847
FXUS61 KALY 130652
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
152 AM EST Thu Nov 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Lake effect rain/snow showers and cool temperatures
continue today and Friday, although lake effect precipitation will
not be as widespread on Friday. Drier weather briefly returns
Saturday, but a low pressure system tracking to our north will bring
valley rain and high-elevation wintry mix changing to rain Saturday
night and Sunday. Additional lake effect snow showers will be
possible behind this storm early next week with another cold
airmass moving over the region.

&&

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Message:

- Additional lake effect rain/snow showers expected today, with
light accumulations of up to 1-3" in the higher elevations west and
south of the Capital District.

Discussion:
As of 1:50 AM EST...A sfc low tracking to our north
has weakened into an open wave/pressure trough. Behind this
system a long fetch of low-level NW flow has developed, which is
resulting in a band of lake effect rain/snow showers extending
down the Mohawk Valley, through the Capital District, and into
the Berkshires. We are also seeing fairly widespread lake effect
clouds, although there are some more breaks outside of this
main band of showers. Given the widespread cloud cover,
temperatures are running several degrees warmer than NBM
guidance, so we bumped up current temps and forecast overnight
lows (30s for most areas). Given these warm temperatures, we
will see more rain than snow with the lake effect, at least for
valley areas during the overnight period.

By mid-morning, winds shifting slightly more towards the North
will result in the lake band dropping south from the Mohawk
Valley and Capital District into the Schoharie Valley and
Catskills. With the passage of a weak cold frontal passage, 850
mb temps over the lakes drop to around -5C today. Lake Ontario
water temps are around +12z, so there will be plenty of
instability. Inversion heights above 700 mb and 25-30 kt winds
at 850 mb will all support an inland extent of the lake band
well into our forecast area, which will be further enhanced by
yet another upper shortwave tracking through the mean upper
trough. There will also be some upslope enhancement resulting
in rain/snow showers into Taconics and the higher terrain of
western New England today. Given these signals, we increase PoPs
and qpf amounts from the NBM closer to the namnest/RGEM.
However, temperatures outside of the high terrain still look to
be warm enough to support mainly rain showers with this lake
effect through much of the day today. The higher elevations of
far southwest Herkimer County and the Catskills could see an
additional 1-3" of snow, however. High temperatures will range
from 30s in the higher elevations to 40s for the valleys. It
will also be fairly breezy today, especially in the afternoon,
with northwest wind gusts of up to 25 kt. The highest gusts will
be mainly south of I-90, and will be highest for areas that see
any breaks of sun to help promote BL mixing.

Tonight and Friday...Lake effect rain/snow showers continue, but
winds veer more to the north and weaken as a surface high builds
into the Great Lakes. Inversion heights also lower as we see
increases subsidence, so this will help to result in more
multi- bands and limit the in land extent of the lake effect.
Thus, coverage of lake effect precip will diminish through
Thursday night and Friday, with only very minor additional
accumulations expected. A secondary cold front will move through
the region Thursday night and we are expecting more breaks in
the clouds compared to tonight, so lows are expected to be
mainly in the 20s to low 30s. Friday will still feature
continued low-level cold advection, so highs will actually end
up a degree or two cooler than on Thursday.

Friday night and Saturday...The surface high builds overhead, as
upper ridging moves from the Great Lakes over NY. This will
promote subsidence and generally dry conditions, with more
clearing of the lake effect clouds as well. Conditions look
favorable for radiational cooling Friday night, with lows
currently expected to drop into the 10s to mid 20s. Areas with
snow on the ground will likely see temperatures end up at least
a couple degrees below the current forecast. Saturday will see
temperatures rebound into the 30s (mountains) to 40s (valleys).
While the day starts off clear, mid and high clouds will begin
to increase through the afternoon ahead of our next weather
system. A few rain/snow showers can`t be ruled out after sunset
for the ADKs and western Mohawk Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Messages:

- High confidence in below normal temps continues through the
  long term period.

- High confidence in an other storm system bringing widespread
  precipitation to the region Saturday night into Sunday. There
  remains a 20-50% chance for at least a glaze of ice in the
  Adirondacks and upper Hudson Valley Saturday night into
  Sunday.

Discussion:
A potent upper shortwave will be tracking from southern Canada
into northern New England where it will close off into an upper
low to start the long term period. At the surface, this will
result in a deepening low pressure system tracking just north of
our region Saturday night into Sunday. While most areas will see
plain rain with this system, the warm advection/overrunning
setup with the warm front does support a wintry mix (mainly
freezing rain) across portions of the ADKs, southern Greens, and
possibly the upper Hudson or northern CT River Valleys. Freezing
rain for these areas would transition to plain rain Sunday
morning as the warm front lifts north. So, will message that
slippery travel conditions will be possible for these areas
Saturday night into Sunday morning. There is still some
uncertainty in how progressive this system will be, and overall
trends have been faster. Therefore, current forecast now shows
a drying trend for much of the region as we head through the day
Sunday. Highs Sunday will reach the 40s for most areas with
some 50s for valley areas south of I-90, although the warmth
will be short- lived as the system`s cold front tracks through
the region Sunday afternoon/evening, allowing temperatures to
drop back into the 20s for most areas Sunday night.

With a much colder airmass moving in behind this system, we will
once again see some additional lake effect snow Sunday night
into Monday. Still too early to determine exactly where any
lake bands will set up, but highest chance for additional
accumulating snow will be for the western ADKs, western Mohawk
Valley, and possibly northern Catskills. Highs Monday will be
back below normal with 30s to low 40s for most areas. It will
also become quite Sunday night and Monday with the sfc low
continuing to deepen as it departs to our E/NE. There are
signals that Tuesday into Wednesday should be drier (but still
seasonably chilly) as high pressure building in from the west
helps to shut down the lake effect snow.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 06Z Friday...An incoming disturbance will promote
westerly flow through tomorrow and support lake enhanced rain
showers and lower ceilings down the Mohawk Valley into western
New England. Therefore, we continue to show rain showers and
MVFR cigs at PSF with ceilings becoming MVFR at ALB shortly
before sunrise as a more organized band develops. Given cloud
coverage overnight and temperatures in the upper 30s to low 40s,
p-type looks to remain mainly rain. However, depending on the
precipitation intensity at PSF, there is a low chance for a
brief period of rain/snow mix 10-14 UTC due to wet-bulb
cooling. GFL and POU look to remain mainly north and south of
the lake enhanced showers/clouds and therefore likely remain
VFR. While lake enhanced rain bands become
disorganized/scattered near/shortly after 15 UTC resulting in
improved cigs at ALB, upsloping at PSF should maintain light
rain showers and MVFR cigs through the day.

Southwest winds 5-9 KT through 14-15 UTC before winds become
more westerly and turn gusty. Sustained winds reach 5-12kts at
all terminals with gusts up to 20-25 KTS through 21-22 UTC.
Strongest winds likely at POU where cigs will be higher,
promoting deeper boundary layer mixing. Winds then gradually
weaken by 22-23 UTC as the boundary layer decouples after
sunset but sustained winds remain 5-10kts through the end of the
TAF period.

Outlook...

Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite RA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely RA.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA...SHSN.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA...SHSN.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...35
SHORT TERM...35
LONG TERM...35
AVIATION...31