Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 240548
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1248 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

.UPDATE...
For 06Z Aviation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Through Tonight.

The final convective band associated with tropical depression
Cindy has pushed to the I-59 corridor this afternoon. The air
mass is moderately unstable with decent shear and helicity east of
the band to promote a few rotating storms. Because surface winds
have veered more to a southwest direction, the wind flow has
become more unidirectional and lessened the low level directional
shear. This has lessened the tornado threat as the the convective
mode becomes more linear. Heavy rainfall and flash flooding is
still a big concern with this activity. The convective band
should exit east Alabama by 6 pm and any remaining counties still
under a tornado watch will likely be cleared. The heavier rainfall
should also be east of the current flash flood watch and it will
be allowed to expire at 7 pm. Even though there is an upstream MCS
over northern Arkansas, this system will likely stay west of
Alabama as it tracks towards the Mississippi river. As the
remnants of Cindy pulls off to the northeast towards the mid-
Atlantic states, a cold front will get pulled southward tonight
and into extreme north Alabama by sunrise Saturday. The presence
of the cold front will keep scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms across north Alabama overnight.

58/rose


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF Discussion.

Band of showers (with a thunderstorm in the vicinity of TCL) ahead
of a cold front will continue to impact the northern sites during
the overnight hours, eventually sinking southward towards MGM/TOI
around sunrise. IFR cigs are currently present across the northern
sites and should persist, also developing over the southern sites
over the next few hours. Cigs should begin to rise during the
morning hours with a lull in precipitation. Additional
showers/storms will develop ahead of the cold front Saturday
afternoon, but may stay just south of BHM/TCL where the PROB30
was removed. Drier air moves in late Saturday afternoon/Saturday
evening.

32/Davis

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

High rain chances will continue through Saturday with rain chances
decreasing for Sunday and Monday behind a cold front. There are
no fire weather concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     83  65  83  60  82 /  50  20  10  10  10
Anniston    82  67  82  61  83 /  60  20  10  10  10
Birmingham  82  66  83  63  83 /  60  20  10  10  10
Tuscaloosa  83  67  85  64  85 /  60  20  10  10  10
Calera      83  68  83  63  83 /  70  30  10  10  10
Auburn      83  69  82  65  83 /  80  30  20  10  10
Montgomery  86  72  85  65  86 /  80  40  20  10  10
Troy        86  71  85  65  85 /  80  40  30  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.

&&

$$


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