998
FXUS61 KBGM 301841
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
241 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front is moving through this afternoon sparking off
scattered showers and thunderstorms and a few of which could
become severe with damaging wind gust being the main concern.
Tomorrow will be about 10 degrees cooler than today.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
205 PM update...

With plentiful sunshine this morning into the early afternoon,
1000 to 1500 J/kg of surface based CAPE has developed across the
Finger Lakes down into NEPA. Wind shear is weakening as the
stronger 500 mb winds move off to the east but still there is 30
knots of 0-6 km shear through the rest of the afternoon. With a
shortwave trough moving in, falling heights and weak cold air
advection have weakened the cap with storms developing. Storms
will likely grow upscale in the next few hours with the
potential for a few microburst and up to quarter size hail.
Heavy rainfall is possible with these storms as they grow
upscale and become more like an MCS. Some of the high res models
have stripes of 1 to 2 inches with these storms through the
evening so after the severe threat is over, a flash flood risk
takes over. The trough axis moves east of the region after
midnight with chances of precipitation dwindling quickly. With
the precipitation, fog could develop if the clouds can clear
before sunrise tomorrow.

Tomorrow will have slightly cooler aloft so temperatures will be
about 10 degrees cooler than today but still above average. A
subsidence inversion in place will keep the atmosphere stable
but some drizzle is possible at high elevations of the Catskills
and Poconos good boundary layer moisture flows over the summits
and cools adiabatically.

Better chance of fog on Wednesday night as surface high pressure
builds in with winds calming down and good radiational cooling.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
325 AM Update...

The short term will be dominated by ridging with temperatures
above average through the period. Forecast soundings continue to
show dry air aloft and a capping inversion that should limit and
showers and thunderstorms. Kept just slight chance for showers
in the Catskills Thursday afternoon, as terrain could help
break the capping in place.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
330 AM Update...

Ridging should hold until the weekend and then the pattern will
become more active with zonal flow aloft. This will allow for
several weak perturbations to push through from Saturday into
the beginning of next week. Shower chances start to increase on
Saturday as frontal boundary slowly progresses from west to
east across the region. High pressure will be stationed over the
Atlantic and the front will have a hard time progressing
eastward, so rainshowers will likely linger right through
Sunday. Temperatures will be above normal on Friday, however
with the rainshowers expected this weekend, we will see
temperatures return back to normal with highs in the low 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Storms have developed across the Southern Tier into NEPA with
ELM, BGM, ITH, and AVP likely seeing a few thunderstorms pass
close to the terminals through 22Z. Rain will persist with MVFR
and IFR cigs at all terminals through about 6Z before rain ends
and begins to clear into the morning hours. VFR conditions are
expected tomorrow at all terminals by 15Z.

Outlook...

Wednesday...Lingering morning clouds and restrictions possible,
becoming VFR in the afternoon.

Thursday...VFR Likely.

Friday..Mainly VFR, but late day showers/t`storms possible.

Saturday into Sunday...Restrictions possible in showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJG
NEAR TERM...AJG
SHORT TERM...AJG/MPK
LONG TERM...AJG/MPK
AVIATION...AJG