277
FXUS61 KBGM 171146
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
646 AM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Lake effect snow showers will continue through tonight, mainly
across central New York, before ending by later Tuesday
morning. A weak area of low pressure passes to our south Tuesday
night, then high pressure builds in leading to quiet conditions
Wednesday into Thursday along with a slight warming trend. A
chance for rain showers returns for the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Widespread lake effect snow showers and embedded narrower,
heavier snow bands will continue across much of CNY this morning
as a broad upper level trough and northwest flow across the
Great Lakes continues to be in place. A surface low moving
toward the Gulf of St. Lawrence and Canadian maritimes is also
helping to increase moisture over the region as Atlantic
moisture wraps around the low and pushes south out of Canada.
Allow for extra travel time this morning as the narrow, more
intense snow bands can lead to rapidly changing conditions over
short distances, with low visibility and slippery, snow-covered
roads. While the pressure gradient over the area won`t be quite
as strong as Sunday, it will still be a breezy day with wind
gusts of 20 to 30 mph expected. Locally higher gusts around 35
mph are possible in the higher terrain of the eastern Catskills
and Poconos.

As the upper trough starts to slowly lift to the north and east
this afternoon and evening, the flow becomes a bit more west-
northwesterly, and a more concentrated band of snow is expected
to develop over CNY, stretching from around the northern Finger
Lakes region across the higher terrain of CNY south of the NYS
Thruway. This band is expected to gradually shift north later
tonight into tomorrow morning and be located near or just south
of the I-90 corridor before tapering off as weak high pressure
builds in. With bands of snow expected to be around through the
morning commute tomorrow, the Winter Weather Advisory across
much of CNY has been extended through 10 AM Tuesday morning with
an additional 2 to 6 inches of snow expected with the highest
totals in the higher terrain, while the Winter Weather Advisory
for Northern Oneida County remains in effect through 7 PM this
evening, as the wrap around moisture and lake enhanced snow
showers in this area diminishes. An additional 1 to 3 inches of
snow is expected here.

High temperatures today will be in the 30s from the Twin Tiers
northward. The Wyoming and Delaware River Valleys in NE PA are
expected to reach the low and mid 40s. Lows tonight fall back
into the 20s for much of the area. The Lake Plain and Finger
Lakes will reach the lower 30s. Tuesday is expected to be a few
degrees warmer as the flow becomes westerly and afternoon highs
range from the mid 30s to the mid 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A quick-moving weak area of low pressure is expected to pass by
to our south Tuesday night. Some guidance suggest that the
northern edge of the precipitation with this feature may extend
into NE PA, mainly across the Wyoming Valley and Poconos. If
enough moisture does make it into the area, mainly light snow
would fall Tuesday night, leaving not much more than a fresh
coating. Lows Tuesday night will be mainly in the 20s, with
teens expected in the higher terrain of CNY and toward the Tug
Hill.

Quieter weather conditions are expected Wednesday through
Thursday as high pressure builds in along with a more zonal flow
aloft. Temperatures will trend a bit warmer into midweek as the
850mb flow becomes more southwesterly Thursday and highs reach
the mid and upper 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A warm front is expected to work its way into the area late
week with a potential surge of milder air Friday. A chance of
showers returns along with the frontal boundary as high
temperatures look to range mainly between the upper 40s and mid
50s. A couple of other features may keep a low chance of showers
around into the start of the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Narrow lake effect snow bands continue to stream across several
of the NY terminals this morning KSYR-KRME-KITH-KBGM, with
fluctuations mainly from VFR into MVFR though brief visibility
below 3 miles cannot totally be ruled out. However, a primary
more restrictive band is expected to lift towards KSYR by late
today through the coming evening, when 1-2 mile visibility will
probably occur. KELM-KAVP meanwhile will persist at VFR through
the period, with KBGM-KITH joining them late morning onward.
Gusty west-northwest winds will continue in this pattern,
reaching 20-25 knot range before diminishing some in the
evening. However, flow will remain strong enough just off the
surface for marginal low level wind shear to develop in the
evening for at least KBGM-KELM; possibly others.

Outlook...

Tuesday morning...Lingering lake effect clouds for KITH-KBGM-
KSYR-KRME and associated possible minor MVFR ceilings,
especially KSYR where occasional snow showers may still fall.
Generally VFR KAVP-KELM.

Tuesday afternoon through Thursday...Mainly VFR, except brief
restrictions possible KAVP Tuesday night as a weak disturbance
passes with a small chance of snow showers.

Thursday Night through Friday...Rain showers likely with
associated restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for NYZ009.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for NYZ017-018-
     025-036-044-045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DK
NEAR TERM...DK
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...MDP