652
AXNT20 KNHC 300937
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sun Nov 30 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Significant Swell: Recent scatterometer and
altimeter passes confirmed a large area of fresh to strong
easterly winds and 8 to 11 ft seas in a long plume across the
eastern and central Atlantic from roughly 20N to 28N between 15W
and 50W. These winds and seas are between strong high pressure
north of the area and a trough near 50W extending from 15N and
25N. The trough will continue to move to the W-NW at 20 to 25 kt
and pass mainly to the north of the Leeward Islands by mid week.
Winds will diminish slightly through the period, but given the
long fetch and duration of the winds, this pattern will support
seas building to 12 to 13 ft today and Mon over an area from 22N
to 28N between 45W and 55W. Winds and seas will diminish after
late Tue, but 8 to 10 ft will persist across tropical Atlantic
waters east of 60W through the latter part of the week.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 11N15W and
continues to 05N22W. The ITCZ extends from 05N22W to 04N30W to
08N55W. Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 06N to
09N between 12W and 17W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Fresh SE winds are evident across various buoys and platforms over
the far northwest Gulf, ahead of approaching cold front moving
into the Texas coastal plains. Buoy observations also show seas to
7 ft off the Texas coast. Fresh to locally strong E winds also
linger over the far southeast Gulf and Straits of Florida, south
of strong high pressure over the Carolinas. A plume of 5 to 7 ft
seas extends from the Straits of Florida into the southeast Gulf.
Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted
elsewhere across the Gulf. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
noted near a surface trough over the southeast Gulf just north of
the Yucatan Channel.

For the forecast, the winds and seas over the southeast Gulf will
diminish through this morning, as the high pressure north of the
area shifts eastward ahead of a cold front moving into the
eastern U.S. This front will enter the northwest Gulf later this
morning, then stall Mon night into Tue, when a low pressure will
form off Texas and move northeastward across the southeast U.S.
into the northwest Atlantic. Thereafter, the front will move
southeastward farther into the basin, but then stall over the
central Gulf through mid- week, as another low forms over South
Texas. Looking ahead, expect fresh southerly flow over the western
Gulf as the low pressure moves northeastward.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active between Hispaniola
and Panama, south of 15N, ahead of a broad upper trough reaching
from the Windward Passage to southern Nicaragua. Recent
scatterometer satellite passes indicated moderate to fresh NE to
E winds across the eastern Caribbean east of 80W. This is south of
strong high pressure north of the area over the western Atlantic.
Concurrent altimeter satellite passes indicated combined seas of
4 to 6 ft over the eastern Caribbean. Gentle to moderate NE to E
winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted over the western Caribbean.

For the forecast, the high pressure over the western Atlantic
will continue to support moderate to fresh trade winds across
most of the basin through the early part of the week. Winds and
seas will diminish by mid week as the high shifts east. Looking
ahead, expect fresh NE winds again over the north-central
Caribbean and off Colombia by late Thu as high pressure builds
over the eastern U.S.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for information on a
Significant Swell Event in the Central Atlantic.

A stationary front from 31N60W to the northern Bahamas
is followed by fresh to strong NE winds and moderate to rough
seas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring along the
frontal boundary and over the southern Bahamas ahead of a broad
upper trough along roughly 75W. Farther east, scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms are ongoing from 15N to 22N
between 40W and 50W. This activity is associated with an upper
low centered near 20N45W, which is also supporting the surface
trough along 50W described in the Special Features section above.
Aside from the large area of strong winds and rough seas also
described in the Special Features section, mostly moderate to
fresh winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted elsewhere across the
basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned front will
dissipate through today, and high pressure north of the front will
shift eastward, allowing winds and seas to diminish. Another weak
front will stall off the northeast Florida coast Mon, then lift
northward Mon night. Expect southerly winds and building seas
north of 29N and west of 75W late Mon and Tue as low pressure
moves from the northern Gulf to the Carolinas. Looking ahead,
these strong southerly winds will shift eastward Tue night into
Wed, north of 28N ahead of a cold front moving off the northeast
Florida coast Tue night. This front will reach from Bermuda to
South Florida by late Wed, and from 31N60W to eastern Cuba by late
Thu. Meanwhile, strong winds and rough seas will accompany a
trough moving westward into the waters northeast of the Leeward
Islands Sun through Tue night.

$$
Christensen