898
AXNT20 KNHC 091635
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sun Nov 9 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1635 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of America Gale Warning:
A strong cold front is moving over the NW Gulf this morning. The
front will continue to move quickly SE through the basin and exit
by Mon evening. Strong to near gale-force N to NE winds and rough
seas can be expected behind the front, with gale force winds and
very rough seas offshore of Veracruz Mon morning through Mon
night. Gale force winds are forecast to begin at 10/1200 UTC and
end 11/03 UTC. Peak seas off Veracruz are forecast to build to 15
ft by Mon evening. Otherwise, there is a potential for gust to
gale force winds for the NW Gulf beginning later this morning and
continuing through Mon morning. Conditions will improve basin-
wide by Tue evening. For more information, please see the latest
HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at
website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
information.

Significant Rainfall over Central America:
A shearline is expected to form early on Mon over the NW Caribbean
Sea and Honduras, enhancing moisture convergence across Guatemala,
Belize, Honduras, and Nicaragua. The shearline will move south on
Monday, and will interact with a surface trough off the coasts of
Nicaragua and Costa Rica by Tuesday morning, resulting in
enhanced moisture convergence. A potent cold front will then
arrive in Guatemala, Honduras, and Belize on Tuesday morning,
after which it will become stationary and linger across the region
through Thursday. Significant rainfall over the course of several
days will be possible as a result, and will raise concerns for
life- threatening flash flooding and landslides. This information
was provided by the International Desk at the Weather Prediction
Center. Please refer to your local meteorological service for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon enters the Atlantic waters near 10N15W and continues
southwestward to near 07N18W. The ITCZ extends from 17N18W to
08N32W to 05N49W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring
from 05N to 12N between the coast of Africa and 48W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A cold front extends from Pecan Island, Louisiana to Loyola
Beach, Texas. Isolated moderate convection is found along the
front. An upper level trough is supporting a cluster of moderate
convection from 27N to 29N, and west of 86W. Elsewhere, ridging
extends over the basin, supporting light to gentle winds and
slight seas.

For the forecast, a strong cold front has moved into the NW Gulf
this morning and will race SE through the basin, exiting by Mon
evening. Strong to near gale-force N to NE winds and rough seas
can be expected behind the front, with gale force winds and very
rough seas offshore of Veracruz Mon morning through Mon night.
There is a potential for wind gusts gusts to gale force winds for
the NW Gulf beginning later this morning and continuing through
Mon morning. Conditions will improve basin-wide by Tue evening.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The eastern end of the Pacific Monsoon Trough is supporting
scattered moderate convection, across the offshore waters of
Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama. A surface trough is
moving across the E Caribbean and through the Mona Passage along
with scattered moderate convection. Otherwise, a prevalent ridge
extending across the northern basin continues to tighten the
gradient across the eastern and central Caribbean, thus supporting
the continuation of fresh trades and moderate seas to 8 ft in
these regions. Moderate or weaker trades are ongoing in the NW
basin with slight seas.

For the forecast, locally strong winds and rough seas are
expected in the south- central Caribbean through Mon night. Rough
seas in east swell over the tropical Atlantic waters east of the
Lesser Antilles will gradually subside into Tue morning. A strong
cold front will enter the NW Caribbean waters Mon afternoon,
bringing strong to near gale force N winds and rough seas in its
wake. The front will stall from eastern Cuba to eastern Honduras
late Tue and gradually weaken through Wed evening. Aside from the
strong winds and seas, the front will support the development of
heavy rainfall and thunderstorms over Central America and adjacent
waters through Thu.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered showers and isolated tstms are ongoing offshore NE and
central Florida. A surface trough is supporting isolated showers
north of 29N between 62W and 65W. The remainder of the subtropical
Atlantic is under the influence of the Azores High that is
anchored by a 1030 mb high near 35N36W. East of 55W, winds are
gentle to moderate, with seas 3 to 6 ft. West of 55W and south of
28N, moderate to fresh winds prevail along with moderate seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh S to SW winds
developing offshore of NE Florida this morning will reach fresh to
strong speeds tonight into Mon ahead of a strong cold front that
will push off the SE U.S. tonight. The front will progress SE and
reach from Bermuda to E Cuba Tue afternoon, with the southern
portion of the front stalling from 27N65W to E Cuba Tue evening
into Wed. Strong to gale-force winds and rough to very rough seas
are expected behind the front Mon afternoon into Tue night. Winds
then will gradually diminish through Wed.

$$
KRV