425
FXUS61 KALY 231923
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
223 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Snow showers from a clipper disturbance today continues this
afternoon with lake effect and upslope enhancements in the
western/southern Adirondacks and southern Greens leading to
light snow accumulations this afternoon into tonight. We trend
milder tomorrow through Wednesday with rain showers Tuesday
afternoon into Wednesday before a more potent cold front marches
through Wednesday evening. This will result in colder and
windier conditions for the Thanksgiving holiday into the
weekend along with increasing confidence for accumulating lake
effect and upslope snow Thursday into Friday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message:

- Light snow accumulations through tonight for the southern and
  western Adirondacks and southern Greens with amounts ranging
  from 2 to 4 inches for elevations 1500ft+.

Discussion:

Increased warm air and moisture advection ahead of a clipper
disturbance passing through to our north in Quebec has led to
scattered snow showers today across areas mainly from I-90
north. The 12 UTC ALY sounding today showed plenty of dry air in
the low and mid-level levels with surface dew points in the low
to mid 20s and air temperatures in the low to mid 30s. Thus, as
falling light precipitation has saturated the column, wet-bulb
cooling processes has supported light snow falling from these
showers. Areas mainly 1000ft+ have seen minor accumulations
from this snow showers with much lighter intensity in valley
areas and warmer ground surfaces limiting any accumulations.
Areas further south in the mid- Hudson Valley and Litchfield
County remain mainly south of the strongest forcing and
therefore have remained drier and milder with temperatures
reaching into the upper 30s to low 40s.

As the strongest warm air and moisture advection exits to our
east this afternoon, snow showers coverage will decrease with
temperatures even slowly warming into the upper 30s to low to
mid 40s as enter in a very weak warm sector (staying colder
around freezing in the southern Adirondacks and southern
Greens). As the shortwave trough and sfc cold front push through
by 21 to 00 UTC this evening, expecting winds to shift to the
west - northwest which will usher in cooler temperatures
tonight. Stronger west to northwest flow aloft and cold air
advection behind the shortwave extending over the Great Lakes
will help elicit a weak lake effect and upslope response for
tonight. High res guidance continues to be in agreement showing
bands developing off Lake Ontario that reach into the Mohawk
Valley, western Adirondacks and northern Catskills with upslope
developing in the northern Taconics, southern Greens and
northern Berkshires starting 00 - 03 UTC. Temperatures, however,
look to remain marginal in the Mohawk Valley still only in the
mid to upper 30s which should keep precipitation as mainly rain
or rain/snow showers during any steadier precipitation. The
southern/western Adirondacks, northern Taconics, southern
Greens, northern Berkshires and northern Catskills, on the other
hand, should be cool in the upper 20s to low 30s supporting
snow as the p-type. Therefore, these are the primary areas
favored to see light snow accumulations tonight ranging from a
few tenths up to 2 inches with 2 to 4 inches for areas 1500+ in
elevation.

Lake effect and upslope snow diminishes by 12 UTC Monday as
ridging from the Great Lakes builds eastward increasing
subsidence overhead. West-northwest flow continuing will
maintain cloud coverage in the typical high terrain and hill
town areas through the morning. While valley areas should see
more breaks of sun, westerly flow funneling down the Mohawk
Valley into the Capital District should keep skies a little
cloudier as forecast soundings show moisture trapped beneath
subsidence inversion. However, clouds should give way to more
sun Monday afternoon as ridging continue to take control.
Warmer air spilling overtop the incoming ridge should also help
moderate temperatures tomorrow with highs rising into the mid to
upper 40s in valley areas with upper 30s in the higher terrain.
We stay dry into Monday night due high pressure in place but
moisture spilling overtop the ridging will cloud skies up again
preventing temperatures from becoming too chilly.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Messages:

- Medium to high confidence for a period of milder temperatures
  Tuesday into especially Wednesday across eastern NY and
  western New England with a 75 - 90% chance for high
  temperatures on Tuesday to reach at least 45 degrees and at
  least 50 degrees on Wednesday.

- Increasing confidence for gusty winds Thursday into Friday
  across the region and accumulating lake effect snow for the
  Mohawk Valley and western/southern Adirondacks. There is a 40
  to 70% chance for at least 4 inches of snow between 7AM Thurs
  and 7AM Sat in these areas with 40 to 50% chance for at least
  7 inches in northern Herkimer County.

