


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
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036 FXUS61 KBGM 161923 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY Issued by National Weather Service State College PA 323 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build into the region and keep it dry through Saturday. A mature storm system moving in from the west will cause our next chance of showers Saturday night. Sunday looks wet as a warm front, then a cold front pass, generating several rounds of showers and a few thunderstorms. Another cold front will arrive by the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... As high pressure builds in, the pressure gradient will slacken and we should also stratify/stabilize overnight. That will slacken the wind. The clear skies and light/no wind will allow temps to dip close to freezing, but mainly in the mid 30s in the parts of the CWA which have not yet had a freeze. That all means frost should form. We have added the northern 4 zones to the going frost advisory for the southern couple for the overnight hours. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... After the frost melts, we should have bright sunshine and light wind (less than 10 MPH, at least). Very dry air (30-something dewpoints) will make it feel a little chilly, but temps should get ~5F warmer than Thurs, maxing out in the 50s for most and near 60F in the southern valleys. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... The high pressure area overhead will slide slowly to the east on Saturday. As moisture and warmer air aloft stream north and east out of the OH valley, a couple of very light showers/sprinkles could fall over the NE half of the CWA Sat night. But, the PoPs increase on Sun aftn and peak Sun night and early Monday. A rather mature storm system will move through then, and could make some thunder, too. Precip totals out that far are not a high certainty, but 0.5-0.75" looks like a good first guess at this point. && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... High amplitude ridge building across the Northeast today will remain the dominant feature for the next 24 hours and bring with it very dry conditions. VFR conditions will prevail at all forecast terminals, with the exception of ELM where a 10-15 pct of IFR valley fog in and around the site exists late tonight and Friday morning. There were locations of valley fog along the Susquehanna and Chemung River this morning, but it did not make it near the ELM airport. Should be similar conditions Fri morning. Once the fog lifts and mixes out, VFR conditions will persist. Winds are expected to be gusty out of the N/NW this afternoon with gusts as high as 20-25 kts. Winds will mostly diminish to 6 kt or less after 00Z this evening and completely decouple at some locations tonight... becoming calm. Then, after 14Z Friday, winds will increase again up to 8 to 12 kt out of the north before 18Z. Outlook... Friday afternoon through Saturday...Mainly VFR. Chance of valley fog in the morning. Sunday and Monday...MVFR or IFR Restrictions likely (greater than 70 pct chance) with a front moving through, especially later in the day Sunday into Monday. Tuesday...A few MVFR/IFR restrictions possible (40-50 pct) during the day Tuesday. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Friday for PAZ044-047. NY...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Friday for NYZ015>018. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CTP NEAR TERM...CTP SHORT TERM...CTP LONG TERM...CTP AVIATION...BT