171
FXUS63 KAPX 170703
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
203 AM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Lake effect snow showers taper in intensity through the day today.

-Largely dry weather carrying past midweek with a slight warming
 trend.

-Next rain chances set for later Thursday into Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 203 AM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

Pattern Synopsis:

Longwave troughing being forced eastward by amplifying northern
stream ridging, forcing oblong NNW to SSE oriented area of surface
high pressure into the region throughout the day. Cold advection
regime through northwest flow will lose its punch today as the
surface high slackens the pressure gradient overhead. The combination
of this along with height rises / upper level subsidence will lead
to the deterioration of lake induced instability through the day
today before we trend dry for the overnight hours as the surface
high moves overhead.

Forecast Details:

Still contending with some weakening lake effect snow into the day
this morning, albeit with a minimalistic impact. Northwest flow will
be on the weakening side... which will keep the activity confined to
the more traditional lake effect snowbelts across eastern upper and
northwest lower Michigan. Accumulations are going to be hindered by
marginal temperatures in the mid to upper 30s for most... even
moreso than yesterday due to lesser snowfall rates. Winds subside
considerably tonight as the surface high builds overhead. Lack of
saturation in the low levels will lead to no fog concerns. Mostly
clear and chilly tonight... lows in the teens to near 20 inland,
upper 20s to near 30 along the coasts where some lingering land and
lake breeze convergence may continue to drive clouds (largely NW
lower and eastern upper).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 203 AM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

Pattern Summary:

Split flow from the Pacific well into NOAM will dominate the
forecast period, with northern Michigan initially resting in the
neutral point of the split flow... allowing for minimal sensible
weather Tuesday and Wednesday. Northern stream ridging continues its
build into the region, while a southern stream wave ejects out of
the Four Corners region and zips into the Ohio Valley... with just
enough moisture to increase cloud cover across the far southern
portions of the CWA, while rain/snow holds downstate. We embark on a
warming trend as temperatures recover into the 40s through the
week... then another southern stream wave intrudes from the south
and west later this week.

Per long term guidance, this wave appears to have a bit more
spunk to it, which should lead to a more respectable plume of
moisture being drawn into the region via a WAA wing, though deeper
moisture probably is suppressed to our south once again. With
temperatures running above normal, this system is anticipated to
be mostly, if not, all rain for the Thursday night - Friday
timeframe. Blended guidance seems bullish on moisture being retained
in the wake of this system, but conceptually. Most guidance seems
bearish on any significant cold air intrusion through the remainder
of the forecast period... thus would not be shocking to see the
forecast trend nebulous / misty for the upcoming weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1049 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

Gusty northwest winds and lake effect snow bands continue across
the northern Michigan terminal area into the overnight hours.
VFR conditions prevail outside of the stronger snow bands. High
pressure building into the area will continue to diminish the
strength/coverage of the lake effect snow bands with time
overnight into early Monday.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
     LHZ345>349.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LMZ323-
     342-344>346.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for LMZ341.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LSZ321-
     322.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAD
LONG TERM...HAD
AVIATION...PBB