463
AXNT20 KNHC 142206
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sat Nov 15 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N15W and continues
southwestward to 06N20W. The ITCZ then continues from 06N20W to
08N31W, where it is broken by cyclonic surface winds around a
pair of surface lows to the north. The ITCZ then resumes at 08N43W
and extends westward to near 07N58W. Scattered moderate
convection is occurring from 11N to 14N between 32W and 40W.

The eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough extends
across the far SW Caribbean. Scattered moderate convection is
occurring in the SW Caribbean generally south of 11N.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A 1024 mb high is analyzed over southeast Louisiana. The pressure
gradient between this high and low pressures to the south of the
basin are resulting in moderate to fresh NE winds and 3-5 ft seas
across near the Yucatan Channel. Moderate or weaker E winds and
seas of 1-3 ft prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE winds across the southeast
Gulf, including the Straits of Florida, will gradually slacken to
light to gentle over the weekend as high pressure across the
Southeast of U.S. moves toward the Florida Keys. Then, a ridge
will continue to dominate the Gulf region supporting a gentle to
moderate anticyclonic flow through early next week. Looking ahead,
southerly return flow will increase to fresh speeds across the
western Gulf on Wed as the pressure gradient tighten some across
the area.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for details on
convection in the SW Caribbean.

A stationary front extends eastern Cuba to central Belize. To the
south, a surface trough parallels the coasts of Honduras,
Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama. A scatterometer pass from 15
UTC indicated fresh to strong NE to E winds off central Colombia,
and a concurrent altimeter satellite pass showed seas to 8 ft in
that area. The same pass also showed fresh NE winds off the south
coast of central Cuba. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds persist
elsewhere with 4 to 6 ft seas.

For the forecast, fresh NE winds in the lee of Cuba, and over the
NW Caribbean in the wake of the front will gradually diminish on
Sat as high pressure to the N weakens. Fresh to locally strong NE
to E winds offshore Colombia and Venezuela tonight will also
weaken as the overall pressure gradient decreases, and a gentle to
moderate trade wind regime becomes established for the weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active along a cold front
extending from 31N47W southwestward to near 23N66W to 21N76W. A
second, reinforcing front reaches from 31N54W to 27N70W to
29N78W. Moderate to fresh NE winds seas are evident south of 23N
and west of 70W, with moderate NW to N winds elsewhere west of the
front first front. Wave heights are 5 to 7 ft west of the first
front.

An upper trough is active from 15N to 25N between 40W and 50W.
This is supporting a pair of 1012 mb low pressure areas near
12N34W and 12N42W. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are
active near these low pressure areas from 11N to 14N between 32W
and 40W.

Over the eastern Atlantic, a stationary front extends from the
northwest coast of Africa near 22N17W to 19N30W to 23N36W. 1018 mb
high pressure is centered north of the front near 26N35W. Gentle
to moderate breezes prevail elsewhere across the discussion area.
Combined seas are 7 to 10 ft in NW to N swell across the Atlantic
from 20N to 31N, east of 50W, and 5 to 7 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, the two frontal boundaries are
forecast to merge on Sat, and the merged front will extends from
near 31N55W to N of Hispaniola by Sat morning before stalling. The
front will then dissipate by the start of next week. Expect fresh
to strong SW to W winds and building seas across the waters N of
29N on Sun, ahead of another frontal boundary forecast to reach
the N part of the forecast region on Mon. Rough seas, in mainly
northerly swell, will periodically impact waters N of 28N through
early next week.

$$
Christensen