380
FXUS64 KBMX 292024
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
224 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 135 PM CST SAT NOV 29 2025

 - Significant rain amounts of one to two inches expected across
   central Alabama tonight through Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Friday)
Issued at 135 PM CST SAT NOV 29 2025

Everything remains pretty much on track for a substantial rain
event for central Alabama over the next 3+ days. The first signs
of change are on our doorstep, with radar showing showers across
parts of Mississippi. We`ve still got lots of dry in the low
levels here in Alabama, so as that MS stuff heads east it is
initially expected to dry up or just produce virga. However, large
scale lift associated with an upper level shortwave and advancing
surface cold front will eventually allow the column to become more
saturated. Widespread showers will spread from west to east across
our area late tonight through the day on Sunday.

We do still expect a lull in the steady rain late Sunday into
very early Monday, as the cold front stalls out and the lead
shortwave lifts out to the northeast. However, the next shortwave
trough will follow close behind, and induce an overrunning rain
event Monday afternoon through Tuesday evening. We will be on the
cold side of the airmass, with the surface low moving eastward
right along the Gulf coast. Cold rain, especially Monday night.

The rain comes to an end later in the day on Tuesday, and surface
high pressure builds back into the southeast states. Beyond that,
forecast confidence nosedives, as global models continue to
diverge on how the next series of shortwaves is handled.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1129 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2025

VFR conditions can be anticipated across central Alabama TAF sites
through this evening. An approaching cold front will ultimately
lead to lowering ceilings and increasing chances of rain late
tonight into early Sunday. The moistening process will be top-
down, with ceilings following suit. At some point, the rain will
come down hard enough to bring cloud bases down below 3000 ft.
I`ve tried to time out the transition from VFR to MVFR as best I
could, but there is a bit of uncertainty due to the showery nature
of the rain. Once the ceilings drop, they will likely stay that
way well beyond the end of the current 24-hour forecast period.

/61/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A series of upper level diturbances will bring at least two waves
of rain to central Alabama late Saturday night through Tuesday
afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     38  52  29  53 /  50  60  10  50
Anniston    41  53  33  55 /  30  60  20  50
Birmingham  44  52  34  53 /  50  70  20  50
Tuscaloosa  44  53  34  53 /  60  70  20  60
Calera      42  56  34  56 /  40  70  20  50
Auburn      43  61  42  58 /  10  40  20  40
Montgomery  43  61  44  61 /  10  40  20  40
Troy        42  66  45  63 /   0  30  20  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION.../61/
AVIATION.../61/