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000
FXUS61 KBGM 181809
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
Issued by National Weather Service Albany NY
209 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cloudy and cool conditions continue east of I-81 today with
warmer and partial sunshine west. Drier yet cloudy tonight into
Friday morning before another cold front ushers in more showers
Friday afternoon and night. We turn breezy and cooler for the
weekend with some rain or even snow showers possible on
Saturday. A dry stretch finally ensues Sunday through Tuesday
with cool temperatures trending milder through the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
130 PM Update:

Our warm front remains straddled near I-81 and clouds have
broken for some sun over the Finger Lakes and western areas of
the Southern Tier which have entered into the warm sector.
Temperatures have responded nicely to the warmer air mass
rising into the upper 50s to even low 60s. However, areas in
the Catskills, NE PA, and Mohawk Valley, which remain on the
east side of the front, continue to be socked in clouds thanks
to high pressure building into northern New England resulting in
cold air damming. The strong low-level inversion seen the 12
UTC ALY sounding is indicative of a cold air wedged lodged near
the sfc and temperatures will continue to struggle to warm our
of 40s, especially as areas of drizzle reinforce the cool
temperatures. The NYS mesonet temperature maps highlight the
noticeably different air masses east and west of I-81 nicely.

Guidance suggests that light showers/drizzle in the Catskills
and Mohawk Valley should gradually dissipate this afternoon but
showers have developed along the stalled warm front near the
I-81 corridor as increased sun and weak instability have generated
showers near the wind shift boundary.

Otherwise, still expecting a warm spring day for the Finger
Lakes with high temperatures reaching into the mid-60s as breaks
of sun combine with a swath of mild 850hPa isotherms ranging
+6C to +6.5C noses into this region. Temperatures trend
downwards heading east with the Catskills barely reaching into
the low 50s. NE PA including the the Susquehanna River Valley
will struggle to break for sun with highs only reaching into
the upper 40s to low 50s. The surrounding higher terrain in NE
PA will coolest where overcast skies prevent much warmer beyond
the mid-40s.

Heading into tonight, any partial clearing early on will quickly
fade behind cloudy skies as Canadian high pressure continues to
build into northern New England. Despite the increased low-level
moisture, guidance maintains a mainly dry forecast tonight as
our washed-out warm front lifts eastward and upper level ridging
and mid-level dry air build into further into the Northeast.
However, some pockets of drizzle may linger, especially in NE
PA and the Catskills, at least through Midnight as low-level
southeast flow upslopes the terrain. Otherwise, we will not see
a large diurnal change tonight given clouds. Overnight
temperatures only cooling into the mid to upper 30s in the
Catskills, Mohawk Valley and NE PA with low to mid 40s in the
Southern Tier, Fingers Lakes, and towards Syracuse.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
300 AM Update...

Rain showers remain across the region Friday evening as the weak
cold front pushes through the region. Most showers should be out
of the region by midnight, but a few lingering showers could
remain over the Catskills and Poconos during the overnight
hours as high pressure builds in from the west. Temperatures
will fall into the upper 30s to low 40s behind the departing
front.

High pressure doesn`t remain long as another trough swings into
the region Saturday. Overall synoptic moisture available for
this trough to interact with will be wanting, but moisture off
the lakes combined with sufficient lift from the trough and the
left exit region of a jet streak sitting over our region should
allow rain showers to develop across CNY during the afternoon
hours. We will still be under a cool airmass so temperatures
will climb into the low to mid 50s. WNW winds will also pick up
during the afternoon hours, with sustained values at 15-20mph,
gusting to 30mph.

Another surface high pressure system will build into the region
for the overnight hours, bringing calm conditons back to the
region. Because of the high pressure and NW flow continuing to
advect in a cool Canadian airmass, overnight temps will fall
into the low to mid 30s across the region.

High pressure remains over the region through Sunday night,
keeping conditions calm. Highs will again reach the low to mid
50s and overnight lows will be in the low to mid 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
325 AM Update...

High pressure dominates the weather pattern through Tuesday
morning as the center of the system will slide across the
eastern US, south of our region. This brings mostly westerly
flow that will advect in slightly warmer air from the midwest,
bringing temps into the upper 50s to mid 60s for the beginning
of the week.

The arrival of the next low pressure system has been delayed a
bit with the latest model guidance. Rain showers now are
forecast to move into the area Tuesday night and linger through
Wednesday evening. The strength and timing of the cold front
expected to accompany this low pressure system is still
uncertain, so NBM guidance was used here, bringing temps Wed
into the upper 40s to low 50s during the day and fall into the
low 30s at night.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Showers continue to crawl across the region this afternoon in
response to low pressure encroaching upon the region from the west.
MVFR to IFR conditions prevail across the TAF sites as a result with
low clouds socked in across the region.

Throughout the rest of the afternoon and into this evening, showers
will gradually decrease, becoming scattered to spotty in nature.
However, MVFR to IFR ceilings will persist at all terminals with the
exception of KSYR through the remainder of the 18z TAF cycle. KSYR
should, based on latest guidance, trend towards VFR ceilings by the
last 8-10 hours of the 18z TAF period.

Showers crossing through terminal domains throughout the morning and
early afternoon thus far have dropped visibility into the MVFR to
IFR thresholds. However, as showers become lighter and more
scattered throughout the afternoon and evening, VFR visibility
should be maintained even with passing precipitation. Of course,
MVFR visibility can`t be ruled out with embedded, heavier showers
but since this would be a fairly localized, low probability, kept
this out of the TAFs at this time.

Winds throughout the 18z TAF period will be light and variable to
start, becoming breezy out of the southeast by the end of the
period. Sustained speeds this afternoon and tonight will range from
2-5 kt, increasing to 10-12 kt by tomorrow morning with gusts up to
about 19-21 kt.

Outlook...

Friday...Lingering restrictions in the morning; perhaps a brief
VFR window, then more restrictions as rain showers arrive in
the afternoon and evening.

Saturday...Mainly VFR expected. Occasional MVFR CIGs possible
for CNY terminals in the afternoon.

Sunday...VFR expected.

Monday...VFR expected.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...