483
FXUS61 KAKQ 021048
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
648 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in from mid to late week with cooler and
drier weather returning. A warm-up is expected heading into the
weekend, with dry conditions continuing through next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 300 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Message:

- Below average temperatures and pleasant conditions today.

- Gust winds expected near the coast today, followed by a decrease
  in winds overnight.

Hurricane Imelda continues to moves further away from the U.S.
this morning, and the gradient between the expansive high
centered across eastern Canada has started to relax. Wind gusts
along the coast still range from 20 to 25 mph, while inland
areas have decoupled and are observing light and variable winds.
The combination of light winds and clear skies have allowed for
inland areas to radiate, bringing temperatures into the upper
40s to lower 50s. Along the coast, temperatures remain in the
lower to mid 60s. The high will slide southeastwards today and
move across the Northeast. Imelda will track further into the
North Atlantic, resulting in a continued decrease in winds.
Gusts of 20 to 25 mph will linger along the coast through the
early evening, but a sharp decrease in winds is expected by
tonight. As we saw yesterday, another scattered low-level cloud
deck will likely develop across the forecast area. With the
cooler, drier airmass expected to remain in place today, no rain
is in the forecast and temperatures are expected to remain
slightly below normal with highs reach the upper 60s to lower
70s. Skies will start to clear this evening, so another round of
radiational cooling is likely in inland areas tonight. Lows are
forecast to drop into the mid-upper 40s inland, while areas
near the coast will see temperatures in the mid 50s to around
60F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Warming temperatures expected this weekend, with rain-free
  conditions continuing.

Cooler temperatures will continue through Friday as the high
continues to pump in a modified continental airmass across the
region. Highs will be in the lower to mid 70s on Friday. The high to
our north will slowly slide southwards Friday and reach the Mid-
Atlantic coast by the afternoon. Light winds are expected at this
time as the gradient will have weakened considerably with the high
overhead. High pressure will remain dominant through the weekend,
but temperatures will start to moderate on Saturday as an amplified
mid-upper level ridge slides over the East Coast. Temperatures will
reach the mid to upper 70s on Saturday, increasing further into the
upper 70s on Sunday. Overnight temperatures Saturday will drop to 50-
55F inland and 55-60F along the coast. By Sunday, overnight
temperatures will have moderate into the mid to upper 50s inland to
lower to mid 60s near the coast. Although the air mass will become
modified, dry conditions are anticipated as high pressure remains in
place across the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 300 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Continued warmer temperatures to start the week, with a chance for
  rain coming late Tuesday as a possible front moves through the
  area.

The synoptic pattern on Monday will remain the similar to the
weekend with ridging aloft and high pressure dominating at the
surface, but an upper-level trough will be approaching the region
from the Great Lakes area. This will shove the high off the Mid-
Atlantic coast, which will result in winds shifting to a more
southerly direction. Temperatures on Monday and Tuesday will be
above normal for this time of year, likely reaching near 80F into
the lower 80s. The next best shot at rain will be late Tuesday
through Wednesday as a surface front associated with the
aforementioned upper trough possibly moves across the region,
otherwise, dry conditions will prevail.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 648 AM EDT Thursday...

VFR conditions prevail at all terminals this morning. Mostly
clear skies will continue, with potentially a SCT cloud deck
moving across ECG/PHF/ORF over the next few hours. Later this
morning, SCT CIGs will likely expand to the remainder of the
terminals, with intermittent MVFR CIGs possible. Confidence is
very low in any lowered MVFR CIGs, so have left them out of the
TAFs for now. Winds will gradually decrease today, with gusts
up to 15-25 kts (mainly at the coastal terminals) through the
afternoon before gusts drop off in the evening.

Primarily VFR conditions are anticipated through Friday with the
potential for some fog Friday night into Sat morning across a
portion of the area (best chance across the Piedmont).

&&

.MARINE...
As of 250 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- SCAs in effect for all coastal waters due to elevated NE
  winds and seas of 5-10ft.

