Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 240805
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
305 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

WATCHING SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS TO TRY AND FIGURE OUT THE POPS
FOR TODAY. WATER VAPOR CLEARLY SHOWING SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DRYING TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS THIS
MORNING. THE SURFACE FRONT WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS IS LAGGING BEHIND
AND IS JUST INTO NORTHWESTERN TENNESSEE. VERY LITTLE...IF
ANY...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT SO WILL NEED A LITTLE EXTRA FORCING
TO GET SOME RAINFALL. THERE IS A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH
LATER THIS MORNING AND ALONG WITH SOME HEATING...SHOULD GET SOME
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATER TODAY.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL MORE THAN LIKELY HAPPEN FROM THE I-20 CORRIDOR
AND SOUTH SINCE SOME OF THE MID LEVEL DRY AIR IS ALREADY PUSHING
INTO THE STATE. THE LATEST HRRR IS ALSO SHOWING THIS WITH THE BEST
CONVECTION DEVELOPING JUST SOUTH OF THE BHM METRO AREA. WILL TWEAK
THE POPS THROUGH THE MORNING BUT SCATTERED MAY BE THE BETTER WAY
TO GO.

THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT IS COMING IN MAY VERY WELL HANG UP
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LINGERING
SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY. AT THIS
TIME...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ARE PROBABLY DRY WITH VERY LIMITED RAIN
CHANCES AS THE STRONG WESTERN RIDGING BRIEFLY EXTENDS TOWARDS THE
DEEP SOUTH. THIS WILL ALSO CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO JUMP UP INTO THE
LOWER 90S WITH A FEW MID 90S MIXED IN AS WELL.

NEXT WEEK...THE WESTERN RIDGING BUILDS AND A DEEP TROUGH WILL
DIG ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS BEGINNING MONDAY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS ARE BETWEEN 2 AND 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL WHICH
WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO THE
DEEP SOUTH. THIS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THE TWO OTHER COOL AIRMASSES
WE HAVE SEEN THIS JULY WITH HIGHS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES IN
THE LOWER 80S TO MID AND UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTH...LOWER DEWPOINTS
AND HUMIDITY WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 60S. SEE NO
REASON WHY THE COOLER TEMPS WANT LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. AS FOR RAINFALL...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ON MONDAY AND THEN DRY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SOME SHOWERS MAY RETURN TO THE AREA BY
THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BUT
WE STILL HAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO LOOK AT THAT.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THIS PACKAGE WAS THE INCREASED
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. THE NORTHERN TERMINALS HAD
PLENTY OF RAIN FALL NEAR THEM LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING. THIS ADDED MOISTURE TO AN ALREADY SATURATED LOW LEVEL
ATMOSPHERE WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. KNOCKED THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS TO IFR BETWEEN 10-14Z WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND
FOG.

A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES THE AREA THURSDAY. WESTERLY
BOUNDARY LEVEL WINDS WILL INTRODUCE INCREASINGLY DRY AIR TO
CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MENTIONED SHOWERS FOR THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS TO DUE THE CLOUD COVER INHIBITING THE EXTENT OF
INSTABILITY. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY RISE TO MVFR AND THEN VFR INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHERN SITES WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AND ADDED VCTS AT 18Z. AT THIS TIME...MENTIONED ONLY
BRIEF MVFR SOUTH AT SUNRISE.

DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

75


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     86  68  88  68  92 /  40  10  10   0  10
ANNISTON    86  70  90  69  91 /  60  20  10   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  87  71  92  71  92 /  50  10  10   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  89  70  93  70  93 /  60  10  10   0  10
CALERA      88  71  90  71  92 /  70  20  10   0  10
AUBURN      88  71  89  71  90 /  60  30  30  10  10
MONTGOMERY  91  73  93  73  93 /  60  30  30  10  10
TROY        90  72  92  71  92 /  60  30  30  10  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








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