195
AXNT20 KNHC 040817
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Tue Nov 4 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis along 84W south of 21N near the Isle
of Youth, Cuba, to across eastern Honduras and eastern Nicaragua,
moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 10.5N to 19N between 82W and 87W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the border of
Mauritania and Senegal at 16N16W and continues southwestward to
near 10N26.5W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 07N42W to
along the coast of French Guiana and Suriname at 06N54W to Guyana
at 07N59.W. Isolated to widely scattered moderate convection is
noted from 02.5N to 09.5N between 23W and 37W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A stationary front from near the Yucatan Channel to just offshore
the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula to the eastern Bay of
Campeche. Scattered showers or rain are possible near the
boundary. Fresh to locally strong NE winds and locally rough seas
linger within about 180-240 nm NW of the front, with moderate to
fresh winds elsewhere along with moderate seas, except slight in
the NW Gulf and NE Gulf coastal waters.

For the forecast, the front will linger today while gradually
becoming diffuse through tonight. Fresh to locally strong winds
and locally rough seas are just NW of the front with moderate to
fresh winds and moderate seas elsewhere behind the front. Winds
and seas N of the boundary will diminish later today, with fresh
NE-E winds briefly developing through the Straits of Florida
tonight as high pressure builds over the SE United States. The
remnants of the front will drift NW as a trough through midweek
before dissipating with ridging building and dominating the basin
by the end of the week into the weekend.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on a tropical wave moving
across the western Caribbean and into Central America at 84W.

The eastern extend of the NE Pacific Ocean monsoon trough extends
across the SW Caribbean enhancing convection, with scattered
moderate to strong noted from 09N to 11N between 75W and 81W.
Fresh to locally strong winds are NW-N of Colombia with locally
rough seas. Mainly moderate winds prevail across the remainder of
the basin, locally fresh across the approach to the Windward
Passage. Seas are 5-7 ft elsewhere in the central Caribbean, 4-6
ft in the eastern Caribbean, and 2-5 ft in the NW Caribbean,
except higher near the Yucatan Channel.

For the forecast, Fresh to locally strong E winds will occur over
the S-central Caribbean, including in the Gulf of Venezuela,
through this morning as a moderate pressure gradient prevails
between low pressure over the south-central basin, a tropical wave
moving through the western Caribbean into Central America, and
ridging to the N. Rough seas will occur near and to the W of the
strongest winds. Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong NE winds will
occur in the lee of Cuba and through the Windward Passage this
evening through Wed as high pressure builds across a stalling
front in the northwestern basin. Looking ahead, mainly moderate
trade winds and moderate seas are expected over the Caribbean by
late Wed night through the rest of the week. Trades may increase
to moderate to fresh in the central and eastern Caribbean this
coming weekend as high pressure N of the area strengthens
somewhat. Meanwhile, seas will build to rough in the tropical N
Atlantic this weekend in northerly swell.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from near Bermuda to near the SE Bahamas and
central Cuba, with a reinforcing front analyzed from 31N73W to
near Cape Canaveral Florida. Fresh to strong NW-N winds are N of
29N and W of the front, and moderate to fresh elsewhere W of the
front, with fresh to near gale-force SW winds N of 28N within 240
nm E of the front and gales just N of 31N. Seas are 7-9 ft N of
29N between 65W and 78W. A dissipating stationary front is
analyzed from 31N31W to 26.5N51W. An associated remnant area of
7-9 ft seas are N of 2N between 32W and 40W. Moderate to locally
fresh trades are S of 24N between 30W and 60W helping to support
seas of 6-8 ft. Winds are mainly moderate or weaker across the
remainder of the tropical Atlantic, with 4-7 ft seas in mixed
swells.

For the forecast west of 55W, the fronts will progress into the
central Atlantic this week, leading to fresh to locally strong S
to SW winds and rough seas ahead of the leading front, generally
north of 28N. In the wake of the front north of 28N, expect fresh
to strong N to NW winds and rough seas through this evening. Rough
seas in N to NW swell will expand southeastward to 25N through
midweek. A new NW swell will reinforce rough seas east of 65W late
this week, reaching 20N early Fri. Elsewhere, moderate to locally
fresh NE winds are expected over much of the waters by midweek as
the front slowly weakens. High pressure will center just N of 31N
this coming weekend.

$$
Lewitsky