036
FXUS61 KBGM 161923
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
Issued by National Weather Service State College PA
323 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build into the region and keep it dry through
Saturday. A mature storm system moving in from the west will
cause our next chance of showers Saturday night. Sunday looks
wet as a warm front, then a cold front pass, generating several
rounds of showers and a few thunderstorms. Another cold front
will arrive by the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
As high pressure builds in, the pressure gradient will slacken
and we should also stratify/stabilize overnight. That will
slacken the wind. The clear skies and light/no wind will allow
temps to dip close to freezing, but mainly in the mid 30s in
the parts of the CWA which have not yet had a freeze. That all
means frost should form. We have added the northern 4 zones to
the going frost advisory for the southern couple for the
overnight hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
After the frost melts, we should have bright sunshine and light
wind (less than 10 MPH, at least). Very dry air (30-something
dewpoints) will make it feel a little chilly, but temps should
get ~5F warmer than Thurs, maxing out in the 50s for most and
near 60F in the southern valleys.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The high pressure area overhead will slide slowly to the east on
Saturday. As moisture and warmer air aloft stream north and
east out of the OH valley, a couple of very light
showers/sprinkles could fall over the NE half of the CWA Sat
night. But, the PoPs increase on Sun aftn and peak Sun night and
early Monday. A rather mature storm system will move through
then, and could make some thunder, too. Precip totals out that
far are not a high certainty, but 0.5-0.75" looks like a good
first guess at this point.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High amplitude ridge building across the Northeast today will
remain the dominant feature for the next 24 hours and bring with
it very dry conditions. VFR conditions will prevail at all
forecast terminals, with the exception of ELM where a 10-15 pct
of IFR valley fog in and around the site exists late tonight and
Friday morning.

There were locations of valley fog along the Susquehanna and
Chemung River this morning, but it did not make it near the ELM
airport.

Should be similar conditions Fri morning. Once the fog lifts
and mixes out, VFR conditions will persist.

Winds are expected to be gusty out of the N/NW this afternoon
with gusts as high as 20-25 kts. Winds will mostly diminish to 6
kt or less after 00Z this evening and completely decouple at
some locations tonight... becoming calm. Then, after 14Z Friday,
winds will increase again up to 8 to 12 kt out of the north
before 18Z.

Outlook...

Friday afternoon through Saturday...Mainly VFR. Chance of
valley fog in the morning.

Sunday and Monday...MVFR or IFR Restrictions likely (greater
than 70 pct chance) with a front moving through, especially
later in the day Sunday into Monday.

Tuesday...A few MVFR/IFR restrictions possible (40-50 pct)
during the day Tuesday.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Friday for
     PAZ044-047.
NY...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Friday for
     NYZ015>018.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTP
NEAR TERM...CTP
SHORT TERM...CTP
LONG TERM...CTP
AVIATION...BT