Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
832 FXUS64 KBMX 051136 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 636 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 123 AM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025 Central Alabama is at the southwestern periphery of a ridge centered off the East Coast, with easterly surface winds and southeasterly mid-level flow over Alabama. Winds will be somewhat gusty again today, with gusts 15-20 mph possible during the daytime hours. Cloud cover is likely to hang around much of the day today, which will work to hold down high temperatures similar to yesterday. Highs should be in the upper 70s across the east to the low 80s in most places. With increased moisture, partially from a weak former tropical disturbance, moving into the region, showers and a storm or two will be possible this afternoon. Rain chances are highest along and south of U.S. 80, with the lowest chances north of I-20. The best rain chances overnight will shift to the western part of Central Alabama as activity moves generally northwestward. Monday will be similar to Sunday in regards to high temperatures, upper 70s to low 80s, and rain chances, 20-30% across southern and western counties. 12 && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 123 AM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025 By Tuesday and Wednesday, a weak front will work into the area, maintaining 20-30% rain chances, mainly across northern and central counties. Ahead of the front, high temperatures are forecast to be in the mid to upper 80s in most areas Tuesday through Wednesday, although increased cloud cover could work to hold down temps to the low 80s. A slight cooldown is expected toward the end of the week, with upper 70s to low 80s Thursday and Friday. Slight rain chances are currently forecast for areas east of I-65 on Thursday afternoon, subject to change. Overall, the dry period will remain in place, as the small rain chances throughout the forecast period will do little to halt emerging or worsening drought conditions across different parts of the region. With little relief in sight from a rainfall standpoint, drought and fire danger is likely to continue, if not worsen, through next week. 12 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 636 AM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025 Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period, with mostly broken to overcast mid and high level clouds this morning. AUO may drop down to MVFR category briefly this morning, and may need to also monitor MGM for a potential amendment through 14z for brief lower ceilings. Otherwise, ceilings should be mainly VFR through the day today. Easterly winds will remain gusty at times, prevailing between 10 and 15 knots with gusts above 20 knots through 00z this evening. Scattered SHRA development will be possible at MGM and AUO later this afternoon, and added PROB30s for those sites. Overnight, winds will diminish under 10 knots with forecast guidance indicating lower ceilings expected to move northward through 12z Monday morning. MVFR ceilings have been added into the planning period for all terminals as a result. 56/GDG && .FIRE WEATHER... A 20-30% rain chance will be in the forecast today and Monday. However, as coverage is expected to be isolated, no widespread wetting rainfall is expected. Any rainfall amounts will be too light to mitigate the worsening drought. RH values should remain above 50% each afternoon through Tuesday. Winds today will be generally easterly at up to 12-15 mph, gusting to 20 mph. Outdoor burning remains highly discouraged due to ongoing drought conditions. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 82 66 81 64 / 10 20 10 0 Anniston 80 67 79 66 / 20 20 10 0 Birmingham 83 68 81 68 / 20 20 10 10 Tuscaloosa 85 71 83 69 / 30 40 20 10 Calera 82 68 82 67 / 30 30 20 0 Auburn 78 67 79 66 / 30 20 20 0 Montgomery 82 69 83 67 / 40 30 20 0 Troy 80 68 82 67 / 50 40 20 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...56/GDG