035
FXUS63 KABR 041001
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
401 AM CST Tue Nov 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures (5-15 degrees) continue today and
  Thursday, with cooler/near normal high temperatures expected
  Wednesday. Near to below normal temperatures are upcoming for
  the weekend. Highs are expected to be in the 40s Friday and
  Saturday.

- Still low confidence in track/timing associated with a Clipper
  system for the weekend. Chances for moisture (30-50%) include
  both rain and snow potential. Additional forecast concerns
  include winds in excess of 45 mph on Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 351 AM CST Tue Nov 4 2025

At 3 AM CST, skies are mostly clear and temperatures are in the 30s
and 40s for the most part. Southeast winds around 5 to 15 mph
continue to develop early this morning in response to the tightening
return flow pressure gradient over the region (lower pressure out
across the northern high plains and higher pressure over
Minnesota/Iowa.

Today`s low pressure system of interest has moved inland off the
Pacific Ocean; currently working across the Pacific Northwest. The
surface low and upper low work across the northern plains generally
between 18Z today and 06Z tonight. Look for a surge of low level WAA
across, at least, the southwestern portion of the CWA (areas along
and south of U.S. Highway 212) today as the surface low shifts east
across the Dakotas. South-southeasterly winds are expected to
increase to 15 to 25 mph with some higher gusts possible today,
especially across northeast South Dakota and west central Minnesota.
Precipitation chances are expected to remain bottled up further
north across North Dakota into Minnesota this afternoon into this
evening, with partly to mostly sunny conditions anticipated over
this CWA.

This system`s cold front is progged to enter into the northwestern
CWA by early this afternoon, spreading southeast through late this
evening. Between the pressure rises and strength of low level CAA,
post-frontal tonight, northwest winds should increase behind the
frontal passage to 20 to 30 mph with some gusts up to 40 mph. 925hpa
thermal progs of ~+9C to ~+15C this afternoon cool down overnight
into Wednesday morning to ~+1C to ~+3C, and only rebound a few
degrees Celsius Wednesday afternoon with daytime heating. Winds
should be much lighter on Wednesday, with surface high pressure
progged to center itself over the CWA by Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 351 AM CST Tue Nov 4 2025

Relatively zonal flow aloft is expected for the next couple of days,
but an upper-level shortwave ridge followed by a shortwave trough
will round out the work week this week. Temperatures Thursday remain
about 10-15 degrees above normal (into the 50s to low 60s) thanks to
the weak ridge. A low pressure center developed by the shortwave
trough is set to drag a cold front over the Northern Plains late
Thursday. There is a slight possibility of some wrap-around rain
showers Thursday night, but no significant accumulations are
expected should any such showers materialize. Behind the cold front,
temperatures will decrease to near normal to just below normal
(highs in the 40s). Wind gusts up to 35 miles per hour Thursday are
expected over northeastern South Dakota in the morning and then
central South Dakota in the afternoon, but otherwise nothing notable
until we hit the weekend.

The main focus in the extended period is the chances for
precipitation this weekend. A deepening upper-level ridge over the
western CONUS will place the Aberdeen CWA in the transition area
between the ridge and a broad trough to the east. A shortwave riding
down the front side of the ridge is expected to move overhead and
support a low pressure center over the Northern Plains for the
weekend. Timing will be key with this system in determining
precipitation type. Currently the heaviest precipitation is expected
during the morning hours, which may be conducive to any of rain,
snowfall, or a wintry mix. There is still quite a bit of uncertainty
with the temperatures, but the latest NBM guidance gives a high
probability (>90%) of minimum temperatures Saturday morning reaching
below freezing, so at least some snow is expected. Based on the
model soundings, would expect snow ratios in the neighborhood of 8-
10:1 until a potential warmup and transition to rain occurs. With
this in mind, the expectation is that not all of the QPF will fall
as snow. Probability of 0.1" of QPF as well as probability of 0.5"
of snowfall both sit between only 20-40% over northeastern South
Dakota. There is still quite a decent 25th-75th spread as well, of
about 0-0.15" of QPF and 0-1" of snowfall. Anything greater than 1"
appears unlikely at the moment, but we will continue to keep an eye
on trends as the system draws nearer.

Northwesterly winds are expected to be strong Saturday afternoon
as well, currently forecasted to reach 35 to 45 miles per hour
over central and north central South Dakota at their peak. NBM
guidance suggests that a Wind Advisory may be necessary, with a
probability of exceeding criteria (gusts of 45 miles per hour) of
50-70% Saturday afternoon. The weekend setup will also be
conducive to strong cold air advection behind the low and cold
frontal passage. Overnight lows in particular over the weekend
will drop into the teens (about 10 degrees below normal), and
highs on Sunday may struggle to reach above freezing.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1135 PM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period. Still seeing
low-level wind shear conditions possible at KPIR overnight and
even in the KABR region during the wee hours of Tuesday morning.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...TMT