145
AXNT20 KNHC 251641
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Tue Nov 25 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1641 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 09N13W and continues
to 08N16W. The ITCZ extends from 08N16W to 07N52W. Scattered
moderate convection is present from 05N to 12N between 16W and
27W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weak stationary front is nearing the Texas coast and the
pressure gradient between this feature and high pressure off New
England support gentle to moderate SE-S winds and moderate seas
over much of the Gulf waters. No significant convection is noted
in the basin.

For the forecast, the aforementioned stationary front will drift
into the NW Gulf later today. Moderate to fresh southerly winds
will decrease to gentle to moderate later today as high pressure
off New England departs eastward. A stronger reinforcing cold
front will overtake the aforementioned weak front early Wed as it
moves into the NW Gulf waters. The cold front will then sweep to
the southeast of the basin by Thu night into Fri, followed by
fresh to strong northeast winds and building seas into the
weekend. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may accompany the
frontal boundary. Moderate to fresh return flow under strong high
pressure is forecast Sat.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure north of the area continues to force fresh to
strong easterly winds and rough seas in the central Caribbean. The
strongest winds of locally near-gale force, according to the
latest ASCAT, and highest seas are occurring off NW Colombia.
Meanwhile, moderate to locally fresh and moderate seas prevail
elsewhere in the basin. Divergence aloft is supporting scattered
showers the souther Caribbean.

For the forecast, the tight pressure gradient between high
pressure north of the basin and lower pressures over NW Colombia
will sustain fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough seas
in the central Caribbean through early Fri. The strongest winds of
25 to 30 kt, and highest seas peaking near 12 ft are expected
offshore Colombia mainly at night. In the remainder of the basin,
the weather pattern will support moderate to fresh winds along
with moderate seas through early Fri. Looking ahead, a cold front
will enter the NW Caribbean on Fri, followed by strong winds and
rough seas through Fri night. The front may stall and wash out
near the NW Caribbean by Sat.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak cold front extends from near 31N54W to near 28N72W, where
it becomes a stationary front that extends to near Cape Canaveral,
FL. No significant convection is noted near the front. Moderate
to locally fresh N to NE winds and seas of 4-7 ft follow these
fronts. Farther east, a weak 1015 mb low pressure north of the
area is near 32N45W. A surface trough extends from this low to
22N48W. Scattered moderate convection is present north of 22N
between 42W and 48W. In the east Atlantic, a surface trough is
analyzed from 29N21W to 27N23W to 20N27W. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are ongoing between the trough axis and the
west coast of Africa. The latest scatterometer satellite data
indicates moderate NW winds south of the low, driven by the
pressure gradient between the trough and high pressure to the
north.

Elsewhere across the Atlantic away from the aforementioned
features, moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas prevail
across the vast majority of the basin. The exceptions are two
regions, one north of 20N between 44W and 60W, and the other in
the vicinity of the Canary Islands, where gentle to moderate
trades and seas of 2-5 ft prevail due to weaker pressure gradients
in these areas.

For the forecast west of 55W, a weak cold front extends from
31N54W to 28N71W, with the tail end as a dissipating stationary
front to near Cape Canaveral, Florida. The eastern portion of the
front will continue eastward and reach from 28N55W to 27N65W by
tonight, while the western portion dissipates. High pressure
located off New England will shift eastward following the front,
supporting moderate to fresh northeast to east winds and moderate
seas over the region, locally rough near 31N55W. Looking ahead,
winds and seas will diminish west of 70W by Wed, ahead of a
stronger cold front expected to move off the northeast Florida
coast Wed night. The front will reach from Bermuda to the Straits
of Florida by early Fri, followed by fresh to strong NW winds and
building seas through Fri night. Looking ahead, a tightened
pressure gradient in the wake of the front is forecast to bring
increasing winds and building seas across much of the forecast
area during the upcoming weekend.


$$
KRV