652
AXNT20 KNHC 220543
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sat Nov 22 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0600 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N16W and continues
southwestward to 08N21W. The ITCZ extends from 08N21W to 06N40W
and to 08N59W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 12N
between 22W and 50W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

High pressure centered over the W Atlantic dominates the Gulf,
with moderate to fresh E to NE winds prevailing S of 24N. Winds
N of 24N are moderate or weaker. Seas of 1-4 ft prevail across the
Gulf.

For the forecast, relatively weak high pressure extends from the
western Atlantic westward over the eastern and central Gulf. The
high pressure will shift southeastward through Sun as a mostly dry
cold front moves across the northern Gulf waters. Fresh to
locally strong southeast to south winds are expected to develop
offshore of Texas and eastern Mexico Sun night into Mon afternoon
before becoming mostly fresh south to southwest winds across the
central and western Gulf through late Mon night as another weak
cold front moves off the Texas coast. The front will continue to
weaken as it reaches from the NE Gulf to the central Gulf by Wed.
A stronger cold front is forecast to move off the Texas coast late
Tue night, and reach from the near the western Florida panhandle
to the west-central Gulf by late Wed. Fresh northeast winds are
expected behind this front. Otherwise, moderate to occasionally
fresh northeast to east winds are expected each afternoon and
evening in the Bay of Campeche and north of the Yucatan Peninsula
as a diurnal trough develops and moves westward over the region.
Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are expected
elsewhere through much of this weekend.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring in the
SW Caribbean, where the East Pacific monsoon trough extends across
the region. High pressure located N of the area combined with the
Colombian low is promoting fresh to strong trade winds offshore
Colombia with seas of 5-7 ft. Moderate to fresh E to NE winds and
seas of 3-5 ft prevail across the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, strong NE to E winds will pulse offshore of
northern Colombia each night and morning through the middle of
next week as low pressure prevails over the south-central
Caribbean. These winds will bring rough seas to the waters near
northwest Colombia. Otherwise, high pressure centered over the
western Atlantic will support moderate to fresh trade winds and
moderate seas over the rest of the basin through early next week.


...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the forecast area near 31N65W and continues
SW to near 26N73W. No significant convection is noted along the
frontal boundary. High pressure dominates the remainder of the
western Atlantic, with a 1020 mb high pressure located near 32N73W.
Moderate to locally fresh NE winds are blowing between the
Bahamas and Cuba while light to gentle winds are observed across
the remainder of the area W of 55W. Seas of 2-5 ft prevail in this
region. To the E, a surface trough is analyzed from 31N52W to
19N57W. An upper level trough also has its axis roughly along 55W.
The interactions between these features as well as convergent
surface winds is leading to a large area of scattered moderate
convection N of 20N between 44W and 53W. The pressure gradient
between this trough and high pressure of 1034 mb located NE of the
Azores is resulting in an area of fresh to strong NE to E winds N
of 24N and E of 50W. Rough seas are within these wind speeds.
Mainly moderate to fresh trades with moderate seas dominate the
remainder of the tropical Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, locally fresh northeast winds are
expected over the southern Bahamas and through the Windward
Passage through Sat morning as low pressure prevails in the south-
central Caribbean. Farther north, moderate to fresh southwest to
west winds will occur offshore of northern Florida by Sat morning,
with winds expanding farther east into the central Atlantic
through Sun morning, ahead of a cold front pushing off the east
coast of the United States. The cold front is forecast to move
southeastward along the Florida Peninsula and into the
northwestern waters this weekend into early next week, with
moderate to fresh north to northeast winds and building seas
expected in the wake of the front. Looking ahead, widespread
moderate to fresh trade winds will occur over much of the western
Atlantic by midweek as high pressure builds off the coast of the
eastern U.S.

$$
Adams