Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
836 FXUS64 KAMA 150527 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1127 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1124 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025 - Above average temperatures persist through at least Tuesday, with each day getting gradually cooler. - Next significant weather system looks to be on the horizon for Tuesday night through Friday, with increased precipitation chances. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 1124 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025 Winds may stay up a bit overnight in the 10 mph range, and that will help keep the temperature well mixed. So overnight lows only expected to be in the 40s to lower 50s across the Panhandles. Another very warm day on Saturday, but we do have a weak frontal system in the morning. Mainly it`s just a wind shift out of the north and then to the northeast. RH values will still be pretty low in the teens, and highs will be in the mid 70s to mid 80s in the southeast. Saturday night into Sunday the ridge will start to break down as the next system currently off the CA coast is expected to inch closer to the for corners. In general cooler air from the northeast may try to cut highs down to the lower to mid 70s, but we`ll still have southwest flow approaching the Panhandles and the southwest still could break 80 degrees on Sunday. As winds stay up Sunday night again, there will be another mild night with lows mainly in the mid to upper 40s. Normal low for this time of year is low to mid 30s. Weber && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Friday) Issued at 1124 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025 The system that was over the Four Corners is expected to take on an negative tilt and become an open wave and eject to the northeast. This will clip the Panhandles on Monday. We should see an uptick in winds wit sustained winds 15-25 mph and RH values down around 15-20 percent. This will likely create some elevated Fire Weather conditions. Highs will be in the 70s on Monday. Next weather system will approach from CA on Tuesday and turn flow more southerly over the Panhandles. Expect that increased moisture and cloud cover will lead to a bit of a cool down, despite the continued southerly flow. Right now still not pops on Tuesday, but will not rule out some isolated chances to possibly be added in the southeast as we get closer, as that Gulf moisture is drawing up closer. Wednesday the system will be over the Four Corners and both Pacific and Gulf moisture will have a better chance at brining pops to the Panhandles. A little more of a cool down with highs in the 60s on Wednesday, but still above normal for this time of year. Thursday the system is expected to move across the Panhandles, with a cool down to bring temperatures right around normal. Thursday looks to have the best chance at precipitation, but there`s still a possible chance that we get dry slotted again based on the potential negative tilt the system may take. By Friday the system should be passed, precipitation chances will drop off and we`ll still be under the cooler back side of the system, with near normal temperatures, but another ridge looks to be returning for the weekend. Weber && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1124 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025 VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites over the next 24 hours. Main focus will be several winds shifts with a surface low moving across the Panhandles. Winds will start out of the south to southwest and come around the clock through the TAF period to end out of the east. Some LLWS possible at KAMA and KGUY through 16z. Weber && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...89 LONG TERM....89 AVIATION...89