520
AXNT20 KNHC 180420
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Tue Nov 18 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0419 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from near 14N17W, then southwestward
to 10N22W. The ITCZ extends westward from 10N22W to 03.5N48W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 02N
to 09N between the west coast of Africa and 48W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A stationary front extends from near Fort Myers, Florida to
SW Alabama. A surface trough is over the Yucatan Peninsula.
Otherwise, high pressure north of the area dominates the
remainder of the basin. Under this weather pattern, scatterometer
data indicate gentle to moderate E to SE winds over the central
and western Gulf, and mainly light winds elsewhere. Slight seas
dominate most of the Gulf waters.

For the forecast, a stationary front offshore Florida will
dissipate by Tue morning. High pressure will then build southward
into the eastern Gulf, allowing moderate to fresh southeast winds
to establish Tue night through Thu over the central and western
Gulf. Looking ahead, a weak cold front is likely to move into the
northern Gulf by the weekend.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak low of 1013 mb is spinning midway between the Isle of
Youth, Cuba and the Cayman Islands. A surface trough extends from
the low center northward. This low is supporting scattered
moderate convection over the offshore waters of central Cuba.
Gentle to moderate NE winds are noted on the NW quadrant of the
low center. A few showers, with embedded thunderstorms are
affecting the Leeward Islands. Light to gentle winds and seas of 1
to 3 ft exist for the remainder of the western Caribbean. Gentle
to moderate trade winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft dominate the rest of
the basin.

For the forecast, a 1013 mb low pressure between Grand Cayman and
the Isle of Youth will devolve into a surface trough tonight,
move into the Yucatan Channel Tue, then dissipate Wed. High
pressure building from the north will gradually cause tradewinds
to return to normal magnitude by mid-week, with moderate to
locally fresh NE to E winds expected Wed into the weekend. Pulsing
strong winds are possible offshore Colombia during the overnight
and early morning hours.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front has stalled from SE of Bermuda to near West Palm
Beach, Florida. Gentle to moderate SW to W winds are ahead of the
front affecting the waters N of 28.5N between 61W and 70W. Rough
seas, in long period NW swell, follow the front. Scattered
moderate convection is found north of 21.5N between 55W and 61.5W
in association to a surface trough. Farther E, a stationary front
enters the forecast area near 31N36W, and extends SW to near
23N46W. Scattered moderate convection is depicted along this
front. The remainder of the east and central Atlantic are under
the influence of a 1029 mb high pressure located NW of the
Azores. Moderate to fresh trades, and moderate to rough seas
dominate the tropical Atlantic, mainly E of 55W. A surface trough
remains E of the Lesser Antilles along 54W/55W. Scattered
moderate convection is depicted from 09.5N to 12N between 48W and
57W in association with this trough.

For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will weaken
Tue then dissipate Wed. High pressure will build behind the front
between the Carolinas and Bermuda through Fri, supporting gentle
breezes north of 25N and moderate winds and farther south. Seas
will generally be moderate or less, but NW swell will lead to
rough seas N of 28N and E of 70W into Tue night. Looking ahead, SW
winds may increase slightly off northeast Florida late Fri
through Sat ahead of a weak cold front moving through the
southeast U.S.

$$
KRV