Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 271756
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1256 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATE THIS MORNING WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL AL THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THIS EVENING...AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD.
ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF WET MICROBURSTS ARE POSSIBLE...THE HIGHEST
THREAT IS WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL.  FLASH GUIDANCE REMAINS HIGH
ACROSS THE CWA (2.5+ INCHES/1 HOUR, 3.5+/3 HOUR)...SO WILL NOT ISSUE
WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOOD WATCH ATTM.  HAVE INCREASED QPF FOR THIS
AFTERNOON IN WESTERN COUNTIES.  REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK. STEFKOVICH

$$


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MVFR CIGS STILL AT BHM/TCL BUT EXPECT VFR CONDS BY 19Z. PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING REMAINS SIMILAR WITH SCATTERED TSRA CONTINUING
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MGM/TOI MAY ALSO
BE IMPACTED BY SEABREEZE CONVECTION MOVING NORTHWARD. WILL HANDLE
THE SCATTERED ACTIVITY WITH VCTS WHILE CONTINUING THE TEMPO TSRA
MENTION FOR THE MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY LATER ON...BUT DID PUSH
BACK THE TEMPO LINE BY 1-2 HOURS BASED ON LATEST HRRR MODEL
GUIDANCE. AMENDMENTS WILL PROBABLY BE REQUIRED.

TSRA WILL MOVE OUT BY 6Z...BUT LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT FOG IS MORE LIKELY THAN LOW CLOUDS GIVEN
LACK OF LOW-LEVEL LIFT BUT A MOIST ATMOSPHERE AND RAINFALL. FOR
NOW HAVE INTRODUCED MVFR FOG TOMORROW AM EVERYWHERE EXCEPT BHM.

32/DAVIS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 352 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

NO RAIN IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF CENTRAL ALABAMA EARLY THIS
MORNING. A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI THE PAST 6 HOURS. THIS
AREA SEEMS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TAIL END OF A VORT MAX OVER
IOWA. A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOWLY PUSHING
EASTWARD OVER EAST TEXAS. THE HRRR MODEL HAS BEEN PERFORMING WELL
THE PAST FEW DAYS AND WILL LEAN HEAVILY TOWARDS THIS MODEL FOR
THE RAIN FORECAST FOR TODAY. THE HRRR MODEL EXPANDS THE
MISSISSIPPI CONVECTION EASTWARD LATER THIS MORNING AND BRINGS A
BAND OF CONVECTION INTO WEST ALABAMA AROUND NOON TODAY. LIKE
PREVIOUS DAYS..THE CONVECTIVE BAND SPREADS EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND UPTICKS IN INTENSITY AS IT
ENCOUNTERS A MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS. THE CONVECTION WILL MOSTLY BE
EAST OF ALABAMA BY SUNSET AND DO NOT EXPECT MUCH COVERAGE AFTER 9
PM THIS EVENING. BY THURSDAY THE UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW BECOMES
LESS PRONOUNCED AND THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE MORE DIURNAL AND LESS
ORGANIZED.

ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES...AND DRIER MID LEVEL AIR WORKS INTO SOUTHEAST ALABAMA.
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES. A SHORT WAVE TROF MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY REGION ON SATURDAY WILL PUSH A TROF AXIS INTO TENNESSEE.
THIS TROF AXIS WILL LIKELY STALL OUT JUST NORTH OF ALABAMA AS IT
ENCOUNTERS THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE. A SHORT WAVE TROF OVER TEXAS WILL
HELP PULL GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND HELP ERODE
THE DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHEAST RIDGE. EXPECT SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     66  84  66  84  65 /  30  40  20  30  20
ANNISTON    67  84  67  85  65 /  30  40  20  30  20
BIRMINGHAM  68  84  68  85  67 /  30  40  20  30  20
TUSCALOOSA  67  86  68  87  67 /  30  40  20  30  20
CALERA      68  84  67  85  66 /  30  40  20  30  20
AUBURN      65  83  66  84  65 /  30  50  20  20  10
MONTGOMERY  68  87  68  88  67 /  40  50  20  30  10
TROY        67  86  67  87  65 /  30  50  20  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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