903
FXUS61 KAKQ 102047
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
347 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front crosses into the area tonight, with cooler
temperatures for Thursday and Friday. Uncertainty still remains
regarding the potential for additional light wintry
precipitation, associated with multiple clipper systems late
this week and again at the end of the weekend. A very cold start
to next week will give way to relatively milder temperatures
for the middle to end of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
As of 315 PM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Clouds increase ahead of the cold front this afternoon/evening.

- Cooler and dry weather conditions for tomorrow.

Afternoon weather analysis shows strong troughing persisting over
the area with SW flow aloft. At the surface, a sub 990mb low
tracking across the Great Lakes and western NY. The cold front
associated with this low is currently draped across Ohio. The
pressure gradient ahead of the cold front has tightened through the
day and winds have increased out of the SW with 25 to 30mph gusts.
With the strong SW flow it has allowed for temperatures to warm up
across the south where there has been some breaks within the clouds.
While across the piedmont temperatures have struggled to warm due to
the increased cloud cover and remaining snow. Nonetheless,
temperatures are ranging between the low to mid 40s across the
piedmont and upper 40s to low 50s across the SE. Later this
afternoon and evening as the front approaches cloud cover will
increase. There is also a slight chance of showers across the far
north given the strong forcing. However, confidence is low at the
time given decent dry air at the surface. As the cold front pushes
through the area this evening winds will shift out of the WNW but
will lower. Late tonight/early Thursday morning clouds will
decrease allowing temperatures to drop into the upper 20s to low
30s. By Thursday the cold front will have finally pushed through the
area and high pressure from the west will be moving into place over
the area. Before the high moves into place breezy conditions will
persist through the early part of the day with gusts between 20 to
25 mph across the area with some possible 30 mph gusts across the MD
Eastern Shore where the pressure gradient is stronger. Skies will
remain mostly clear to clear as the dry weather persist from the
high pressure. Temperatures will be cooler with highs only reaching
into the low to middle 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 PM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- A weak clipper system is possible Friday.

- Dry and Slightly Warmer Saturday.

There continues to remain some uncertainty with the possible clipper
system on Friday. Models continue to show a weak shortwave and low
pressure system moving out of the northern Plains into our area
producing light snow across the far west. Models continue to show
disagreement with this incoming system. Some of the deterministic
short range models and the GEFS show the snow showers across the far
NW. While the ECMWF continues to hint on a southerly trend. With
this uncertainty decided to nudge pops up slightly across the south
but still remains between 20 to 35%. Now in terms in how much snow
could fall still remains uncertain. This is again due to the
disagreement from the models and depends on where a weak FGEN band
sets up. The Ecmwf probs for 1" of snow continue to lower and are now
between 20 to 30% while the GEFS has increased and are between 40 to
50%. At this time, have decided to keep snow totals confined and
less than .5" inch across the far NW. Trends in the model data will
continue to be monitored.

After the clipper system Friday strong NW flow aloft will persist
over the area with a high pressure moving in place at the surface.
Dry weather conditions will remain in place with slightly warmer
temperatures. Highs will be in the mid 40s across the north and low
50s across the south. Saturday night lows will be in the upper 20s
to low 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 315 PM EST Wednesday...

- Another Arctic cold front crosses into the region on Sunday,
ushering in a much colder airmass Sunday night and Monday.,  Lows in
the mid teens to mid 20s Sunday night and mid to upper  30s are
forecast for Monday. Some light precipitation is  possible with the
Arctic frontal passage.

- Temperatures quickly moderate from Tuesday through the middle  of
next week.

Recent 12z models are continuing to bring a strong cold front across
the area as a arctic high pressure moves out of Canada late Sunday.
Models have continued to increase on precipitation chances with the
cold front that could lead some wintry precipitation especially
across the NE portion of the CWA. However, there still remains little
uncertainty due to timing. With the models increasing with
precipitations pops have also increased and are between 25 to 40%.
By Sunday night a strong high pressure will move into place ushering
in Arctic temperatures. Lows Monday AM are expected to plummet into
middle to upper teens and low 20s along the coast, with chilly highs
Monday in the 30s. However, there is improving consensus that cold
high pressure quickly slides offshore Tue-Wed, portending a gradual
warmup for much of the mid to late week period next week.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1205 PM EST Wednesday...

VFR conditions across area terminals early this afternoon.
Mainly mid to high clouds continue to move over the terminals
ahead of an approaching cold front. SW winds have became quite
breezy ahead of the front, with wind speeds around 15 kt with
gusts 20-25 kt (locally 30 kt along the coast). Additionally, a
strengthening low-level jet will result in southwesterly LLWS
this afternoon and evening across all terminals. There is also
a very low chance of an isolated shower just north of KRIC and
around the KSBY terminal as the front moves through late this
afternoon into the evening, but PoPs are <20%. VFR conditions
will prevail throughout tonight with gusty winds shifting out
of the WNW behind the front tonight.


Outlook: Gusty NW winds and VFR conditions are expected post-
frontal Thursday. An approaching disturbance could trigger some
light rain or snow Friday into Friday night (best chance for
snow across the far N), with intermittent flight restrictions
possible. Another cold front could bring light precip on
Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 345 PM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Gale Warnings remain in effect for the coastal waters N of
  Cape Charles this afternoon and evening, with SCAs are in
  effect for the remainder of the marine area as a cold front
  crosses the coast.

- Another strong cold front is expected to cross the coast
  later Sunday.

990mb low pressure is centered over Lake Ontario with a cold
front trailing back through the Appalachians. The wind is SW
15-25kt with gusts up to 30kt, and 25-30kt with gusts to 35-40kt
N for the coastal waters N of Cape Charles. Seas range from
4-5ft S to 5-8ft N with 3-4ft waves in the Ches. Bay. A SW wind
should remain at similar speeds for the next few hours in
advance of the cold front, which crosses the coast later this
evening. The wind should become W and diminish as the cold front
moves through, and then becomes NW later tonight into early
Thursday as CAA increases, but wind speeds should remain sub-
gale. Gale Warnings remain in effect through 10PM with SCAs in
effect elsewhere. SCAs run through 7PM for the upper rivers, the
Currituck Sound through 4 AM Thu, the lower James through 7AM
Thu, the southern coastal waters through 10AM Thu, the lower Bay
through 1PM Thu, and the middle Bay through 4PM Thu.

High pressure briefly returns Thursday aftn into Thursday
night. A weakening low pressure system and cold front cross the
region Friday night. High pressure then settles over the
Southeast Saturday. Sub- SCA conditions are expected to prevail
Thursday aftn through at least Saturday. A strong cold front
crosses the coast later Sunday into Sunday night with high
pressure returning Monday. At least SCA conditions are expected
based on the 10/12z guidance, with quite high probabilities for
gale conditions over the coastal waters, and lesser, but still
notable gale gust probs for the Ches. Bay.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Thursday for ANZ630-631.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Thursday for ANZ632-634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for
     ANZ635>637.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for ANZ638.
     Gale Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ650-652-654.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for ANZ656-658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HET/MAM
NEAR TERM...HET
SHORT TERM...HET/MAM
LONG TERM...HET/MAM
AVIATION...HET/MAM
MARINE...AJZ