199
FXUS64 KBMX 101755
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1155 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, CLIMATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1155 AM CST MON NOV 10 2025

  -Breezy conditions will continue through this afternoon with
   wind gusts of 25 to 30 mph. Combined with low relative
   humidity, an increased fire danger will exist, especially from
   the highway 80 corridor southward where a Red Flag Warning is
   in effect through 6 pm.

  -Temperatures will drop into the lower 20s tonight, ending the
   growing season for all of Central Alabama. Typically colder
   locations may reach the upper teens.

  -Rain-free weather continues for the next several days with the
   next opportunity for rain coming early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through next Saturday)
Issued at 1155 AM CST MON NOV 10 2025

Cold air advection is fully underway as a deep and cold upper
trough swings across the eastern U.S. Gusty northwest winds will
continue through the afternoon, resulting in wind chill values
around 10 degrees lower than the air temperature. A dry air mass
has also settled across central Alabama with minimum humidity
values as low as 22 percent near and south of the 80 corridor. A
Red Flag Warning is in effect through 6 pm for those counties as
dry/windy conditions promote critical fire weather conditions.

The center of surface high pressure approaches tonight and will be
very close by on Tuesday. This will result in a relaxed pressure
gradient and, in turn, lighter winds. As such, we`ll transition
from a pattern of advection cooling to radiational cooling
tonight. Low temperatures will be much colder tonight, averaging
in the lower 20s. Our typically cooler locations could reach the
upper 10s. This is quite the early-season freeze with record low
temperatures in play at several of our climate sites! See the
climate section below for stats.

Quiet weather is expected through the rest of the week with high
and low temperatures moderating from the early-week chill. Our
next rainmaker looks to arrive sometime during the Sunday to
Monday time frame. Due to notable differences in timing amongst
ensemble data, NBM precipitation probabilities are somewhat muted due
to the spread in scenarios. Once timing comes into better
certainty, current 30-40% rain chances should increase considering
how broad the QPF signal is with the front.

89^GSatterwhite

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1155 AM CST MON NOV 10 2025

VFR conditions are forecast today through tomorrow. A batch of VFR
clouds with a few flurries will scoot across the northern-half of
central Alabama. Breezy and gusty northwest winds continue
through ~00z this evening, trending lighter for the rest of the
TAF period.

89^GSatterwhite

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A Red Flag Warning is in effect for counties along and south of
the Highway 80 corridor through 6 pm this evening.

RH values should drop below 25 percent for a couple hours in far
southern portions of Central Alabama, and will be in the 25 to 35
percent range elsewhere. 20ft winds will gust above 25 mph
areawide. RH values drop below 25 percent for several hours
Tuesday for almost all of Central Alabama, but winds will be much
lighter. There are no fire weather concerns at this time beyond
Tuesday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1145 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2025

Record Low Temperatures:

November 11:
KBHM: 25/1926
KEET: 27/1996
KANB: 24/1950
KTCL: 26/1953
KMGM: 29/1991

Record Cold High Temperatures:

November 10:
KBHM: 46/1950
KEET: 50/2018
KANB: 47/1950
KTCL: 51/1977
KMGM: 55/2018

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     41  21  51  34 /  10   0   0   0
Anniston    41  23  50  34 /  10   0   0   0
Birmingham  41  24  52  37 /  10   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  45  24  54  35 /   0   0   0   0
Calera      45  23  54  34 /   0   0   0   0
Auburn      44  25  51  35 /   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  46  24  53  32 /   0   0   0   0
Troy        46  24  53  32 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Tuesday for
the following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-Bullock-
Calhoun-Chambers-Cherokee-Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas-
Elmore-Etowah-Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lee-Lowndes-
Macon-Marengo-Marion-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Pike-Randolph-
Russell-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-
Walker-Winston.

Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for the following
counties: Barbour-Bullock-Dallas-Lowndes-Marengo-Montgomery-Pike-
Russell-Sumter.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...89^GSatterwhite
AVIATION...89^GSatterwhite