418
FXUS61 KBGM 171858
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
158 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Lake effect snow showers will continue through tonight for parts
of Central New York, before ending by Tuesday afternoon. A weak
area of low pressure passes by to the south Tuesday night,
which may bring some light snow to Northeast Pennsylvania. High
pressure will then result in dry conditions Wednesday through
Thursday, before another system brings the next chance for rain
for the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A continued cold northwesterly flow (850mb temperatures around -9C)
on the backside of an area of low pressure located over the
Canadian Maritimes, combined with the Georgian Bay connection
continues to bring lake effect snow showers to parts of Central
NY this afternoon. The flow has been slowly shifting to more
west-northwesterly, which has allowed for the snow showers to
gradually shift to the north/towards the NY Thruway corridor and
away from the Twin Tiers/southern Finger Lakes. This will set
the stage for another round of steady lake effect snow for areas
along and just south of the NY Thruway corridor the remainder
of today through tonight.

Orographic lift from the terrain will allow for localized
higher snow accumulations. In general, additional snow
accumulations for central Onondaga county through much of
Madison county will range between 2 and 5 inches, but localized
additional amounts of 6 to 7 inches in those upslope areas
cannot be completely ruled out. Meanwhile areas immediately
surrounding this band of lake effect snow will likely only
receive 1-2 inches of snow, with amounts quickly becoming less
than a half inch only a few miles away. Elsewhere, while a few
flurries cannot be ruled out, mainly precipitation-free weather
is expected through tonight, with even some partial clearing
across Northeast PA. Lows are expected to be in the mid 20s to
lower 30s.

In terms of headlines, we were able to cancel the Winter Weather
Advisory for Tompkins and northern Oneida counties with this
early afternoon forecast package, but the Winter Weather
Advisory remains in effect until 10AM Tuesday for Onondaga,
Madison, Cortland, Chenango, and southern Cayuga counties. With
the lake effect snow showers still shifting northward, it is
likely that Cortland, Chenango, and southern Cayuga counties
will be also be able to be canceled early and this will be re-
evaluated with our upcoming forecast updates.

Any remaining lake effect snow showers will end by late Tuesday
morning or early Tuesday afternoon as the flow becomes westerly
and weak high pressure briefly moves in. Temperatures are
expected to be a bit milder (but still below normal) with highs
in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Skies will remain mostly cloudy,
but there may be a few breaks of sun at times.

A quick-moving weak area of low pressure is expected to pass by
to our south Tuesday night. It will be a close call regarding if
the precipitation shield makes it far enough north to clip
Northeast PA, or if it will all remain south of our area. If
precipitation is able to overcome the dry air and make it into
Northeast PA, light snow will be possible, perhaps mixing with
rain in the Wyoming Valley. That being said, PoPs remain on the
low-side and the odds are greater that it remains snow-free
during this timeframe. Lows are expected to be in the lower 20s
to lower 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The upper level flow pattern will become more zonal Wednesday
through Thursday and surface high pressure will build in. As a
result, conditions look to be precipitation-free during this
timeframe. In fact, Wednesday will likely be partly to mostly
sunny for much of the area, which will be a welcome change after
a prolonged cloudy period of weather. The clouds will return on
Thursday though, ahead of the next system. Highs on Wednesday
and Thursday are expected to be in the 40s for most of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A frontal system is expected to move through the area Thursday
night through Friday, which is expected to bring the next chance
for rain showers to the area. Temperatures should be warm enough
for precipitation to be mostly rain, with perhaps a brief wintry
mix at the onset of precipitation. One thing to note though;
latest guidance is starting to trend drier for this period,
especially the ECMWF. Right now, stuck with the NBM for PoPs,
but if this drier trend continues, PoPs will need to be reduced
with future forecast packages.

Forecast uncertainty is high for the weekend into early next
week with it being uncertain regarding if some lake effect
precipitation or showers from a few passing shortwaves occur,
or if ridging and surface high pressure may keep conditions
mainly dry. Either way, it looks like there will be a gradual
warming trend in temperatures with some areas possibly reaching
the lower 50s by Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions across the forecast terminals currently as the
lake effect snow intensity has subsided this afternoon. However,
we are still anticipating another primary, more restrictive
band to redevelop and focus into KSYR between 20Z this afternoon
and 08Z tonight, with 1-2 mile visibility restrictions likely.
All other terminals should remain at VFR through the rest of the
period. KSYR may remain MVFR later tonight and early Tue before
possibly going to VFR by 15Z.

Winds will still remain gusty out of the west-northwest in this
pattern, 20-25 kts before diminishing after 01Z this evening.
Winds will back slightly more to the west tonight and weaken
only slightly before veering back to the WNW again after 14Z
Tuesday.

Outlook...

Tuesday afternoon through Thursday...Mainly VFR, except brief
restrictions possible KAVP Tuesday night as a weak disturbance
passes with a small chance of snow showers.

Thursday night through Saturday...Rain showers likely during
the day and possibly a wintry mix overnight with associated
restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for NYZ017-018-
     036-044-045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJG
NEAR TERM...BJG
SHORT TERM...BJG
LONG TERM...BJG
AVIATION...BJT/MDP