155
AXNT20 KNHC 171800
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Fri Oct 17 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Large Swell Event:
Northerly swell generated from a storm force low over the Atlantic
waters north of the discussion area will support rough to very
rough seas over the western Atlantic through this weekend. Very
rough seas in excess of 12 ft will propagate into the discussion
waters between 60W and 70W beginning today. The area of 12 ft and
greater seas will spread southeastward on Sat, covering the waters
north of 27N between 43W and 70W by Sat night. The swell will then
start to subside over the discussion waters allowing for seas to
drop below 12 ft Sun night. Seas with this swell will peak near 18
ft over the waters north of about 30N between 50W and 65W on Sat.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a central Atlantic tropical wave is near 41W from 16N
southward, moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 12N between 38W
and 45W. Some gradual development of this system is possible over
the next several days as it continues westward. Gradual development
of this system is possible over the next several days while it
moves generally westward at 15 to 20 kt. Regardless of
development, this system is expected to bring heavy rainfall and
gusty winds to the Windward Islands late this weekend and then
move across the Caribbean Sea much of next week. This wave has a
low chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours.

The axis of a central Atlantic tropical wave is near 52W from 16N
southward. It is moving westward near 15 kt. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 13.5N between
48W and 58W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N16W and extends
southwestward to near 04N35W. Aside from convection noted in the
tropical waves section, scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted from 00N to 08N between 15W and 36W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A surface trough is supporting isolated moderate convection over
the central part of the basin. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds
prevail east of 94W with seas 3 to 5 ft. West of 94W, light winds
and seas 2 to 3 ft prevail.

For the forecast, moderate E to SE winds and slight to moderate
seas are expected over much of the Gulf through late Sat as high
pressure prevails over the southeastern United States.
Occasionally fresh E winds will be possible in the central and
eastern basin. A cold front is slated to enter the northwestern
Gulf on Sun and progress southeastward through the basin into
early next week, and moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds are
expected in the wake of the front Sun into Mon. Generally moderate
NE to SE winds and slight to moderate seas will return over the
Gulf early next week as weak ridging builds over the region.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A frontal trough extends from NW Haiti, to the Yucatan Passage.
Satellite imagery shows clusters of scattered showers and
thunderstorms along and near this boundary. A weak pressure
gradient is across the Caribbean waters supporting gentle to
moderate winds E of 65W, and light to gentle winds elsewhere.
Seas are in the 3-5 ft range E of 64W, and 1-3 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and slight seas are
expected over the Caribbean Sea through Sat. Moderate to fresh E
to NE winds and moderate seas will develop over the eastern
Caribbean Sat night and extend into the central basin on Sun as a
tropical wave moves westward over the region. A second, stronger
tropical wave is slated to move through the central Atlantic this
weekend, entering the eastern Caribbean early next week. Fresh to
strong winds and rough seas will accompany the wave as it passes
over the waters east of the Leeward Islands on Sun, with
increasing winds and building seas developing in the eastern basin
Sun night into early next week. This system has a low chance of
tropical development within the next 48 hours and next 7 days.
Regardless of development, this system is expected to bring heavy
rainfall and gusty winds to the Windward Islands late this weekend
and then move across the Caribbean Sea much of next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for further details
on a large swell event that will begin to impact some sections of
the north-central waters today.

A cold front extends from 31N48W to 19N65W then becomes
a trough to Hispaniola. Fresh to strong SW winds, and seas of
8-13 ft are N of 20N and E of the front to 40W. A reinforcing
front extends from 31N56W to 25N68W then becomes stationary to the
central Bahamas. Fresh to strong NW winds and seas of 8-12 ft are
W of the front. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 8-9 ft are
between the fronts. High pressure dominates the remainder of the
discussion waters N of 20N, anchored by a 1018 mb high near
24N33W. Light to gentle winds are around the high center. Fresh
to strong winds are in the vicinity of the tropical wave near 41W.
Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 5-7
ft range.

For the forecast W of 55W, fresh to strong SW winds, with
localized near-gale force winds, will occur over the central
Atlantic north of 20N and east of 65W through Sat night as a cold
front slowly migrates eastward. A second cold front, extending
from 31N56.5W southwestward through the central Bahamas, will
propagate eastward through this weekend, and fresh to strong N to
NW winds will occur in the wake of the front north of 25N and east
of 75W through Sun morning. Widespread rough seas associated with
the first cold front will prevail north of 20N and east of 60W
today, and will be reinforced by a new N to NW swell through this
weekend, leading to rough seas north of 20N and east of 80W. Very
rough seas over 12 ft can be expected north of 25N between 45W and
55W through Sat night. A second area of very rough seas will move
into the forecast waters east 72W and north of 25N today, with
seas in excess of 12 ft continuing through Sun. Rough seas will
slowly subside from west to east Sun into next week. Elsewhere, a
tropical wave is located over the central tropical Atlantic along
41W. Gradual development of this system is possible over the next
several days while it moves generally westward. Regardless of
development, this system will lead to increasing winds and
building seas along its path. This system has a low chance of
tropical development within the next 48 hours and next 7 days.

$$
KRV