Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 200539

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1139 PM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

For 06Z Aviation.



The sharp surface cold front that blew through here yesterday
evening has pushed all the way into central Florida. The latest
satellite imagery depicts the broad trough over the eastern Conus.
A small band of moisture rotated through this trough this morning
and was responsible for a few clouds. But since, the dry air has
mixed these clouds out and not much in the skies for a few states.
The surface high will continue building into Central Alabama
overnight. Winds should diminish after sunset and become light
enough to allow good radiational cooling. A large majority of
locations will experience freezing conditions overnight, and a
Freeze Warning remains in effect. The advertised lows have not
changed too much with 25 to 30 degrees north and 28 to 32 south.


Previous short-term discussion:Today and Tonight.

The cold front has pushed through the entire state of Alabama. North
winds continue to gusts above 20 mph and the winds will diminish
slightly today, but still expected in the 10-20 mph range. Skies
have cleared across west Alabama, and clouds will gradually
dissipate across east Alabama through the early morning hours. The
coldest air mass of the season will settle over the area tonight,
with lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s. A freeze warning has been
issued for all of central Alabama.


Monday through Sunday.

After a cold start to the day Monday, winds shift more easterly as
the surface high slides towards the Carolinas. A shortwave trough
is positioned over Eastern TX as part of the deeper longwave
trough over the eastern half of the US. This shortwave digs into
the ArkLaMiss Monday night and slides through Central AL on
Tuesday. With this shortwave impulse, we could see some light
shower activity south and east of the I-85 corridor, but moisture
return is very limited behind the previous cold front, so I don`t
expect much coverage or rainfall accumulations.

The overall synoptic pattern doesn`t change much through the week
with ridging in the Western US and a trough across the Eastern US.
Models still have been going back and forth with a shortwave sliding
through the Midwest and down into the Gulf States Wednesday night
through Thursday. The solution of a cut-off low developing somewhere
over the Northern Gulf of Mexico keeps coming up, but it`s just a
matter of which model you believe and in which run of that model
because neither the GFS or ECMWF have been overly consistent run to
run. With that said, there does seem to be an overall trend that the
cut-off low, if it forms, will remain fairly weak. Without any
substantial moisture return this week, I`m going to continue edging
the forecast on the dry side. I`ll retain at least a slight chance
of rain showers south and east of the I-85 corridor for Wednesday
and Wednesday night, but even that will probably be on the lower end
of a slight chance. By Thanksgiving and into the weekend, expect dry
conditions to return for all of Central AL.



06Z TAF Discussion.

VFR forecast for the next 24 hours with a surface ridge extending
from Texas to the Carolinas. Clear skies are on tap for the late
night hours with light and variable to near calm winds expected
through sunrise, become easterly during the day on Monday. Some high
cirrus clouds are anticipated for Monday.




Dry and colder air moves in today and Monday. Relative humidity
values drop into the 30s Monday afternoon. Chances for rain look low
for the next 7 days.


Gadsden     28  58  35  61  38 /   0   0   0  10   0
Anniston    28  60  37  61  41 /   0   0   0  10   0
Birmingham  29  59  38  62  42 /   0   0   0  10   0
Tuscaloosa  29  59  36  64  41 /   0   0   0  10   0
Calera      30  59  38  63  42 /   0   0   0  10   0
Auburn      33  59  43  62  46 /   0   0   0  20  10
Montgomery  31  60  41  65  45 /   0   0   0  10  10
Troy        30  62  43  65  47 /   0   0   0  20  20


Freeze Warning until 8 AM CST Monday for the following counties:

Freeze Warning until 8 AM CST Monday for the following counties:
Shelby...St. Clair...Talladega...Tuscaloosa...Walker...Winston.



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