354
AXNT20 KNHC 160605
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Tue Sep 16 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 41W from 20N southward
across a broad 1009 mb low pressure (AL92) near 12N41W. This whole
system is moving west around 15 kt. Numerous scattered to
scattered strong convection is seen from 10N to 17N between 35W
and 42W. This system is showing signs of organization, and is
expected to move through a favorable environment for further
development. This system is showing signs of organization, and is
expected to move through a favorable environment for further
development. A tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to
form by the middle to latter part of this week. There is a medium
chance of tropical development within the next 48 hours, and a
high chance within the next 7 days. Please visit the NHC website:
https://nhc.noaa.gov/cyclones/?atl for more detail.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
Read the Special Features section above on a central Atlantic
tropical wave.

Another central Atlantic tropical wave is near 55W from 21N
southward, and moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is seen from 16N to 23N between 53W and 58W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 74W from near the
Windward Passage southward to over northeastern Venezuela. It is
moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered heavy showers and isolated
strong thunderstorms are noted from the Windward Passage eastward
across Hispaniola and Puerto Rico to the Virgin Islands.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Mauritian coast
near Nouakchott, then extends west-southwestward through a 1009
mb low near 12N41W (AL92) to 10N50W. Numerous moderate to isolated
strong convection is flaring up near and south of the trough from
09N to 13N east of 23W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
near the western end of the trough from 08N to 13N between 42W and
46W.

Aided by divergent flow aloft, the eastern end of the East Pacific
monsoon trough is causing numerous heavy showers and scattered
strong thunderstorms at the southwestern Caribbean Sea, including
waters near Panama.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A diurnal surface trough is coupling with an upper-level trough to
trigger scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the
eastern Bay of Campeche, and north of the Yucatan Peninsula.
Otherwise, a 1019 mb high over the northeastern Gulf is supporting
mostly gentle NE to E winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft for the eastern
Gulf, including the Florida Straits. Gentle to moderate with
locally fresh NE to ESE winds and 2 to 5 ft seas prevail for the
rest of the Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, the high will continue to dominate the Gulf
through the week, supporting gentle to moderate winds. Fresh
winds will prevail in the north-central and northwestern Gulf
tonight as the existing high being reinforced by a stronger high.
Moderate to fresh winds will pulse offshore the Yucatan Peninsula
each night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convergent trades are being enhanced by divergent southerly winds
aloft to generate numerous moderate to scattered strong convection
at the northwestern basin, including the Gulf of Honduras.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen over
central Cuba and the Cayman Islands. Refer to the Monsoon
Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional convection
in the Caribbean Sea.

A subtropical ridge near 26N continues to supply a trade-wind
regime across much of the basin. Moderate to fresh with locally
strong NE to E winds and 5 to 7 ft seas exist at the south-central
basin. Moderate with locally fresh NE to E winds and seas of 3 to
5 ft dominate the north-central, eastern and part of the
southwestern basin. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh ENE to
ESE winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft are seen at the Gulf of Honduras,
lee of Cuba and Windward Passage. Gentle NNE to E winds with 1 to
3 ft seas prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, a tropical wave will move across the central
basin on Tue and through the western basin Tue night into Thu
night. Expect fresh trades over the central basin into Tue night
in the wake of the wave. Another tropical wave is expected to
enter the eastern basin Tue into Wed. Fresh to strong trades will
pulse in the south-central basin into Wed. Otherwise, gentle to
moderate trades and seas will prevail through the week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section at the very beginning
about potential tropical cyclone formation in the central
Atlantic.

A mid-level low near 27N65W is triggering scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection northeast of the Bahamas from 23N to
28N between 59W and 70W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and
Tropical Waves sections at the beginning on additional convection
in the Atlantic Basin. A 1024 mb high near 32N50W is sustaining
gentle to moderate ENE to SE to SSW winds and 4 to 7 ft seas north
of 25N between 35W and the Florida/southern Georgia coast. For the
tropical Atlantic from 13N to 25N between 35W and the
Bahamas/Lesser Antilles, moderate to fresh with locally strong NE
to SE winds and seas at 5 to 9 ft are evident with the highest
winds and seas near 15N40W. For the remainder of the Atlantic
west of 35W, gentle to moderate with locally fresh SE to SW winds
and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned Atlantic high
pressure will maintain moderate winds and seas across the western
Atlantic through the week. Regardless of development about the
system mentioned in the Special Features section, expect
increasing winds and building seas over the waters east of the
Lesser Antilles by Thu into Fri.

$$

Chan