Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 021747
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1247 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CENTRAL ALABAMA IS WEDGED IN BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS OF INTEREST AT
THE CURRENT TIME. THE FIRST FEATURE IS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA
CURRENTLY SPINNING ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA THAT`S PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE NEXT FEATURE IS THE WEAKNESS AT
500MB THAT`S CURRENTLY OFF TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE ARKLATEX. THAT
WEAKNESS AT 500MB IS HELPING TO SPREAD A GOOD AMOUNT OF HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A GOOD AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CURRENTLY EXISTS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
DEWPOINTS OBSERVED AREAWIDE. MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES ARE PLENTIFUL ACCORDING
TO VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WHICH HAS ALLOWED FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP NOW THAT WE`VE HEATED PAST THE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE. RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT WE`VE ALREADY ACHIEVED
ABOUT 3000 J/KG OF SB CAPE WITH THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
CURRENTLY IN PLACE. SINCE THE LFC HEIGHTS ARE ALSO FAIRLY LOW
(BETWEEN 2 AND 4K FEET) WE SHOULD SEE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE I-20 CORRIDOR. THEREFORE...POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD TO
SCATTERED IN THOSE AREAS AND ISOLATED STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR
NORTHERN COUNTIES. IN THIS MORNING`S SOUNDING...THERE IS A GOOD
BIT OF DRY AIR ALOFT WHICH CAN LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF GUSTY
WINDS MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITHIN THUNDERSTORM DOWNDRAFTS.
SO...ANY STORM THIS AFTERNOON WILL HAVE GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40MPH.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO PREVENT INCLUDING
VCTS IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. HAVE INSTEAD OPTED TO GO WITH VCSH
FOR MOST LOCATIONS AS ALL DEVELOPMENT DOES NOT CONTAIN LIGHTNING
AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR
POSSIBLE AMENDMENTS IF THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE INCREASES. MAINLY
HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH NO LOW
CIG IMPACTS ANTICIPATED.

56/GDG

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLD VALUES. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME.

87

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  89  69  90  69 /  10  10  10  10  20
ANNISTON    71  90  70  91  69 /  10  20  10  10  20
BIRMINGHAM  73  90  72  91  71 /  10  20  10  10  20
TUSCALOOSA  73  93  73  94  72 /  10  20  10  10  10
CALERA      73  89  72  91  71 /  10  20  10  10  20
AUBURN      73  89  71  90  71 /  20  30  20  20  20
MONTGOMERY  74  93  73  94  73 /  20  30  20  20  20
TROY        73  91  70  93  71 /  20  30  20  30  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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