082
FXUS61 KBGM 160019
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
719 PM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Very cold once again tonight with clouds giving way to clearing
overnight. Warmer air slowly returns to the region starting
tomorrow with above freezing temperatures expected by Wednesday
afternoon. A strong front passing through Thursday night into
Friday brings rain that can mix with or end as a little snow and
gusty winds.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Light lake effect snow is persisting with the cold northwest
flow early this afternoon. Radar and water vapor imagery shows a
decent shortwave moving through the Great Lakes with widespread
light snowfall along it. This shortwave will move in late this
afternoon and evening, with low level flow shifting from the
current Northwest flow to West flow helping lift the lake effect
snow band north into the Tug Hill. The shortwave itself will
have enough lift to bring additional light snowfall to much of
NY into Northeastern PA. Observed precipitation amounts in the
upstream shortwave have been only a few hundredths of an inch.
With the light QPF expected, snowfall accumulations this
afternoon and evening were kept under a half inch for higher
elevations and a trace for lower elevations.

Behind this shortwave tomorrow, low and mid level ridging
builds in. With the southwest flow, warmer air will slowly make
its way back into the region. Tuesday is still on the cooler
side as the air mass in the central US is cold but by Tuesday
night, 850 temperatures will rise above average for the first
time in a while.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Wednesday into Thursday, a ridge strengthens over the Northeast
while a trough digs into the central plains. Trends in the
models have been towards a more amplified trough that starts to
become negatively tilted as it moves into the Great Lakes
region. Strengthening SW flow will help boost temperatures into
the upper 30s and 40s for Wednesday into Thursday. As the 850
winds increase to over 50 knots Thursday, winds have been
increased by mixing in some of the NBM 90th percentile. Right
now, low level stability in forecast soundings should limit the
max gusts to under advisory criteria though in the downslope
regions of the Finger Lakes with the SW flow, a few gusts to 40+
are possible.

As the trough moves through the Great Lakes Thursday into
Thursday night, a surface low deepens down into the mid to low
980 mb range. A strong cold front associated with the low moves
in late Thursday night with good warm air advection just ahead
of it. It`s likely that the temperatures overnight Thursday may
be warmer than the temperatures during the day, potentially
making a run for the upper 40s and even a few 50s in downsloping
areas. Strong forcing along the front may lead to a squall line
developing with strong wind gust along it as well as a brief
period of heavier precipitation.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The long term looks to start off cold with the frontal passage
on Thursday night along with some lake effect snowfall.
Ensembles and deterministic models show a fairly brief period of
NW flow behind the front, with mid level ridging building in by
Friday night into early Saturday. Lake effect snow that does
occur looks to be fairly transient as well with low level flow
going from mostly northerly to westerly ahead of the building
ridge. Looking at 250 mb mean winds into the weekend and early
next week, flow becomes fairly zonal with the jet stream
centered over NY and PA. That means the flow will be fast, with
frequent shortwaves leading to unpredictability this far out.
The long term also is not looking as cold as the lowest
temperature anomalies retreat into the NW territories and Alaska
into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
An upper-level disturbance moving through the region will lead
to a deck of mostly mid-to-high clouds this evening at all
terminals. The clouds are expected to give way to clearing late
tonight and VFR conditions are expected to persist through the
TAF period tomorrow. Winds are expected to remain southwesterly
through much of the forecast period before starting to turn more
south-southeasterly late, especially around RME, SYR and ITH.

Model soundings do suggest that there can be some southwesterly
LLWS that develops near or just after the end of the TAF
heading into Tuesday evening.


Outlook...

Tuesday evening through early Wednesday.. Mainly VFR; possible
LLWS.

Wednesday...MVFR Ceilings possible across portions of Central NY.

Wednesday Night and Thursday...Mainly VFR expected over the area.

Thursday Night into Friday...Strong frontal passage with rain
showers, possibly mixing with or ending as snow showers along
with associated restrictions. LLWS likely Thursday into Thursday
night.

Saturday...Snow showers possible and associated restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJG/DK
NEAR TERM...AJG
SHORT TERM...AJG
LONG TERM...AJG
AVIATION...DK/MPK