495
FXUS61 KBGM 142344
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
644 PM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure building in will lead to a brief reprieve from
the active pattern with dry weather expected into tomorrow
morning. A brief warmup tomorrow will be accompanied with rain
in the afternoon into tomorrow night. A strong cold front moving
through will lead to the return of lake effect snow showers for
the end of the weekend and early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure building in from the southwest and weak
ridging aloft will bring an end to the scattered lake effect
rain and wet snow showers around the area by early this evening.
Dry conditions are expected tonight through tomorrow morning
with lows tonight mainly in the mid 20s to the lower 30s. Lows
can reach the upper teens though toward the Tug Hill. The
reprieve from the wet weather will be brief as rain begins to
overspread the area from the west tomorrow afternoon ahead of
an approaching warm front. The warm front is expected to move
through by late afternoon or early evening, setting up a non-
diurnal temperature curve. This combined with the ridging aloft
will lead to a surge of milder air as high temperatures range
from the mid 40s to the mid 50s later in the day. Some places in
the eastern Catskills and toward the Tug Hill will actually
have high temperatures occurring during the evening hours prior
to a strong cold front being dragged across the area as a
surface low passes by just to the north of the CWA en route to
New England. With the area being squarely in the warm sector
tomorrow afternoon and evening, there is a little bit of
instability aloft with MUCAPE around 200-400 J/kg along with
strong shear, so a rumble or two of thunder can`t be ruled out,
especially west of I-81.

By the late evening hours Saturday night, the steadier rainfall
is expected to move off to the east, but lake enhanced showers
are expected to continue as the cold front pushes through
overnight and a northwesterly flow sets back up. Lows range from
the mid 30s to the mid 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As colder Canadian air filters in from the northwest, 850mb
temperatures fall from -3 to -4C Sunday morning to around -8C by
early evening. This will lead to mix of rain and snow showers
changing over to all lake effect snow. Model guidance does show
a multi-lake band connection setting up Sunday night which could
lead to a steadier, more intense band of snow into Monday.
While there remains some uncertainty as where the bands of snow
set up, one area that seems to be highlighted is near the
northern Finger Lakes and into the higher terrain south of the
NYS Thruway in Onondaga and Madison counties, so we`ll be
keeping a close eye on this. If we wind up with a steadier band
of snow, then snowfall rates may be able to overcome high
temperatures in the mid to upper 30s across CNY to allow for
some accumulation beyond just elevated surfaces during the
daytime. Some of the valley areas in NE PA will reach the low
and mid 40s. Lows Sunday and Monday night are expected to be in
the 20s to around 30 degrees.

Gusty winds are also expected to develop on Sunday with a
strengthening pressure gradient over the region. This can lead
to wind gusts peaking between 30 and 40 mph, especially during
the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Lake effect snow bands are expected to persist into Tuesday
before lifting off to the north. High pressure and upper level
ridging is expected to build in for midweek leading to the
return of quieter weather and some slight moderation in
temperatures into Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all of our TAF sites
through the rest of the evening and overnight period. There will
be a mix of mid level (035-080 ft agl) and high level (090-150
ft agl) sct to bkn clouds over the region through the overnight.
VFR conditions persist areawide Saturday morning and midday. By
Saturday afternoon rain showers/light rain begins to move into
the area from west to east, along with lowering CIGs...down to
MVFR and MVFR Fuel Alt between about 20-23z Saturday.

Winds will be light west-northwest this evening and into the
overnight, before switching to east-southeast under 5 kts toward
daybreak. Southerly winds continue Saturday, increasing between
7-15 kts by afternoon with a few gusts to 20 kts possible. LLWS
develops at most taf sites between 21-23z Saturday evening.

Outlook...

Saturday night...Periods of rain, especially in the evening with
conditions likely falling to IFR across the area. LLWS likely in
the evening, then fading after midnight/ predawn.


Sunday...Rain and snow showers likely along with associated
restrictions.

Monday...Scattered rain/snow showers possible along with
associated restrictions.

Tuesday...Lingering lake effect rain/snow showers with
restrictions still possible; especially CNY terminals.

Wednesday...Mainly VFR expected.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DK
NEAR TERM...DK
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...MJM/MWG