Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
FXUS64 KBMX 012036
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
335 PM CDT SAT OCT 1 2016
Tonight and Tomorrow.
Clear skies across the southeast counties have allowed temperatures
to warm into the low to mid 80s there this afternoon, while
temperatures remain in the low 70s in the far northwest forecast
area due to thicker stratocumulus associated with the upper low.
This vertically stacked upper low is currently spinning near the
Indiana/Michigan border and will move northeastward into Ontario
tonight and tomorrow. Mid and upper-level troughing will develop in
the wake of the upper low tonight and tomorrow with a couple
shortwaves moving through. Lift associated with these features and
increasing mid and upper-level moisture will allow for some mid and
high clouds to move across the area at times, but low-levels will be
too dry for any precipitation. This high cloudiness, slightly higher
dew points, and warmer low-levels will allow low temperatures to not
be quite as cool as the last few nights. However, will still go on
the cool side of guidance as high clouds will remain scattered and
winds will be light, as well as due to the dry air mass in place.
Low to mid 50s are expected. Tomorrow low-level thicknesses continue
to increase under westerly flow, so despite passing high clouds
expect highs to range from the low to mid 80s north to the mid to
upper 80s southeast.
Monday through Friday
Monday, westerly flow aloft and surface ridging to the north will
continue to keep dry and stable conditions over the area. Temps
will be kept moderate at mid 80s, due to weak cold air advection.
As an upper trough, begins to exit the Rockies on Tuesday, the
advection pattern will change from cold to warm. With this change
temps will rise to upper 80s and cloud cover will increase. Models
indicated a slight chance of sprinkles Tuesday afternoon, however
probability is still too low to have high confidence at this time.
The timing of the cold front late next week continues to be pushed
back as with rain chances. There is still some divergence on the
exact moisture return for this system. Somewhat dependent on
Matthew`s speed and location. Fortunately Matthew is still
expected to remain far to the east of us and not directly impact
18Z TAF Discussion.
VFR conditions are forecast today into Sunday; varied presence of
clouds over time, light afternoon surface winds becoming calm
An upper-level shortwave over the southern Plains this morning is
expected to continue east, and move into our region tonight and
Sunday. An increase in high-level clouds is expected to begin
later today, with varied coverage of cirrus late-PM into
tomorrow. There will be some afternoon cumulus in areas as well,
with breezes around 5-knots trending to calm tonight.
Dry weather is expected through the next 7 days. No fire weather
concerns are anticipated.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden 51 84 56 85 59 / 0 0 0 0 0
Anniston 51 84 58 85 61 / 0 0 0 0 0
Birmingham 56 84 59 86 62 / 0 0 0 0 0
Tuscaloosa 56 85 60 87 62 / 0 0 0 0 0
Calera 56 84 60 86 62 / 0 0 0 0 0
Auburn 54 85 61 87 64 / 0 0 0 0 0
Montgomery 55 87 61 90 64 / 0 0 0 0 0
Troy 53 85 60 88 63 / 0 0 0 0 0