926
FXUS64 KBMX 231204
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
604 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 600 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2025

 - Dense fog will affect southeast portions of Central Alabama
   through early this morning.

 - Showers and thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday with a level
   1 out of 5 risk for a couple severe thunderstorms.

 - Clear and colder conditions are forecast for Thanksgiving Day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through next Saturday)
Issued at 245 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2025

Early this week:

A shortwave ridge approaches today and quickly scoots by on
Monday, resulting in tame weather conditions. Northerly flow
behind Saturday`s frontal passage will promote relatively mild
temperatures today compared to yesterday`s record highs.
Southerly flow kicks back in on Monday, once again increasing our
margin above seasonal normals.

Tuesday`s active weather:

A pronounced trough over the Desert Southwest today is forecast to
become more broad by the time it swings by our region. A key item
is that through the course of this evolution, its axis of forcing
quickly ejects to the northeast. This should leave us with a bit
of a disjointed setup in terms of severe weather; however, a
sheared wind profile is forecast to envelop the region with the
prospect for at least a weakly unstable air mass, so its worth
some attention.

Forecast models suggest the initial wave of showers and
thunderstorms should arrive across northwest Alabama around
midnight. Though the trough axis would be at its most favorable
proximity at this time, in the absence of appreciable warm
advection to overcome boundary layer cooling, surface-based
instability is shown to be nil. Thunderstorms could still occur,
though, due to weak instability aloft, but the severe risk would
be low in this environment.

Showers and thunderstorms will advance across the rest of central
Alabama through the course of Tuesday. Cloudiness plus the
anticipated coverage and reoccurring nature of activity may keep
surface-based instability fairly modest; combined with veering
surface and low-level flow, and the main low-level jet corridor
pulling away, the severe risk looks to remain low at this time.
Still, there will be ample speed shear so we`ll have to closely
monitor other environmental parameters.

Showers and thunderstorms should draw to a close early Wednesday
morning with variable cloudiness and a northwest breeze through
the day. A chillier air mass will be inbound from the northwest,
arriving Wednesday night.

Late week:

High pressure will be in control on Thursday and Friday, featuring
clear weather and cold mornings/and cool to mild afternoons.

The weekend:

High pressure will move to the east on Saturday. A broad
troughing pattern across the western CONUS will send a series of
shortwaves eastward. If the faster model solutions are correct, we
could see rain return for the second-half of the weekend.

89^GSatterwhite

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 600 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2025

Low stratus and fog are present in 2 areas. The first in the SE
affecting MGM/AUO is along and ahead of the front with IFR-LIFR
conditions. The fog is lessoning as it erodes from the NE with
drier air moving in behind the front. However, there is also some
wrap around moisture after a gap on satellite. This will affect
the remaining TAFs at TCL/BHM/EET. Low cig/vis will be moving into
EET and is ongoing at TCL/BHM. This should go VFR by ~15-17z. NRLY
winds 5-7kts will be present today with mixing behind the front.
but should taper down after sunset.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MinRHs are forecast to remain well above critical thresholds over
the next several days. Relatively low MinRHs look to return late
next week, from Thanksgiving to Saturday. Light winds are forecast
today and Monday, becoming closer to 10 mph with the potential for
gusts near 20 mph from the south on Tuesday and northwest on
Wednesday, the light once again later in the week.

Widespread showers and a few thunderstorms are expected Tuesday
and Tuesday night, perhaps some lingering activity into early
Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     70  42  73  55 /   0   0   0  50
Anniston    71  44  74  57 /   0   0   0  30
Birmingham  69  47  73  60 /   0   0   0  50
Tuscaloosa  72  47  76  60 /   0   0   0  60
Calera      73  45  76  57 /   0   0   0  40
Auburn      74  51  75  57 /   0   0   0  20
Montgomery  75  48  78  58 /   0   0   0  20
Troy        74  50  78  56 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for the following
counties: Barbour-Bullock-Chambers-Elmore-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-
Montgomery-Pike-Russell-Tallapoosa.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...89^GSatterwhite
AVIATION...08