974
FXUS64 KBMX 021136
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
536 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 529 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2025

 - Widespread light rain this morning will gradually end from west
   to east by midday. Cold, blustery, and cloudy conditions will
   follow with temperatures holding steady or falling through this
   afternoon as a cold front moves across the area.

 - Cold temperatures in the 20s and lower 30s are forecast
   overnight, but could be warmer than expected if low clouds
   remain in place.

 - Another storm system is poised to arrive by the end of the
   upcoming week with an additional opportunity for soaking rains
   Thursday night through Friday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Wednesday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 324 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2025

Today through Tonight:

Central Alabama is literally "in a wedge" this morning ahead of
the approaching cold front that will usher in a modified arctic
airmass into the region during the day today. The CAD wedge in
Georgia is holding on with pressure gradient winds now ramping up,
with METARs observing wind gusts between 15 and 20 knots from the
east and southeast across eastern Alabama and western Georgia.
Strong isentropic lift will continue to produce widespread low
clouds and rain through the morning, with heaviest amounts still
expected along the I-85 corridor. The surface low just south of
Pensacola will continue to move inland across southwest Georgia by
sunrise this morning, with the cold front quickly following in its
wake. As dry air quickly filters in from the west and northwest,
rain will quickly end from west to east between 7am and noon with
low clouds hanging on all day. Highs for the day are occurring as
we speak for a majority of locations, as much colder air behind
the front will move southeastward with winds gusting between 15
and 25mph at times. By this afternoon, we`ll likely be in the mid
to upper 30s in Haleyville and Hamilton, while Montgomery will be
dropping into the mid 40s. No doubt about it, we`re looking at a
very cold and raw day across Central Alabama.

Looking into the forecast for tonight, we could end up having a
big forecast challenge on our hands. We`re getting into that time
of the year where unexpected post-frontal stratus development
processes can absolutely cause a big forecast bust. The current
GOES-19 Night Fog product depicts a very pronounced layer of low
stratus clouds that stretch all the way back into far eastern
Oklahoma. Some of those clouds will be able to mix out during the
day today on the western fringe, but farther to the east
confidence is high that the low stratus will hold together all day
across much of Mississippi and all of Alabama. I`m starting to
see some high-res guidance trends as well as HREF probabilities
pointing toward a higher chance of lingering low stratus after
midnight. Forecast soundings from some of the high-res members
are presenting a very shallow layer of moisture essentially
trapped underneath the inversion and very dry air moving in
aloft. Other members finally mix the clouds out during the evening
hours, but are hinting at the potential for patchy freezing fog
development due to plenty of moisture remaining at the surface,
winds becoming calm, and temperatures quickly falling toward the
dewpoint. If guidance trends during the day shift continue to
indicate low stratus hanging around longer tonight, temperatures
will need to be greatly modified upward and sky cover forecast
increased as well. For now I`m trending in that direction, but not
going all-in just yet. Lows have been adjusted upward into the mid
20s across the Highway 278 corridor to just below freezing across
the far southeast.

Wednesday through this Weekend:

Wednesday will be a dry and mostly calm day with temperatures
around normal for early December. Highs are forecast in the 50s
and lows in the 30s as upper level flow temporarily becomes zonal
over the Deep South. By Thursday, southwesterly flow at 500mb
returns as yet another disturbance heads our way from Mexico and
southern Texas. It appears that the heaviest precipitation should
stay to our south most of the day on Thursday, with 700mb flow
remaining westerly and drier air present aloft across the northern
half of the state. However, we`ll probably see light radar returns
showing up along the I-20 corridor with some of that eventually
reaching the ground at times. No winter precip is expected, as
temperatures are expected to remain above freezing. Temperatures
will remain on the chilly side due to the widespread clouds
Thursday afternoon in the upper 40s and lower 50s.

In what could be a very similar setup to what is currently ongoing
outside our window this morning, guidance is indicating yet
another stratiform/isentropic lift rain event across much of the
CWA on Friday. As another surface low develops near or just south
of Mobile Bay Friday afternoon, widespread rain would develop and
move northeastward, with an additional chance for 1 to 2 inches
collecting in the bucket through Friday night across the southern
and southeastern half of Central Alabama. Long-range guidance
trends are indicating a longwave trough developing over much of
the eastern CONUS by the weekend, but disagreement remains in
terms of the depth and strength of an approaching shortwave within
northwest flow aloft. A deeper trough axis would lead to
additional southern stream involvement, while a more subtle wave
would keep the area mostly dry. Temperatures will remain below
normal as we approach early next week.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 529 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2025

Poor aviation conditions are likely to persist through much of
this TAF cycle. -RA will clear all terminals in the next few
hours with IFR/LIFR ceilings left through the afternoon hours.
MVFR returns this evening. Currently have VFR conditions by 06-08Z
Wednesday. However, confidence is not too high in this outcome.
There is a medium chance of MVFR ceilings lingering through the
night. Otherwise, a north-northwest wind will be breezy at times
with gusts from 15-20 knots through this afternoon.

95/Castillo

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Another round of soaking rainfall is expected to move across
Central Alabama this morning. 1 to 2 inches of rainfall on
average is anticipated across the southeast half of Central
Alabama. Dry weather returns by midday Tuesday through Wednesday
with MinRHs ranging from the mid 30s to lower 40s once again by
Wednesday afternoon. Additional rain chances return for Thursday
and Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     46  26  52  31 /  40   0   0  10
Anniston    49  26  54  34 /  50   0   0   0
Birmingham  46  27  52  35 /  30   0   0  10
Tuscaloosa  44  28  54  37 /  20   0   0  10
Calera      47  27  56  35 /  30   0   0  10
Auburn      54  31  54  38 /  50   0   0   0
Montgomery  54  31  53  36 /  30   0   0  10
Troy        55  31  55  37 /  30   0   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...56/GDG
AVIATION...95/Castillo