602
AXNT20 KNHC 241027
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Mon Nov 24 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1025 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra
Leone near 09N13W and continues southwestward to 08N16W. The ITCZ
extends from 08N16W to 07N35W and to 07N58W. Scattered moderate
convection is occurring E of 31W between 03N and 13N.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weak stationary front extends from the Florida panhandle to SE
Texas. No deep convection is noted near this boundary. A
tightening pressure gradient supports moderate to fresh southerly
winds off southern Texas and Tamaulipas, along with seas of 4-6
ft. Elsewhere south of 25N, gentle to moderate easterly winds and
seas of 3-5 ft prevail, while lighter winds and slight seas are
noted in the northern and eastern Gulf waters. Visibility has
diminished to 1 nm in the nearshore waters of Florida, mainly from
Panama City to Port Charlotte. Mariners should use caution.

For the forecast, the aforementioned front is expected to become
a warm front and lift northeastward this morning as low pressure
develops over the Southern Plains. Expect fresh southerly flow off
the Texas coast through tonight supported by the gradient between
low pressure over northeast Mexico and high pressure off the
Carolinas. These winds will diminish Tue ahead of a frontal
boundary that will be nearing the Texas coast. A stronger
reinforcing cold front will overtake the frontal boundary early
Wed, then move into the northwest Gulf. The cold front will then
sweep to the southeast of the basin by late Thu, followed by fresh
to strong northeast winds and building seas into the weekend.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms may accompany the initial
frontal boundary.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Divergence aloft continues to support scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms in the Gulf of Honduras and off Costa Rica,
Panama and NW Colombia. A scatterometer satellite pass from a few
hours ago showed fresh to strong NE winds in the south-central
Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 7-10 ft, as confirmed by a
recent altimeter pass. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds
and moderate seas are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a subtropical
ridge north of the islands and a lower pressures in NW Colombia
will sustain fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough seas
in the central Caribbean through late this week. Seas will peak
around 12 ft. In the remainder of the basin, the weather pattern
will support moderate to fresh breezes along with moderate seas
through the period. Looking ahead, a cold front will enter the NW
Caribbean on Fri, sustaining strong winds and rough seas behind
the boundary.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak cold front extends from near Bermuda to the Space Coast of
Florida and a few showers are seen near the boundary. The
remainder of the SW North Atlantic, west of 55W, is dominated by a
weak pressure gradient. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas
are found in these waters. Farther east, a surface trough is
observed along 48W and north of 20N, and scattered showers are
present north of 20N and between 40W and 50W. A couple of surface
troughs are evident in the eastern Atlantic, producing scattered
showers.

The rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a 1028 mb high
pressure system south of the Azores. Moderate to locally fresh
easterly winds and moderate seas are occurring north of 20N and
between 30W and 48W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and rough
seas are found north of 28N and east of 30W. Farthest east, fresh
to strong NE-E winds and rough seas are found from 10N to 19N and
east of 25W. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate
seas are present south of 20N and west of 30W. Elsewhere, moderate
or lighter winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, the eastern portion of the
aforementioned front will continue eastward and reach from 30N55W
to 27N70W by early Tue, while the portion west of 70W starts to
lift back north as a warm front. High pressure will shift eastward
off Carolina coast following the front, supporting moderate to
fresh northeast to east winds and moderate seas over the region.
Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish west of 70W by Wed,
ahead of a stronger front expected to move off the northeast
Florida coast Wed night. The front will reach from Bermuda to the
Straits of Florida by early Fri, followed by fresh northeast winds
and building seas through Fri night.

$$
Delgado