


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
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236 FXUS61 KBGM 170547 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY Issued by National Weather Service State College PA 147 AM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build into the region and keep it dry through Saturday. A mature storm system moving in from the west will cause our next chance of showers Saturday night. Sunday looks wet as a warm front, then a cold front pass, generating several rounds of showers and a few thunderstorms. Another cold front will arrive by the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... As high pressure builds in, the pressure gradient will slacken and we should also stratify/stabilize overnight. That will slacken the wind. The clear skies and light/no wind will allow temps to dip close to freezing, but mainly in the mid 30s in the parts of the CWA which have not yet had a freeze. That all means frost should form. We have added the northern 4 zones to the going frost advisory for the southern couple for the overnight hours. Patchy fog is also possible. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... After the frost melts, we should have bright sunshine and light wind (less than 10 MPH, at least). Very dry air (30-something dewpoints) will make it feel a little chilly, but temps should get ~5F warmer than Thurs, maxing out in the 50s for most and near 60F in the southern valleys. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... The high pressure area overhead will slide slowly to the east on Saturday. As moisture and warmer air aloft stream north and east out of the OH valley, a couple of very light showers/sprinkles could fall over the NE half of the CWA Sat night. But, the PoPs increase on Sun aftn and peak Sun night and early Monday. Precip totals out that far are not a high certainty, but amounts around 0.50" look most likely at this point. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A very dry air mass over CNY/NEPA will lead to a high likelihood of VFR/unrestricted conditions throughout the valid TAF period. One small fly in the ointment could be early Friday morning valley fog in the vicinity of KELM. However, we feel the probability of this is relatively low (20-30%), given the dry nature of the air mass, lack of recent rainfall and associated ground-level moisture, and well mixed conditions in the upper part of the boundary layer. A locally developed analog tool reveals only a small minority of fog cases (3/15) in the 06-12z period, given similar wind, moisture, and temperature profiles to what is expected. After diminishing/light surface flow tonight, winds should increase somewhat to 5-8 kt out of the NW on Friday, then become light and variable again Friday night as midlevel clouds increase with the approach of a warm front. Outlook... Saturday...Mainly VFR. Sunday and Monday...MVFR or IFR Restrictions likely (greater than 70 pct chance) with a front moving through, especially later in the day Sunday into Monday. Tuesday...A few MVFR/IFR restrictions possible (40-50 pct) during the day Tuesday. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for PAZ044-047. NY...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NYZ015>018. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CTP NEAR TERM...CTP SHORT TERM...CTP LONG TERM...CTP AVIATION...CTP