495
FXUS64 KBMX 281725
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1125 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1121 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2025

 - Clear and colder conditions expected through Saturday afternoon.

 - A rainy pattern returns Saturday night through Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Thursday)
Issued at 1003 PM CST THU NOV 27 2025

Cold advection will continue tonight as an area of high pressure
moves in from the northwest. As the pressure gradient relaxes,
radiational cooling will become more of a factor, and temperatures
should bottom out in the mid 20s to around 30 at daybreak on
Friday. Cool northerly flow will continue into Friday afternoon,
limiting daytime heating, and afternoon high temperatures may be a
degree or two lower compared to Thanksgiving Day.

High pressure will move to the east on Saturday ahead of an
approaching shortwave trough, resulting in the development of
southerly low-level flow and warmer temperatures. Eventually
moisture recovery will become sufficient to maintain a narrow
corridor of showers as a cold front moves across the state late
Saturday night and Sunday.

Between shortwaves, Sunday night through part of Monday should
remain dry. As the next shortwave swings into the Southern Plains
on Monday night, isentropic lift will develop in the post-frontal
environment. A cold rain will become widespread Monday afternoon
through Tuesday morning as a surface low skirts the Gulf coast
before moving up the Atlantic coastline. Behind this system, we
can expect a return to cooler and drier conditions for Tuesday
afternoon through Thursday.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1121 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2025

VFR conditions expected in central Alabama through the next 24
hours. No clouds below 15K ft, and no visibility restrictions
anticipated. The return to more active weather is still beyond 24
hours away.

/61/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A very dry airmass will persist into Friday and Saturday with
afternoon RH values around 25 percent, though RH could drop as
low as 20 percent at a few spots in our southeastern counties.
20 foot winds of 5 to 10 mph are expected Friday and Saturday,
shifting from the north on Friday to the southeast for Saturday.
Moisture will increase Saturday night as a wet pattern takes shape
through Monday night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     49  25  55  39 /   0   0   0  50
Anniston    49  28  55  41 /   0   0   0  40
Birmingham  50  32  55  44 /   0   0   0  60
Tuscaloosa  52  32  57  44 /   0   0  10  60
Calera      53  30  58  42 /   0   0   0  40
Auburn      52  33  57  43 /   0   0   0  10
Montgomery  53  33  60  44 /   0   0   0  10
Troy        53  32  60  43 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...87/Grantham
AVIATION.../61/