257
FXUS61 KALY 142319
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
619 PM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

.UPDATE...
As of 430 PM EST, shortwave approaching from north invigorating
rain/snow shower coverage across the upper Hudson Valley, and
this should continue expanding southeast into southern VT over
the next 1-2 hours. NYS Mesonet webcams suggest snow/snow
pellets occurring at Chestertown (elev 1089 FT) with a quick
coating on colder surfaces. Lower elevations below 1000 feet
should be mostly rain, though some snow pellets/snow could mix
in at times. Across higher terrain areas above 1200 feet across
southern VT, a quick inch of snowfall will be possible over the
next 2-3 hours as this disturbance passes through. Have
adjusted PoPs accordingly (boosted into the 40-60%+ range in
these areas) through early this evening to account for the brief
uptick in shower coverage.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build over the region tonight bringing drier
weather and chilly temperatures. After a dry start to Saturday,
a frontal system will bring a period of rain Saturday afternoon
into Saturday night, which will start out as freezing rain for
parts of the Adirondacks and southern Vermont. Colder air
returns to the area Sunday through early next week with blustery
conditions and lake effect and upslope snow showers.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message:

- A low pressure system will bring a period of freezing rain to
  parts of the Adirondacks and southern Vermont late Saturday
  afternoon through Saturday evening. A Winter Weather Advisory
  is in effect for these areas.

Discussion:

One last upper shortwave within an upper level trough will push
across the region through this afternoon aiding in some light
rain and snow showers. Otherwise, a mostly cloudy afternoon
will continue with highs in the 30s and 40s. As the trough
departs tonight and upper level ridging builds into the region,
clouds will partially clear and, with light to calm winds, will
allow temperatures to fall into the teens and 20s. Any morning
sun will fade behind increasing clouds as the high departs to
the east and a frontal system approaches from the west. The
earlier arrival of clouds may result in cooler temperatures for
the afternoon with temperatures in the upper 30s to upper 40s.
Some of the latest CAMs suggest that temperatures may even fall
short of current forecast values as the quick thickening of
clouds would limit daytime warming potential.

An approaching upper level shortwave and surface warm front will
bring the return of precipitation Saturday afternoon into Sunday
night. A surge of warm air aloft combined with surface
temperatures above freezing will allow precipitation to mainly
fall in the form of rain. However, surface temperatures across
parts of the Adirondacks and southern Vermont may be near or
below freezing for a period of time for freezing rain to occur
before temperatures rise above freezing. Increasing confidence
in light ice amounts (a light glaze to around one tenth of an
inch) led to the issuance of a Winter Weather Advisory for
portions of the Adirondacks and southern Vermont. While isolated
pockets of freezing rain may also occur across portions of the
upper Hudson Valley, the overall coverage and confidence was not
high enough to issue an advisory at this time. Temperatures
Saturday night will fall into the upper 20s to around 40 but
slowly rise during the second half of the night as the warm
front lifts northward across the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Message:

- Blustery conditions expected Sunday through early next week
  along with lake effect and upslope snow showers.

Discussion:

The system`s cold front crosses the region Sunday morning with
cold air advection and blustery conditions building in its wake
as an upper level trough rebuilds overhead. Moist, cyclonic flow
and 850 hPa temperatures falling below 0C will develop another
round of lake effect and upslope snow showers. Latest guidance
is favoring a more northwesterly wind flow which would favor the
stronger lake effect bands to be oriented south of I-90 across
Schoharie County and into the eastern Catskills. Some fragments
of the band could extend into the mid-Hudson Valley and possibly
even into northwestern CT at times. Upslope snow showers will
be favored across the Adirondacks and the northern and central
Taconics into parts of western New England. These snow showers
will continue through Monday before gradually diminishing on
Tuesday as surface high pressure builds into the area. Snowfall
amounts look to be on the lighter side, mainly on the order of a
coating to 2 inches. However, where a more localized band of
steadier snow sets up, some higher amounts can occur. Winds
will also pick up in the wake of the cold front on Sunday and
continue into Monday as the surface low rapidly strengthens
across Atlantic Canada. Gusts between 25 and 40 mph are
expected for much of eastern New York and western New England
during this time.

A period of drier weather is expected for the middle of the week
with surface high pressure overhead and more zonal flow sets up
aloft. Another upper level disturbance looks to approach the
region later next week with some additional precipitation,
through there in some uncertainty with overall timing of such
system. Temperatures for the remainder of next week will
continue to run slightly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 00z Sunday...VFR conditions are expected this evening despite
occasional Cigs 4000-6000 FT AGL through ~05Z/Sat. At KPSF,
periods of MVFR Cigs are expected to develop after 05Z/Sat and
may linger until 12Z-14Z/Sat, with some IFR Cigs possible during
this time. Elsewhere, mainly VFR conditions after midnight
although can not rule out some patchy ground fog developing at
KGFL and KALB at times through 14Z/Sat. VFR conditions are then
expected through late Saturday afternoon despite increasing
high/mid level clouds. Light rain is then expected to overspread
the TAF sites from west to east between 22Z-24Z/Sat, which
could produce MVFR Vsbys/Cigs.

West/northwest winds 5-10 KT should become light/variable after
midnight and continue through Saturday morning. Winds should
then become south to southeast at 5-10 KT by Saturday afternoon,
with a few gusts up to 15-20 KT possible at KALB after 20Z/Sat.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite RA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 35 kts. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA...SHSN.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 33 kts. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM Saturday to 1 AM EST Sunday
     for NYZ033-042-082.
MA...None.
VT...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM Saturday to 1 AM EST Sunday
     for VTZ013-014.

&&

$$

UPDATE...24
SYNOPSIS...33
SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...33
AVIATION...24