Discussion:

Our period of milder weather ensues Tuesday into especially Wednesday
with increasing confidence for near to above normal
temperatures. Broad ridging and southwest aloft continues into
Tuesday, ushering in a milder air mass with weak warm air
advection also keeping skies cloudy. A weak shortwave embedded
within the broad southwest flow will track northeastward Tuesday
afternoon into Tuesday night, leading a period of showers. The
leading edge of the strongest warm air and moisture advection
continues to look delayed until 18 - 21 UTC Tues so we likely
remain dry through early afternoon. Then, chances for showers
increase from southwest to northeast mid to late afternoon
before widespread likely and categorical POPs overspread the
region by 00 - 06 UTC Wed. Luckily, temperatures remain mild
enough across the area for precipitation type to remain as all
rain. Rain showers decrease in coverage after Midnight but
continued weak southwest flow will keep at least scattered
showers in place overnight before we trend drier during the day
on Wednesday. With ensemble clustering guidance in good
agreement with a deepening shortwave trough over the
Midwest/Upper Plains developing into a closed low over the Great
Lakes by Wednesday, there is now medium to high confidence that
Wednesday will be the warmest day of the week as southwest flow
and downstream ridging intensify, sending a very mild air mass
into the Northeast. In fact, there is a 90% chance for nearly
all areas to experiences highs in the 50s with even a 50 to 70%
chance for highs to exceed 55 degrees in valley areas.

However, the warm weather does not last for long as the cut-off
low and occluded surface disturbance in the Great Lakes tracks
eastward by Wednesday evening with its cold front marching into
the Northeast. Expect a period of rain ahead of the boundary
before winds shift to the west-southwest in its wake and turn
breezy. Temperatures trend cooler overnight but it will take a
few hours before a strong enough temperature difference between
the incoming cold air mass and the Lake Erie/Ontario waters
develop to elicit a lake effect response. Even when the lake
effect does begin overnight Wednesday, the west-southwest wind
direction looks to keep the lake effect bands directed mainly
upstream of our area with only the western Adirondacks
seeming impacts. In addition to the cooling temperature
overnight, west to southwesterly winds will also turn breezy
and turn even breezier on Thanksgiving day as cold air advection
continues. In fact, latest probabilistic guidance shows 40 to
60% chance for wind gusts on Thursday to exceed 35mph across
much of eastern NY and western New England. Luckily, the west-
southwest wind direction will keep temperatures seasonable for
late November. Otherwise, lake effect snow looks to continue to
be directed in the western Adirondacks through the days.

Once the main trough axis swings through the region Thursday
evening, winds likely shift to the west-northwest resulting in
lake effect snow bands veering to the west-northwest and thus
becoming redirected into more of the Mohawk Valley, northern
Catskills and southern Adirondacks with upslope snow developing
in the southern Greens. With broad troughing and cold air
advection extending into the Great Lakes, a multi-lake
connection may develop which would not only intensify the lake
bands but also help the bands extend further east. For now, our
latest forecast shows high chance and likely POPs for snow
Thurs night into Friday morning limited to the Mohawk Valley
and western/southern Adirondacks with chance POPS spilling
further east down the I-90 corridor including the Upper Hudson
Valley and southern VT. As winds continue to veer to the
northwest Friday afternoon/night, lake effect bands likely
shift to the northwest and become more directed into the
northern/eastern Catskills with upslope continuing in the
Adirondacks. Besides the lake effect snow on Friday, winds will
turn even stronger on Friday given the more favorable cold air
advection and northwest flow regime. There is a 30 to 70% chance
for winds to exceed 40mph on Friday down the Mohawk Valley,
Capital District into western New England and in the eastern
Catskills. Combination of gusty winds and lake effect snow bands
can also further reduce visibility on Friday.

Latest probabilistic guidance shows 40 to 80% chance for at
least 4 inches of snow from the Mohawk Valley into the western
Adirondacks between 7AM Thurs and 7AM Sat with a 30 to 60%
chance (winter weather advisory criteria) for at least 7 inches
of snow (winter storm warning criteria) in the western
Adirondacks. However, exact snowfall amounts will depend on the
duration, placement and intensity of the incoming lake effect
snow bands. The lake effect response and gusty winds looks to
finally weaken Friday night into Saturday as high pressure from
the Ohio Valley builds northeastward. Northwest flow will keep
temperatures seasonably cold into the holiday weekend.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 18z Monday...A disturbance will continue to bring
mainly scattered -SHSN to KALB/KGFL/KPSF this afternoon. The
more persistent activity will be at KGFL/KPSF, where occasional
MVFR/IFR vsby are expected. Will mention just occasional MVFR
vsby at KALB where some downsloping should limit
coverage/intensity. Most of the activity should remain north of
KPOU, with just a stray -SHRA there. As temperatures warm later
this afternoon, rain will mix in at KALB/KGFL with the snow
showers. Coverage will decrease by 00z Sunday at most sites, but
could linger in to the evening at KPSF with upslope flow there.
Will mention mainly MVFR cigs this evening except IFR at KGFL
and VFR at KPOU. BKN-OVC cigs should persist into Sunday
morning, at borderline VFR/MVFR levels. Winds will be south-
southwest around 5-10 kt today, becoming west-northwest at 5-10
tonight.

Outlook...

Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite RA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA.
Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely RA...SN.
Thanksgiving Day: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy. Slight Chance of RA...SN.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SN.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy. Chance of SN.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...31
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM...31
AVIATION...07