076
AXNT20 KNHC 200442
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Thu Nov 20 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0442 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N17W to 07N26W. The
ITCZ continues from that point to 09N52W. Scattered moderate
convection prevails from 03N to 11N and E of 27W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A broad surface ridge continues to dominate much of the Gulf.
Moderate E winds and moderate seas are present across the Florida
Straits. Light to gentle winds and slight seas are found at the
northeastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and slight to
moderate seas dominate the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, mainly moderate E to SE winds and slight to
moderate seas will occur over the basin into the weekend as high
pressure prevails over the northeastern Gulf and southeastern U.S.
Locally fresh NE winds will pulse offshore of the Yucatan
Peninsula and into the eastern Bay of Campeche each afternoon and
evening. Looking ahead, fresh to locally strong SE winds may
develop over the northwestern Gulf for the start of next week as
low pressure strengthens in the south- central U.S.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is producing isolated moderate convection over
the eastern Caribbean, including the Mona Passage and Lesser
Antilles. The eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough
is triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms along the
Caribbean coast of Panama mainly S of 12N. Fresh to locally strong
NE trade winds and rough seas are evident at the south-central
basin. Gentle to moderate NE to E trade winds with moderate seas
prevail elsewhere, except for fresh winds over the Windward
Passage and the offshore waters of central-Cuba.

For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh E to NE winds
are expected over the Caribbean through this weekend as a moderate
pressure gradient prevails between high pressure to the north and
low pressure in the south-central basin. Locally strong winds and
rough seas will pulse offshore of Colombia tonight, and again
starting this weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends west-southwestward from a weak 1019 mb
low near 31N55W, then it has begun to dissipate from 28N69W to
the northern Bahamas. In addition, a surface trough extends from
the same low southward to 22N53W. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is found along these features. This activity is also
supported by an upper- level low in the area. Another surface
trough is producing scattered moderate convection from 24N to 27N
between 39W and 44W. To the east, a cold front curves
southwestward from the northeastern Atlantic across 31N21W to
30N34W.

Light to gentle winds and moderate seas are noted north of 25N
between 65W and the Florida/Bahamas. Elsewhere, gentle to
moderate NE to E winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to occasionally fresh NE
winds are expected north of Hispaniola and Cuba and into the
Bahamas through Fri as high pressure prevails over the
southeastern U.S. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate
seas are expected elsewhere into the weekend. Looking ahead,
increasing SW winds and building seas may occur offshore of
northern Florida this weekend ahead of a cold front moving off the
southeastern U.S.

$$
KRV