900
FXUS64 KAMA 041039
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
539 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

-Breezy winds, especially in the northwest Panhandles on Saturday
 could lead to slightly elevated Fire Weather conditions in the
 Northwestern Panhandles, given the recent drying trend.

-Watching a weather system next week that could bring
 precipitation chances back to the Panhandles as early as Sunday
 night, and chances will increase and continue through at least
 mid week.

-Highs mid to late next week look to be 15 to 25 degrees cooler
 than this weekend which is expected to be in the upper 80s to
 lower 90s.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

Latest model agreement continues to see the progression of an
upper-level trough into Western Colorado. This progression will
see the exit of the present ridge and its associated high pressure
today. While the Panhandles will likely stay dry for the day,
models are expecting a mid to low-level jet to form over the
northwest during the afternoon period. This jet will have ample
opportunity to bleed down in these dry conditions allowing for
southerly to southwesterly winds to reach around the 20 to 30 mph
mark with gusts reaching near 35 mph. Thankfully these winds will
have to combat minimum RH values still above 20% and still green
vegetation that will keep fire starts difficult for the Despite
this, potential is present for some elevated concerns to make
their presence know, especially in Cimarron county where winds
will likely be their strongest. As for Sunday, the present trends
form the models continue to the expected the incoming trough to
take a more northerly track out of Northern Colorado. This
placement has seen precipitation chances diminish for Sunday as
current placement now has the Panhandles well in the dry slot.
However, a few of the more recent CAMs have suggested that a
surface boundary could set up during this passage, which may give
us just enough to get a few isolated storms across the Northern
and Central Panhandles. Given this recent trend, have decided to
extend 10 to 20% chances further south than the most recent run of
the NBM had. Otherwise, temperatures do look to cool slightly
with the movement of the trough as most locations look to be in
the mid to upper 80s for both afternoons.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

Chance for precipitation do look to improve as we move into the
new week with models seeing a secondary trough push into the
Pacific Northwest while an upper-level high pressure system builds
across the Southern Untied States. This set up, as we seen it do
all summer, will invite moisture from the gulf to return to the
Panhandles, At this time, models are seeing PWAT values rise back
above one inch, with this moisture looking to hold through the
middle or next week. For Monday in particular, models have hinted
at a stalled frontal boundary forcing its way near the Panhandles
thanks to a potential short-wave disturbance forcing the trough to
shift. This stalled front will help severe as lifting mechanism
to take advantage of the expected moisture and give the Panhandles
a 20 to 40% chance for precipitation. From here both ECMWF and
GFS do see this trough and the stalled front make its way further
into the Panhandles sometime late Tuesday into Wednesday, but how
far south it actually goes is still a big uncertainty. The NBM
keeps favoring the idea of activity following this front, with
widespread chances of precipitation now sitting around 30 to 50%.
Beyond this passage, models has been more in favor of drier
weather returning to close out the week with latest runs now
seeing the upper-level high rebuild over the Panhandles.
Regardless the progression of the low will likely see temperature
cool through next week with afternoon highs dropping into the
upper 60 to low 70s by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 537 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

VFR conditions are anticipated through this TAF period. Winds will
strengthen during the day, initially out of the southwest but
changing to southerly in the afternoon. At its strongest, winds
will be sustained at 20-25 kts with gusts between 30-35 kts. The
winds should gradually weaken through the night.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...52