836
AXNT20 KNHC 022212
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Wed Dec 3 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 10N15W and
continues to 07N20W. The ITCZ extends from 07N20W to 08N55W.
Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from
03N-13N and east of 25W. Scattered moderate convection has also
developed from 08N to 11N between 25W and 40W.

GULF OF AMERICA...

A cold front extends from the Florida Big Bend to near Veracruz,
Mexico. A pre-frontal trough extends from SW Florida to just W of
the Florida Keys. Neither feature is producing convection at this
time. Fresh N winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are N of the front,
except locally strong winds and rough seas have developed just
offshore N of Veracruz, Mexico. Ahead of the front, gentle winds
and slight seas dominate.

For the forecast, the cold front will move southward, reaching
the south-central Gulf by Wed morning, and marine conditions N of
the front will improve tonight. The front will stall and lift
northward by late Wed, as another low pressure system forms over
South Texas and the NW Gulf. Looking ahead, another cold front
will enter the NW waters on Thu, and extend from SE Louisiana to
near Tampico, Mexico Fri morning, then stall and lift north toward
the northern Gulf on Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The subtropical ridge to the north has been disrupted by a trough
N of N of Puerto Rico, creating a weak pressure gradient over the
basin and leading to mainly gentle winds and slight seas over the
basin. Convection is confined to offshore Panama to the S of 11N,
where the eastern portion of the NE Pacific monsoon trough
resides.

For the forecast, winds will continue to diminish across the
basin tonight and Wed as the surface trough progresses westward
just N of the basin, disrupting the influence of the subtropical
ridge. However, winds will freshen up again late this week as the
high pressure builds in north of the area. Another surface trough,
located near 60W, will move across the Windward Islands into the
eastern Caribbean tonight into Wed. Fresh to locally strong winds
and locally rough seas follow this trough. The associated moisture
will also bring some shower activity. Meanwhile, moderate to
locally rough seas, in NE swell, will persist across the NE
Caribbean passages through the week and into the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough just E of the Lesser Antilles is inducing
scattered moderate convection from 10N to 15N between 57W and 60W.
A deep layer trough, with a surface reflection along 60W N of 25N,
is inducing a broad area of scattered moderate convection from 20N
to 30N between 52W and 60W. Yet another surface trough that
extends from 19N66W to 25N64W is no longer producing any
convection. To the W of these features, W of 60W, light to gentle
winds and slight to moderate seas dominate until N of the Bahamas
and W of 70W, where SW winds have increased to fresh to strong
ahead of a cold front that is approaching the east coast of the
United States. Seas have increased to 6 to 9 ft in these region.

For waters to the E of 60W, widespread fresh W winds dominate the
basin, with seas of 7 to 10 ft. Areas of strong winds are present
in the far eastern Atlantic in the vicinity of the Canary Islands
and the Cabo Verde Islands as well has waters between those island
chains and Africa.

For the forecast west of 55W, expect fresh to strong southerly
winds and building seas across the area north of 29N and west of
72W ahead of a cold front that will reach the waters off the
northeast Florida coast early this evening. The front will extend
from near Bermuda to South Florida on Wed morning, and from 31N70W
to the Straits of Florida by Thu morning. Meanwhile, fresh to
strong easterly winds and rough seas follow a surface trough
currently located just N of Puerto Rico. The trough will continue
to move westward passing N of Hispaniola Wed and Thu. Winds and
seas in the wake of the trough are gradually diminishing.

$$
Konarik