Monday afternoon,
highest over the higher elevations of Leola hills, Lyman Bootheel,
and Coteau. High temps for today are forecast to range from the mid
40s to the mid 50s, warmest over central SD with lows in the upper
20s to upper 30s overnight. Highs in the mid 40s to the lower 50s
expected for Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 308 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

Monday evening starts the long term with an upper level low to our
south. This low will move east through Tuesday morning. We then move
into zonal/split flow as an area of low pressure moves farther
inland from California. Depending on where that low goes, we may
either remain in split flow or transition into northerly flow. If
the low stays a bit farther north, we may see some wrap around
precip, more details next. Past Friday, models don`t really have a
good handle on what will happen.

Rain showers are expected to be occurring when the period opens
Monday evening, with some snow possibly mixed in over the Sisseton
Hills. Snow accumulation is unlikely but if some does accumulate, it
would be a couple hundredths of an inch at most. The next chance for
some precip would be with that low from California Wednesday
nigh/Thursday morning. Current forecast has a 60% or greater chance
for temperatures less than 32 degrees F along the ND/SD border. Some
model soundings show a layer warmer than freezing above the surface
in this area. Given the differences, confidence is low at this time
whether the precipitation will remain rain or if it will become snow
at some point during the overnight hours. This is also contingent on
the placement of the low.

Temperatures through the period are looking to be about 10 above
average, with several rounds of WAA leading up to Thursday.
Confidence is low past that as models are not in good agreement.
Winds look to be more on the light side through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 516 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Satellite indicates lower broken to overcast clouds over north
central through northeastern SD, but still remain at VFR cigs as
of now. VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period with
overall light winds today. Winds will increase a bit this evening
through Monday morning, out of the east/southeast, with gusts up
to 20kts at KPIR/KMBG.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MMM
SHORT TERM...MMM
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...MMM