- SCAs for the lower Ches Bay, lower James River, and the
  Currituck Sound look to come down late today into tonight.

- Gradually improving conditions through the early weekend, then
  pleasant conditions expected into early next week.

Latest weather analysis reveals 1032+mb sfc high pressure
building south of QC/New England into the Mid-Atlantic and the
Carolinas early this morning. Tropical Cyclone Imelda was
visible on early morning IR/WV satellite near Bermuda, and will
move NE away from the island through today. Locally E-NE winds
remain elevated, but have diminished a bit over the past few
hours, as the gradient slowly slackens between the departing
Imelda and high pressure building over the waters. Seas remain
elevated in the 8-12 ft range, comprised of mainly E 10-12
second swell. Waves are 1-2 ft on the upper bay, rivers and
sound, with 2-6 ft in the lower bay, highest at the mouth of the
bay. Small Craft Advisories have been discontinued north of New
Point Comfort, but continue for the lower Ches Bay, Atlantic
coastal waters, Currituck Sound, and the lower James River. The
coastal waters will remain in SCA into the upcoming weekend,
mainly for seas. The Currituck Sound, lower James River and
adjacent bay zone should drop below SCA thresholds by late
afternoon/early evening.

Remaining breezy this morning, with winds gradually diminishing
through the day, as the pressure gradient slowly slackens with
high pressure building into the region. NE winds 10-15 kt north,
15-20 kt southern waters, with gusts to 25-30 kt this morning
slowly diminishing this afternoon. That trend continues tonight
and Friday, as high pressure builds overhead. Winds should be
down to 10-15kt tonight, then 5-10kt by Friday evening. Seas
will be held up mainly due to the lingering swell from the
offshore tropical systems and onshore flow. Expecting seas
still in the 7-10ft range over the Atlantic coast tonight into
Friday, subsiding to 5-8ft by Friday morning. SCA should finally
come down Saturday afternoon and evening, from south to north.
More benign boating conditions expected by late in the weekend
into early next week with high pressure remains in place just
offshore.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 500 AM EDT Thursday...

Tidal anomalies have risen to 2-2.25 feet above astronomical
tides this morning, with widespread minor flooding. Have added a
Coastal Flood Warning for the Tidal Potomac River, as tidal
anomalies continue to slowly climb this morning. Even as winds
diminish, water levels are expected to be slightly lower due to
the astronomically lower tide cycle this morning, but in light
of a strong flood tide this morning that will keep anomalies
remaining steady, expect at least another 1-2 rounds of minor
coastal flooding impacts along the bay side of the MD Eastern
Shore, the remaining tidal rivers of eastern VA, and southside
Hampton Roads. Advisories have been extended until Thursday
night for most of these areas except Accomack/Northampton
Counties, which will see mainly nuisance/sub-minor threshold
type flooding. Mainly nuisance flooding is also expected on the
Atlantic coast with subsequent high tides, so not anticipating
the need for additional advisories here (although further
statements are possible). Will need to monitor the tidal
Potomac. Given the high anomalies, could potentially need
another round of Coastal Flood Warnings for the evening tide
cycle. At the very least, Advisory level water levels are
anticipated through the Fri morning tide cycle.

High Surf Advisories slowly drop off later today and tonight,
as seas slowly subside, but high rip risk persists into the
upcoming weekend.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for MDZ021>023.
     High Surf Advisory until noon EDT today for MDZ025.
NC...High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for NCZ102.
VA...High Surf Advisory until noon EDT today for VAZ099-100.
     High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for VAZ098.
     Coastal Flood Warning until noon EDT today for VAZ075-077.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for VAZ076-078-
     522.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for VAZ082-
     084>086-089-090-093-523.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for VAZ083-
     518-520.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     VAZ095>098-524-525.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ632-
     638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for ANZ634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ650-652-
     654.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ656-658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJZ/NB
NEAR TERM...NB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/NB
LONG TERM...NB
AVIATION...NB
MARINE...AC/MAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...