Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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000
FXUS64 KBMX 032330
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
630 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION HAS PUSHED TO NEAR A
TUSCALOOSA...CALERA...ASHLAND LINE. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ACT AS A
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
THE MAIN BAND OF RAIN HAS PUSHED INTO FAR NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND
ALABAMA. THERE WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA LATER TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
ROTATES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROF. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL THE PAST 12 HOURS HAS BEEN CONFINED TO MAINLY MARION AND
WINSTON COUNTIES...WITH 2 T 4 INCHES OF RAIN. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
VALUES ARE STILL IN THE 2-2.5 INCH PER HOUR ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...AND BELIEVE THE GROUND WILL BE ABLE TO HANDLE THE FORECAST
RAINFALL TOTALS TONIGHT WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT FLOODING...AND WILL
NOT ISSUE ANY WATCH AT THIS TIME.

THE SHORT WAVE TROF WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PIVOT EASTWARD THIS
WEEKEND WITH THE TROF AXIS FINALLY SHIFTING EAST OF ALABAMA BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. UNTIL THIS HAPPENS...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.
THE MODELS ARE TRENDING WARMER AND LESS CONVECTIVE NEXT WEEK AS AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
SHOW MORE DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS ALABAMA THAN THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN MODELS...AND WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE 30-35 PERCENT
RANGE FOR NOW...BUT COULD REDUCE POPS IN LATER FORECASTS IF THE
GFS TRENDS DRIER.

58/ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

STORMS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL POSE A
THREAT THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE MAIN ACTIVITY
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WILL BE FROM TCL TO EET BUT OTHER STORMS
ARE NOTED BACK INTO MISSISSIPPI. ALSO WATCHING A CLUSTER OF STORMS
MOVING TOWARDS MGM FROM THE SOUTHWEST. IN SHORT...POTENTIAL
IMPACTS POSSIBLE AT ANYTIME THIS EVENING. WINDS GENERALLY
SOUTHWEST AT 4 TO 8 KTS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE
TOMORROW AFTERNOOON.

88

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES AND ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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