


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
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468 FXUS64 KBRO 181127 AAC AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 627 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 619 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 * Life-threatening rip currents return Monday and again Thursday into Friday. * Beaches may narrow during high tide cycles next week. * Above normal temperatures continue with record or near record warmth across the Rio Grande Valley Sunday into Tuesday and again on Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1041 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 A potent surface low deepens across the Southern Plains over the weekend and drags a frontal boundary southward, potentially into Deep South Texas by Sunday afternoon. Expect a breezy Saturday followed by a comfortable but breezy Sunday with a northeasterly wind shift and little else. Temperatures will not drop with this front and POPs remain very low, around 15 percent or less. The subtropical ridge then returns through next week, with a surface high gradually working eastward, maintaining generally dry conditions through the period for most locations with a very low, less than 15 percent, rain chance along the sea breeze Wednesday through Friday. Above normal temperatures continue through the period, approaching record highs across the RGV Sunday through Tuesday and again on Thursday, especially at BRO. There is a moderate (level 2 of 4) Heat Risk Saturday, Sunday, and Tuesday along the Rio Grande. An elevated rip current risk returns Sunday through Monday and again Thursday into Friday. Long period swell may also help narrow beaches along high tide cycles early to mid next week as astronomical tides begin to increase. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 619 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 VFR conditions are expected to continue today across Deep South Texas. Light and variable winds this morning will give way to southeasterly winds at around 10 knots by late morning. Mostly sunny skies are expected through the afternoon. Light and variable winds and clear skies are expected to return tonight, and could support the development of some fog across the region. Confidence in visibility reductions at any of the airfields is too low to include in the TAFs at this time, however the possibility for MVFR to IFR visibilities developing around sunrise Sunday cannot be ruled out. && .MARINE... Issued at 1041 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 The pressure gradient strengthens a little along the coast Saturday before diminishing on Sunday ahead of a weak frontal boundary with breezy northeasterly winds Sunday afternoon and evening. Brief SCEC conditions are possible across the bay and nearshore waters each afternoon Saturday and Sunday. There is a low to medium chance of showers and thunderstorms offshore Sunday. Southeasterly flow returns next week with a long period easterly swell as high pressure persists across the northern Gulf. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 1041 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 Daily record high temperatures may be approached Sunday through Tuesday and again on Thursday across the Rio Grande Valley, especially Sunday and Tuesday in Brownsville and Tuesday in McAllen. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 92 75 93 72 / 0 0 20 0 HARLINGEN 95 71 94 67 / 0 0 10 0 MCALLEN 98 75 98 71 / 0 0 10 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 98 71 98 65 / 0 0 10 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 87 79 86 77 / 0 0 20 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 90 74 89 72 / 0 0 10 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...56 LONG TERM....56 AVIATION...60-BE