481
FXUS61 KALY 102358
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
658 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

.UPDATE...
Snow shield has expanded across eastern NY into western New
England. Ptype has remained mainly snow across the Capital
Region/mid Hudson Valley/Taconics westward into the central
Mohawk Valley/eastern Catskills and Helderbergs. Snowfall totals
coming in for portions of Schoharie and Montgomery Counties have
reached 1 to 3.5" in these areas based on LSR/PNS reports. We
have expanded the Winter Weather Advisory to include Schoharie,
Montgomery, western Schenectady, western Albany, western Greene
Counties for an additional 1-3" on top of 1-4" that has
potentially occurred. The snow will impact the evening commute
and we have most of the Capital Region/mid Hudson Valley and
Taconics in an SPS for the rest of the afternoon into the early
evening. Temps are running cooler than the forecast and have
been adjusted down due to the wet bulb cooling predominant snow
ptype.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong clipper system will move through eastern New York and
western New England, today, with accumulating snows mainly across
the higher elevations. Lake effect snow showers and upslope snow
with gusty winds are expected behind the system for Thursday. Cold,
well below normal temperatures continue into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:

- Winter Storm Warning and Winter Weather Advisory continue for
accumulating snow associated with passing clipper. Please see latest
statements for additional details.

- Winter Weather Advisory for lake effect snow for southern Herkimer
  through Friday morning.

- Breezy Thursday and Friday with wind gusts around 30-50 MPH,
  especially across the Berkshires.

Discussion:

As of 12:30 PM...Surface observations from 1600z showed our clipper
system centered across eastern Michigan and Lake Erie, with a warm
front extending eastward across Lake Ontario into northern New York.
Light to moderate snow was ongoing across portions of eastern New
York and western New England ahead of it, thanks to strong low-level
forcing with a LLJ and 925-850 hPa frontogenesis. Temperatures as of
this hour ranged from the upper 20s to mid 30s, with the higher end
of values across the Hudson River Valley.

Through the remainder of this afternoon and evening, expected
precipitation to continue across much of the area as the clipper and
its trailing arctic front move across the region. Snow will remain
the dominant precip type over the next few hours, but may begin to
mix with or change over to plain rain in the river valleys as
surface temperatures continue to warm into the 30s with
strengthening southerly flow ahead of the front. While occasional
bursts of snow are expected across the Capital District, strong
downsloping winds and mild temperatures will help to really
keep snow totals down here. Speaking of which, snow totals
remain relatively unchanged with this forecast, with the highest
amounts expected mainly across the higher elevations of the
ADKs, Catskills and southern Greens, where amounts may approach
a foot in some locations. Please see the latest warning and
advisory statements.

To reiterate from the previous AFD, the terrain and temperatures are
going to be the biggest influence with this clipper system for
snowfall totals today. Be prepared for winter weather impacts this
afternoon and evening in high terrain locations.

Cold front trailing with this clipper system is progged to move
through the region tonight. Behind this system, lake effect snow
showers and upslope snow return for Thursday through Friday as well
as gusty winds. In collaboration with surrounding offices, went
ahead and issued a Winter Weather Advisory for lake effect snow
for southern Herkimer County through Friday morning, where
additional snowfall accumulations of around 3-6 inches can be
expected. In addition, a Wind Advisory has been issued for
Berkshire County in western Massachusetts, where wind gusts
above 45 MPH are expected at times Thursday morning through
Friday morning. NBM probabilities remain high for gusts around
45 MPH (60-100%), especially Thursday night, with low-level
mixing helping to bring down winds aloft around 40-50 kts.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Message:

- An active weather regime will remain in place through the long
  term with several chances of precipitation and continued below
  normal temperatures.

Discussion:

Lake effect snow showers Friday, with low chances remaining for
light snow showers Friday across Herkimer county. Most locations
stay dry and cold with highs in the 20s and low 30s. Winds decrease
Friday morning with gusts between 5 and 15 mph.

Our weather pattern into the weekend looks to remain active as
ensemble forecast model guidances are supporting an upper level
trough to dig southward and move through eastern New York and
western New England, bringing additional chances of snow showers. In
addition, this trough will bring another shot of colder air behind
it with an arctic front moving through Sunday. This will lead to the
potential for bitterly cold temperatures Monday morning with lows
ranging five below to the single digits.

Dry conditions are favored to briefly return Monday as the upper
level trough heads east and upper level ridging moves in. Highs
Monday will range from the teens to the 20s. These below normal
temperatures look to stick around into early next week with cold
lows in the single digits and highs in the 20s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 00z Fri...IFR/MVFR conditions continue to impact the TAF
sites early this evening. Snow continues at KGFL/KPSF with IFR
vsbys and IFR/MVFR cigs while some spotty light snow continues
at KPOU with MVFR cigs/vsbys with the pcpn ending at KALB with
IFR cigs and VFR vsbys. The snow will diminish toward
03Z-05Z/Thu with flight conditions continuing to rise into the
MVFR levels at all the TAF sites. KGFL may linger a little later
towards 08Z/Thu. The cigs will generally be 1.0-3.0 kft AGL
after 06Z/Thu. Expect flight conditions to rise to VFR levels
between 10Z-13Z/Thu except at KPSF where some high MVFR cigs
around 3 KFT may linger until noontime. Sct-bkn stratocumulus in
the 3.5-5 kft AGL range will continue during the afternoon into
the early evening.

LLWS will continue to be an issue at the TAF sites until
02Z-05Z/THU with the 2 kft AGL around 35-45 KT and the sfc winds
generally 10 KT or less. The winds will be southerly 5-10 KT
with gusts around 20 KT especially at the KALB. The winds will
veer to the S/SW 8-15 KT between 06Z-12Z/Thu with some gusts
25-30 KT. The winds will continue increase tomorrow morning into
the afternoon at 12-20 KT with some gusts in the 25-35 KT range
with highest gusts at KALB/KPSF.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHSN.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHSN.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHSN.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHSN.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHSN.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Thursday for NYZ032-033-
     082.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for NYZ038.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for NYZ039>043-
     047-048-051-058-063-083.
MA...Wind Advisory from 10 AM Thursday to 10 AM EST Friday for
     MAZ001-025.
VT...Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Thursday for VTZ013-014.

&&

$$

UPDATE...15
SYNOPSIS...17
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM...17
AVIATION...15