995
FXUS61 KAKQ 150822
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
322 AM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Even warmer today ahead of an approaching cold front that will
bring gusty winds on Sunday. Benign conditions expected on
Monday before a quick-moving weather system moves through later
Tuesday bringing rain chances and much cooler temperatures. High
pressure builds in mid-week, with another potential system to
look out for late in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 230 AM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

-  Warm front passing through the area this morning; a warm
   Saturday ahead.

Early morning satellite imagery shows a decent deck of mid-
level clouds persisting across the local area, especially east
of the I-95 corridor. A warm front is lifting through as well,
creating south/southwesterly winds of 8-12mph. With the clouds
and slightly elevated winds, low temperatures will be milder
tonight when compared to last night. Current temps are still in
the low to mid 50s, with upper 40s on the Eastern Shore and
across the northwest. Forecasting lows to bottom out in the low
to mid 40s for most of us. A few very light showers continue to
pop up across NE NC as well, with chances ending in the next
hour or two.

Today, surface high pressure will get pushed further to the
south/southeast as low pressure moves east across the Great Lakes
into western New England. Here locally, westerly/downsloping flow
will allow for high temperatures to soar into the lower 70s, upwards
of 10 degrees above normal for mid-November. The Eastern Shore will
top out in the low to mid 60s. A few breezes to 15mph will be
likely through the day. A cold front will begin to approach the
area late Saturday into early Sunday. Models continue to
indicate a slight chance of a few showers across the north and
Eastern Shore during the early morning hours of Sunday. QPF
looks to only be a few hundredths at best, so don`t get your
hopes up for any good rain just yet.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 AM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Much drier air moves in Sunday with gusty winds. Benign but
  cooler weather expected Monday.

The cold front will pass through the first part of Sunday, with
any showers coming to an end after sunrise. Low pressure is
expected to strengthen across northern New England through the
day resulting in the pressure gradient across the entire region
tightening quite substantially. This will lead to gusty
conditions on Sunday. Currently forecasting sustained winds of
15-25mph with gusts to 25-30mph. Portions of the Eastern Shore
may see wind gusts upwards of 35mph. Additionally, much drier
air will rush in behind the cold front, plummeting dewpoints into
the lower 20s by mid-day. This dry air (RHs of 25-29%) combined
with gusty winds may create some fire weather concerns for the
area since we haven`t received a good wetting rain recently.
Stay tuned for updates on this, though definitely plan to avoid
creating sparks or conducting any burning on Sunday out of
caution. High temperatures will be in the lower 70s south of
I-64, with mid 60s to the north. Cooler, more seasonable air
will also move in Sunday night, with low temperatures dropping
into the mid 30s, with lower 30s likely across the typical
cooler spots.

The pressure gradient will start to relax on Monday as high pressure
builds in, allowing winds to subside for the most part. The
Eastern Shore will be the exception with some 20-25mph gusts
remaining. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler as highs only
reach into the mid 50s, and around 50 degrees on the Eastern
Shore. Overnight lows will dip into the lower 30s/below freezing
inland and upper 30s to lower 40s along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 230 AM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Quick-moving system crosses the Mid-Atlantic later Tuesday.

- Another potential system to end the week.

Clouds will be on the increase as we wake up Tuesday morning due to
a weakening surface low pressure approaching from the west. Models
generally agree that rain chances increase from west to east late
Tuesday afternoon into the evening hours. We`re only talking a 30-
40% chance of rain for now, and this system will be very quick-
moving as it`ll be on its way out by sunrise Wednesday. Not
expecting a super beneficial rainfall from it, but due to being so
dry lately, any rainfall is welcome. Current model runs are trying
to indicate maybe a quarter to a third of an inch of rain
primarily across the north/northwest. High temperatures will
only be in the mid to upper 50s for the south and lower 50s for
the north. Overnight temps won`t be quite as frigid, dipping
into the lower 40s.

