759
FXUS64 KBMX 042355
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
555 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 550 PM CST THU DEC 4 2025

 - Up to 1-2 inches of rainfall is expected through Saturday,
   potentially approaching 3 inches along and south of the I-85
   corridor. However, no flooding impacts are expected.

 - Below average high temperatures are anticipated through
   Tuesday, with the exception of Sunday being near average.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1133 AM CST THU DEC 4 2025

Rain is currently ongoing across a large area south of I-20, and
this is where the best rain chances will remain through the weekend.
Rain will likely ebb and flow north/south during this time, as the
surface low continues to take shape and move inland. My midnight
shift counterpart described it best as "A conveyor belt of moisture"
remaining in place through Sunday, before another trough finally
pushes the rain east Monday morning.

Conditions will remain dry to start the new workweek, with below
freezing temperatures possible again Tuesday morning. Thankfully,
temperatures will gradually "warm" into Wednesday, but still remain
below average for the most part. With that being said, another deep
trough will begin taking shape, dropping south through the Midwest
during this timeframe. Guidance starts to split here regarding
additional rain chances midweek, with higher confidence in more
cold weather behind this longwave.

/44/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 555 PM CST THU DEC 4 2025

Current MVFR to IFR conditions accompanying waves of light to
moderate rain showers will continue this evening with cigs going
down to LIFR in the late night hours. These lower cigs will
continue through most of the day. BHM/TCL/EET may go to IFR/MVFR
after 21z.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Rain remains in the forecast through the weekend, with fuels likely
staying damp for a few days into next week. MinRH values will remain
above 50% through Monday, with fire weather concerns remaining
little to none.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     37  51  36  51 /  90  20  20  30
Anniston    39  52  39  53 /  90  30  30  40
Birmingham  39  51  40  51 /  90  20  30  30
Tuscaloosa  39  51  39  53 /  90  20  30  30
Calera      39  53  39  54 /  90  30  30  40
Auburn      42  53  44  53 /  90  70  60  70
Montgomery  43  53  44  52 /  90  60  60  70
Troy        42  55  44  53 /  90  70  70  80

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION...08