850
FXUS64 KBMX 040116
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
716 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 624 PM CST WED DEC 3 2025

 - Below average temperatures are anticipated for most of the next
   seven days.

 - Another 1-2 inches of rainfall is expected through Saturday,
   potentially approaching 3 inches along and south of the I-85
   corridor. However, no flooding impacts are expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through next Monday)
Issued at 1128 AM CST WED DEC 3 2025

Surface ridging will hold on strong today, keeping clouds in place
through the morning under this stable airmass. However, this ridge
will begin to break down into the evening hours, as this new surface
low takes shape in the northern Gulf. Rain chances associated with
this low will begin to increase by the morning hours on Thursday,
with widespread rainfall continuing through the weekend.

The heaviest axis of this rainfall will depend on how far north
this surface low ends up tracking. Right now, it appears the
largest rainfall amounts will stay below I-20, with most locations
here seeing 1-2 inches of rain. Farther south near the I-85
corridor, 3+ inches of rain will be possible, as that is where the
stronger forcing will be along the low pressure. All this rain
will fall over a several day period, so the only impact expected
is additional relief from the ongoing drought.

By Sunday, a longwave trough will begin to drop south through the
Midwest, working into the region by Monday. This will finally push
the rest of the lingering rain to the east, with dry conditions
returning to the region. During the process, another shot of
reinforcing cold air will work in behind a cold front, with lows
Monday night dropping into the mid to upper-20s. Otherwise,
temperatures will generally remain below average for this time of
the year.

/44/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 715 PM CST WED DEC 3 2025

Sites are VFR as of now. Look for increasing high and mid level
cloudiness overnight with VFR cigs lowering as the morning
progresses on Thu as shower activity spreads across the area. No
TSRA is anticipated. During the afternoon, cigs will progressively
lower to MVFR then to IFR during the late afternoon from the S.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Rain chances will begin to increase by tomorrow morning, as another
system works its way in from the northern Gulf. 1-2 inches of
rainfall are expected through Saturday, with some locations getting
north of 3 inches. These values will heavily depend on where the
heaviest rainfall banding sets up. No flooding is expected, and the
only impact across the region will be continued drought relief.
Otherwise, MinRH values will remain above 50%, and fire weather
concerns will remain limited through the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     27  50  35  50 /   0  30  90  80
Anniston    31  51  39  50 /   0  40  90  80
Birmingham  33  49  40  50 /   0  40  90  70
Tuscaloosa  32  50  40  50 /  10  50  90  60
Calera      32  51  39  52 /   0  50  90  80
Auburn      35  51  42  52 /   0  60  90  90
Montgomery  34  49  42  53 /   0  70  90  90
Troy        34  49  41  55 /   0  80  90  90

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION...08