High pressure will work into the local area Wednesday into Thursday.
Another cool day on Wednesday with highs in the mid to upper 50s,
then warming into the lower 60s on Thursday. Clouds will increase
later Thursday into Friday as the flow become more southerly ahead
of an approaching low pressure system and its associated cold front.
This may bring us a chance of rain to end the week as models are in
decent agreement already.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1215 AM EST Saturday...

VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals through tomorrow,
with mid-level clouds expected overnight. A brief period of
west/southwesterly LLWS looks to develop through 10Z across all
terminals except SBY. Otherwise, surface winds will generally
be SW and increasing to 8-12 kt as a warm front lifts through
the area overnight. That will continue into the day on Saturday,
with mid to high level clouds moving in ahead of an approaching
cold front. This front will move through at the end of the TAF
period bringing a slight chance of showers to the north.
Stronger LLWS looks likely Saturday night into early Sunday
morning as winds begin to increase off of the surface. Expect
southwesterly LLWS of 35-45kt starting at the end of this TAF
period.

Outlook: Northwesterly winds will become gusty on Sunday behind
frontal passage, though skies will clear out. Expect dry weather and
less breezy conditions on Monday, except for some gusts persisting
at SBY. A chance of -RA and degraded flight conditions will return
on Tuesday as a quick-moving weather system passes through.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 AM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Sub-SCA conditions today.

- Increasing W-SW winds tonight, then strong W-NW winds Sunday
  into early Monday. Gale Watch remains in effect for the
  coastal waters N of Parramore Island, with SCAs now in effect
  all other zones.


A weak system aloft is brining elevated westerly winds early
this morning, but expect improving conditions and generally
lighter winds for most of the day today. Seas are 2-3 ft with
waves ~2 ft in the Bay, but for most of today, waves will drop
back to ~1 foot in the Bay, rivers, and sound.

A strong cold front will approach the area from the W by tonight,
crossing the waters Sunday afternoon. Elevated SW winds (15- 25
kt) develop tonight ahead of the front, veering to the W-NW
later Sunday aftn and evening behind the front. Small Craft
Advisories have been issued for all zones (including the
northern coastal zones where the Gale Watch goes into effect
Sunday aftn). Model guidance is fairly consistent with Friday`s
12Z runs. With the best CAA not really spreading over the waters
until Sunday evening, think this is the period with the
strongest winds, but left the Gale Watch as is starting Sun aftn
and later shifts can fine tune the timing of any potential Gale
Warnings. It still looks like wind gusts will primarily be sub-
Gale other than the northern coastal waters so decided to have
SCAs go through Monday morning for all other zones. There could
be a brief window for gusts to 35 kt in the Bay and coastal
waters down to the VA-NC border Sunday night, but probs are only
around 10% in the Bay and 20-30% for the offshore portion of
the coastal waters between Parramore and the VA-NC border so
expect this would be marginal and short-lived. The latest trends
suggest the winds begin to diminish after 12Z Monday, but with
some uptick in winds likely Monday night as the pattern depicts
sfc high pressure still W of the waters until The day Tuesday.
This could allow for additional CAA with SCAs to linger (or
redevelop) for the Bay Monday night. Much lighter winds are then
expected Tuesday as the high settles in from the W.

Seas average 2-3 ft through this evening, building to 3-6 ft
late tonight through Sunday/early Monday (the offshore wind
direction preventing them from building too high). Waves in the
Chesapeake Bay will average 1-2 ft today, then 2-4 ft late
tonight through Sunday night/Monday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Monday
     for ANZ630>632-634.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 AM EST
     Monday for ANZ633-635>637.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM EST
     Monday for ANZ638.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM EST
     Sunday for ANZ650-652.
     Gale Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon for
     ANZ650-652.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EST
     Monday for ANZ654-656-658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JKP
NEAR TERM...JKP
SHORT TERM...JKP
LONG TERM...JKP
AVIATION...JKP/NB
MARINE...LKB/SW