163
FXUS61 KALY 111852
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
152 PM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Blustery and cold conditions will persist into tonight, with
lake effect and upslope snow showers and flurries. The heavier
lake effect snows will be in the western Mohawk Valley and
western Adirondacks. A chilly air mass will remain across the
region through the work week, with bouts of rain and snow
showers with a couple of upper level disturbances into Friday.
High pressure builds in late Friday into the first half of
weekend with dry weather, but still below normal temperatures
for mid November.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Messages:

- High confidence for below normal temps and accumulating lake
  effect snow across the western Adirondacks/western Mohawk
  Valley into tonight. Winter Weather Advisory for southern
  Herkimer County for 2-6" snow.

- Winds gusting around 40 mph across parts of the Mohawk
  Valley, Capital Region, eastern Catskills, northern Taconics
  and Berkshires today.

Discussion:

Main change for the rest of this afternoon was to increase snow
amounts across the Taconics and Berkshires, where persistent
upslope flow interacting with lake effect moisture has produced
a quasi-stationary area of moderate to heavy snow showers in
these areas. Raised snowfall to 2-3" where the most persistent
snow showers have been falling. The upslope set up should get
disrupted early this evening as brief short-wave ridging in the
low levels lowered inversion heights and reduces available
moisture/instability. Otherwise, narrow lake effect snow bands
continue to move across areas mainly including the Mohawk Valley
into parts of the Schoharie Valley. Will allow the Winter
Weather Advisory to continue through 6 PM for S. Herkimer County
as radar and webcams showing snow still occurring with NYS
Mesonet estimating about 3" of snow at the Herkimer site. Totals
of 2-6" still look reasonable in this area, with < 1" farther
south/east. Scattered snow showers will also continue to move
across parts of the Hudson Valley this afternoon with steep
lapse rates within the mixed layer.

Upslope snow will diminish this evening, with lake effect snow
showers west of the Hudson Valley continuing, but expected to
weaken and gradually lift north as the flow backs ahead of the
next short wave trough approaching from the Great Lakes. An
additional 1-2" may accumulate in some spots of the SW
Adirondacks as the lake effect snow bands drift north. Outside
of the lake effect it should be mainly dry through much of the
night, although chances for snow showers will increase again
towards early Wed morning, as the aforementioned disturbance
moves in. It will remain cold and blustery tonight, with lows
ranging from the lower 20s to lower 30s.

Snow showers will be around much of Wed, with coverage most
prevalent in the W. Mohawk Valley/W. Adirondacks and also the
higher terrain east of the Hudson Valley where 1-3" could
accumulate. Some snow showers could occur in the Capital
District, but low level W-SW flow leads to downslope flow
mitigating much in the way of accumulation other than a dusting.
Also, low level temperatures expected to warm enough for a
rain/snow mix in valleys by afternoon. Highs should reach the
mid 30s to mid 40s.

In wake of the disturbance, the flow direction will shift to
W-NW Wed night into Thu. Lake effect and some upslope will
develop again, although low level temperatures aren`t as cold so
rain could still mix in below 1000 ft elevation. So snow
accumulations will likely be limited to the Adirondacks and S.
Greens with generally another 1-3" Wed through Wed night. No
headlines expected at this time, although will have to monitor
for possible heavier/persistent lake bands developing in some
spots. Lows will be somewhat milder Wed night with mid 20s to
mid 30s, but highs Thu will still be below normal ranging from
upper 30s to around 50F. Another upper level disturbance will
bring additional rain/snow showers on Thu, especially west of
the Hudson Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Messages:

- High confidence in below normal temps continuing through the
  long term period.

- An approaching storm system could bring rain and/or a wintry
  mix Saturday night into Sunday. There is a 20-50% chance of
  freezing rain across the southern Adirondacks and southern
  Green Mountains.

Discussion:

Lake effect snow showers may develop again Thu night behind a
disturbance. With NW flow forecast, most of any lake effect
should be lighter multi-bands and confided to the W. Mohawk
Valley and N. Catskills, with some upslope snow showers into the
W. Adirondacks. Any accumulations look minor < 1". Yet another
disturbance is expected to move through the mean trough in the
NW flow regime on Fri. This could again result in mainly
scattered rain/snow showers. Temperatures look to remain below
normal with highs only in the mid 30s to mid 40s.

Dry/fair weather returns Fri night into Sat as the upper trough
finally exits and a small ridge of surface high pressure builds
in. The respite will be short-lived though, as another storm
system quickly approaches from the Great Lakes and southern
Canada Sat night into Sun. With the primary cyclone expected to
track well north in Canada, warm advection/over-running will
likely bring warmer air aloft. With a relatively cold air mass
still in place in the low levels, this favors a period of sleet
and/or freezing rain especially in higher terrain areas north of
Albany. NBM probs show a 20-50% chance of measurable ice in the
S. Adirondacks and S. Greens. Lower elevations and locations to
the south would likely see mainly rain. Will continue to
monitor trends. The system looks progressive, so widespread
precip should taper off Sun night.

Upper level trough looks to remain in place early next week, so
isolated to scattered rain/snow showers are possible with any
disturbances that pass through. Temperatures continue to be
below normal through at least next Tue.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
We start the TAF period with a variety of conditions. VFR
conditions at KPOU continue through the TAF period. Light to
moderate snowfall due to upslope continues for KPSF through at
least 21z with visibilities ranging between a half of a mile to
two miles. Mentioned through 20z LIFR conditions in the
prevailing line with improvement to IFR/MVFR conditions in a
TEMPO group for visibilities and ceilings. Between 20z and 22z,
mentioned in a TEMPO group light snow with MVFR visibilities as
shower activity begins to gradually end during this timeframe.
For KALB, light snow from lake effect snow showers continue to
move through this afternoon with end timing of shower activity
included in a TEMPO group for between 18z and 20z. While VFR
conditions should be the primary flying condition through
12/12z, during the light snow showers ceilings could briefly
lower to MVFR.

For KGFL, VFR conditions should continue through 12/12z when
ceilings begin to lower to MVFR and gradually decrease through
the morning with light snow shower activity increasing. For KALB
and KGFL, depending on the temperatures tomorrow morning, a mix
of rain and snow could occur between 15z and 18z before
transitioning over to rain showers after 18z with a mix of
IF/MVFR flying conditions.

Winds continue to be light and variable at KGFL, but increase
this afternoon to between 8 and 12 knots. Westerly to west-
southwest winds continue for KPOU, KALB, and KPSF through this
afternoon ranging between 5 and 15 knots with gusts periodically
ranging between 20 and 30 knots. Winds gradually decrease to
less than 12 knots between 00z and 06z and continue to be less
than 12 knots through the end of the TAF period.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...SHSN.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA...SHSN.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHSN.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHSN.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA...FZRA...SLEET.
Sunday: High Operational Impact. Likely RA.


&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for NYZ038.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...07/15
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...05