299
FXUS64 KBMX 211055
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
455 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 452 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2025

 - Dense fog will affects parts of central Alabama through roughly
   8 am today.

 - Periods of showers and a few thunderstorms are expected today
   and tonight with a level 1 risk for a severe thunderstorm or
   two.

 - Near-record high temperatures are forecast for parts of central
   Alabama on Saturday.

 - Showers and thunderstorms are likely Tuesday into Wednesday. A
   low risk for severe thunderstorms may arise with this system.

 - Clear and cool conditions are currently forecast for
   Thanksgiving Day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through next Thursday)
Issued at 300 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2025

Today & tonight:

A series of mid-level impulses will translate across the region
through tonight. Moisture advection and broad ascent will spawn
several progressive batches/clusters of showers and a few
thunderstorms. Forecast soundings show the low levels to only be
weakly unstable at best, though a few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE will
exist, with bulk shear nearing 40 knots and a decently veered wind
profile. A couple cells may acquire modest intensity, offering:
downpours and perhaps brief gusty winds and transient, "mini-
spinny" structures (brief tornado threat is quite low).

The weekend:

We should be on the tail end of the brunt of shower and
thunderstorm activity early Saturday morning as the last mid-level
impulse moves by. Through the rest of the day, improved
conditions are forecast, though a low chance for a few light
showers remains as the front associated with Friday`s system nears
the region. Prior to frontal passage, model guidance continues to
show high temperatures near the daily record for a few climate
sites.

Clear and cooler conditions arrive for the second-half of the
weekend.

Early to mid next week:

Temperatures are forecast to rebound by a few degrees early next
week, holding above seasonal normals. Monday looks rain-free as a
shortwave ridge moves across the area. A pair of troughs will be
on its heels and bring a round of showers and thunderstorms.
Ensembles maintain the primary window being Tuesday into Tuesday
night; however, there`s a decent amount of GFS/ECMWF ensembles
that show a slower passage of the system, resulting in lingering
activity into Wednesday. Instability/shear parameters suggest a
low severe weather risk could materialize, though the main lobe of
forcing quickly ejects to the northeast early in the event. We
maintain the same posture of the past couple of days: watching but
no formal inclusion in the official forecast.

Thanksgiving Day:

It looks like we`ll get the early-week rainmaker out of here in
time for Thanksgiving. The current forecast features fair-weather
conditions and cool temperatures.

89^GSatterwhite

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 455 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2025

Fog may affect a few terminals through 15z today.

Batches of showers and a few thunderstorms will move across the
region today and tonight. Widespread low ceilings are forecast to
take hold through the course of this evening/night.

There is a bit of a challenge to the TAFs in terms of the timing
and extent of reduced ceilings and visibility; amendments may be
required.

89^GSatterwhite

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MinRHs are forecast to remain above, and winds below, critical
thresholds over the next several days. Batches of showers and a
few thunderstorms are forecast to affect much of central Alabama
today and tonight. Another round of showers and thunderstorms is
likely Tuesday into Tuesday night.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1200 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2025

Record High Temperatures:

November 22:
KBHM: 79/1900
KEET: 77/2010
KANB: 79/1963
KTCL: 79/1979
KMGM: 81/2011

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     74  60  77  46 /  60  70  20   0
Anniston    75  62  76  48 /  60  70  30   0
Birmingham  72  64  76  50 /  60  60  20   0
Tuscaloosa  74  63  78  49 /  80  60  20   0
Calera      75  61  79  49 /  70  70  20   0
Auburn      75  64  78  53 /  30  50  30   0
Montgomery  77  64  81  53 /  50  50  20   0
Troy        77  64  81  53 /  20  30  20   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for the following
counties: Barbour-Bullock-Calhoun-Chambers-Cherokee-Clay-
Cleburne-Coosa-Elmore-Etowah-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-Marion-Montgomery-
Pike-Randolph-Russell-St. Clair-Talladega-Tallapoosa-Winston.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...89
AVIATION...89^GSatterwhite