


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
515 FXUS61 KALY 152323 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 723 PM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Dry, seasonable conditions will persist through the end of the work week and into at least the first half of the weekend. Tranquil conditions will carry into Sunday with a brief warm up before a strong cold front track through the region and brings potentially widespread rain Sunday night through Monday. Conditions look to remain unsettled into Tuesday as an upper- level disturbance brings additional showers. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Surface high pressure is advancing eastward from the Upper Midwest/western Great Lakes in the wake of a weak cold front that tracked through the region this morning. As a result, clouds are eroding from northwest to southeast and patches of drizzle/virga seen on the KENX radar throughout the morning is exiting. The aforementioned anticyclone will drift eastward through Friday before settling overhead Saturday with an associated upper-level ridge cresting aloft. As such, dry and pleasant Fall conditions will remain in place across eastern New York and western New England through this period. However, it will be on the breezy side tomorrow as an upper-level low pressure system slides south into the Gulf of Maine from the Canadian Maritimes, increasing the pressure gradient in an already well-mixed environment. But, as gust speeds are only progged to reach 20 to 30 mph, no significant impacts are expected. Low temperatures tonight will fall to the upper 20s to 30s, but with a breeze anticipated to last throughout the night, frost formation will be mitigated. Highs will warm by a few degrees each day this period with values tomorrow in the upper 40s to mid/upper 50s; low 50s to low 60s Friday; and mid 50s to low 60s Saturday. Low temperatures Thursday night will be similar to those of tonight, but with a reduction in winds, frost/freeze is possible and will likely warrant advisories/warnings respectively for portions of the Hudson Valley and northwest Connecticut where the growing season is still ongoing through October 21st. Lows Friday will be in the upper 20s to mid 30s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Key Messages: - Moderate confidence in a strong frontal system bringing widespread rainfall Sunday night through Monday. - Probabilities for at least 0.5" across the region range from about 50-60% with a 20-40% chance for 1" or greater. Discussion: The long term period will begin as the short term ended with dry conditions and warming temperatures. Saturday`s lows will be on the mild side with values in the mid/upper 30s to low 40s. Despite the surface high and upper-level ridge exiting to the east throughout the day Sunday, the elevated geopotential heights will translate to highs that are above normal levels, primarily spanning the 60s to low 70s. Attention quickly turns then to Sunday night into Monday were a strong frontal system looks to bring another widespread rainfall. Fairly good agreement exists in the guidance surrounding the track and timing of a potent surface cyclone and associated upper- level cut off low sliding into the eastern Great Lakes by Sunday evening. Rain would then spread into the region from west to east as the trough beneath the low takes on a negative tilt late Sunday night. At this time, rain looks to linger through Monday, potentially in a couple of rounds should dry air sneak into the rear flank of the low Monday morning/afternoon. The most uncertainty at this point pertains to rainfall amounts and how long rain lingers on the back side of the system, given there are differences in how, where, and when it departs. We will continue to monitor conditions going forward and provide additional details as confidence continues to increase. Depending on when the system departs, showers could linger into Monday night and possibly even as far as into Tuesday. For now, given the uncertainty, we stayed close to the latest version of NBM. But additional rainfall amounts would be fairly minimal. Lows Sunday night will generally be in the 40s to low 50s. Highs Monday and Tuesday will be in the 50s and 60s with lows each night in th upper 30s to mid 40s. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions continue through the TAF period for all TAF sites. Light north to northeast winds between 3 and 8 knots continue tonight into 12z when winds begin to increase. Included LLWS at 2 kft for KPSF through 06z as winds could gust 35kt. Northerly winds become more northwesterly tomorrow morning into the afternoon hours ranging between 10 and 15 knots with gusts ranging between 20 and 30 knots. Between 16/22z and 17/00z, winds begin to decrease to less than 15 knots for beyond the current 00z TAF period. Outlook... Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. Areas FROST. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA. Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...37 SHORT TERM...37 LONG TERM...37 AVIATION...05