009
AXNT20 KNHC 222256
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sun Nov 23 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N15W and continues
southwestward to 09N19W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and
continues to 07N58W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted from 03N to 15N and E of 44W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A 1019 mb high pressure is centered near 27N89W. The pressure
gradient in the area is allowing for mostly light to gentle
anticyclonic winds across the basin, except for gentle to moderate
northeast to east winds south of about 23N and east of 94W. Seas
are in general 2 to 4 ft, except 1 to 2 ft in the NE Gulf. A
frontal boundary is along the coast of Texas generating scattered
showers and thunderstorms N of 26N and W of 94W.

For the forecast, the front will shift southeastward across the
northern Gulf Sun, stall late Sun and Mon, then lift northward
Tue. Expect fresh southerly flow off the Texas coast Sun night
through Mon night between low pressure over northeast Mexico and
high pressure over the Carolinas. These winds will diminish Tue
ahead of another front moving across the southern Plains. Looking
ahead, this stronger front will move into the northwest Gulf Wed,
then sweep to the southeast of the basin by late Thu, followed by
fresh NE winds and building seas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The combination between high pressure north of the area over the
western Atlantic and the Colombian low is resulting in fresh to
strong trade winds over most of the central Caribbean as captured
by a recent scatterometer pass. Seas are 6 to 8 ft with these
winds. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas are noted over
the remainder of the basin. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
are noted over the western section of the sea, mainly between
80W-86W.

For the forecast, fresh to strong northeast to east winds will pulse
offshore of northern Colombia each night and morning through the
middle of next week as low pressure prevails over the south-
central Caribbean. These winds will bring rough seas to the
waters near northwest Colombia. Elsewhere, high pressure
centered over the western Atlantic will support moderate to
fresh trade winds and moderate seas over the rest of the basin
through early next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is anaylzed from near 31N58W southwestward to
26N66W. No significant convection is associated with this front.
Mainly light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are on
either side of the front. Otherwise, high pressure dominates the
remainder of the western Atlantic, with a 1020 mb high pressure
situated near the NW Bahamas. Recent scatterometer satellite data
passes depict moderate to fresh northeast to east winds south of
about 23N west of 71W, including through the passages of the
Bahama Islands. These winds reach to along the coast of Cuba and
through the Straits of Florida.

Over the central Atlantic, a trough extends from near 30N51W to
20N53W. An upper-level low is near 25N53W. This feature is
providing upper support for the low/trough. Scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms are E of the trough axis to about 43W.
The pressure gradient between strong high pressure of 1031 mb
situated to the northeast of the Azores and lower pressures over
NW Africa is producing an area of fresh to strong northeast to
east winds N of 27N and east of 25W, including the N waters of
the Canary Islands. Seas of 8 to 10 ft in northeast to east swell
are over this area. Moderate to fresh southeast to south winds are
north of 25N between 40 and 45W or between the the trough and the
SW periphery of the Azores high pressure. Seas are 8 to 10 ft
with these winds. Otherwise, mostly moderate to fresh trades, with
moderate seas are present over the rest of the tropical Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, the front over the W-central
Atlantic will shift eastward then stall and dissipate through
Sun. High pressure off east-central Florida will dissipate
through Sun, ahead of another weak cold front that will move off
the northeast Florida coast early Sun. The front will reach from
Bermuda to Sebastian Inlet, Florida by early Mon. The eastern
portion of the front will continue eastward and reach from 30N55W
to 27N70W by early Tue, while the portion west of 70W starts to
lift northward. High pressure will build north of the front off
the Carolina coast, supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds and
moderate seas across the region, with large NW swell following
the front southeast of Bermuda. Looking ahead, winds and seas will
diminish west of 70W by Wed, ahead of front expected to move off
the northeast Florida coast early Thu. The front will reach from
Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by late Thu night, followed by
fresh NE winds and building seas.

$$
ERA