Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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000
FXUS64 KBMX 252339
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
539 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE EASTERN STATES LONGWAVE
TROUGH WILL HELP SPREAD OVERRUNNING RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN SECTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA TONIGHT. POPS TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM CATEGORICAL IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST...TO NEGLIGIBLE IN
THE NORTHWEST. THE NAM SEEMS TO BE THE ODD MODEL OUT IN
FORECASTING THE RAIN TO SPREAD FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND WEST
TONIGHT. AND JUDGING BY THE LOOK OF THE RADAR SWEEPS IN LA AND
MS...ONE MAY AT FIRST THINK THAT THE NAM IS ON TO SOMETHING. BUT
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IN THAT AREA SHOW NO RAIN CURRENTLY HITTING
THE GROUND...DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S...AND CLOUD
BASES AT 8000 FEET OR MORE. THE RADAR PRESENTATION`S BARK IS
APPARENTLY WORSE THAN ITS BITE. WILL ONLY CARRY CHANCE TO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ALONG THE I-59 CORRIDOR.

THE RAIN QUICKLY MOVES OUT EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS WE GET ON
THE NVA SIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
FEATURES A LARGELY ZONAL TYPE PATTERN...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
MOISTURE OR LARGE TEMPERATURE SWINGS. ONE SURFACE COLD FRONT DOES
GET AS FAR SOUTH AS THE OHIO RIVER EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THIS
COULD BRING A SHOWER OR TO INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES.
OTHERWISE...WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST AND TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
A BIT ABOVE CLIMO.

/61/


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA TONIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW CYCLOGENESIS TO TAKE PLACE EAST OF THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. WHILE MUCH OF THE LIFT AND DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA...KEPT THE MENTION OF MVFR
CEILINGS AND VIS WITH LIGHT RAIN THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS FOR TOI/MGM/ANB. THE REMAINING TERMINALS WILL EXPERIENCE VFR
CEILINGS.

WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 7-10KTS WITH SOME
VARIABILITY ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER QUICK MOVING FRONT.

16

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







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