247
FXUS61 KBGM 091033
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
633 AM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry conditions will persist through the first half of the weekend.
Areas of frost and sub-freezing temperatures are expected Thursday
night into Friday morning. A coastal system will bring the next
chances for rain during the second half of the weekend and into
early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Lake clouds are keeping areas west of I-81 slightly warmer than
originally forecasted. Still, winds have become calmer and
temperatures are still expected to fall into the 30s prior to
sunrise, so no changes were needed to the current Freeze Warning and
Frost Advisories. Despite plenty of sunshine and dry conditions, a
cool airmass overhead will limit temperatures to the 50s today.
Overnight, clear skies and light winds will set up the perfect
conditions for efficient radiational cooling. The previous forecast
was preserved for the nighttime temperatures as lows in the 20s and
low 30s are expected, which is lower than most guidance. The Freeze
Watch was upgraded to a Warning. Meanwhile, a Frost Advisory was
issued for Yates, Seneca, and S. Cayuga Counties where conditions
will be more mild.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The center of high pressure will move east on Friday but will remain
in control to keep conditions dry through at least the start of the
weekend. Southerly flow returns and will kick off a warming trend
this period with highs on Friday in the upper 50s to low 60s. Friday
night will be slightly warmer as well with temps falling into the
30s and low 40s. There will be some areas where patchy frost will be
possible and some advisories may be needed as we reach the end of
the growing season for most of the region.

Saturday will be even warmer yet as temperatures climb back into the
60s across the region. Skies will start out mostly sunny in the
morning but cloud cover increases ahead of an approaching coastal
system. This system will interact with an upper low that drops south
over the Great Lakes. With an increase of moisture being advected
into the region, some showers may move into the region overnight,
though chances look better in the long term period.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Recent model runs have come into better agreement with the
aforementioned coastal low system with rain continuing to move
into the region Sunday as the low drifts northward. Rain becomes
a bit more widespread late Sunday and will continue through at
least Monday. A ridge of high pressure then begins to move into
the region as the low drifts out to sea on Tuesday. Of course,
there remains some uncertainty with this system, mainly with how
long rain sticks around. Wraparound moisture may be enough to
keep some lingering showers around into at least Tuesday. The
midweek period is trending drier though a couple outlier
solutions keep conditions rainy so low chance PoPs remain in the
forecast. Despite the uncertainties, this system will be our
next chance for beneficial rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours at all terminals.
ELM has a small chance at some fog tonight with the high
pressure in place and calm winds but given how dry it could get
today, confidence is too low to include at this time. High
pressure builds in tomorrow with calming winds and clear skies.

Outlook...

Thursday night through Sunday...Mainly VFR; areas of morning
low clouds/valley fog.

Monday...Watching a coastal low with showers possible and
associated restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT Friday for
     PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
     Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for PAZ038>040.
NY...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for NYZ009.
     Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT Friday for
     NYZ009-018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
     Frost Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT Friday for
     NYZ015>017.
     Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NYZ018-022>025-
     036-037-044>046-055>057-062.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BTL
NEAR TERM...BJG/BTL
SHORT TERM...BTL
LONG TERM...BTL
AVIATION...AJG