264
FXUS64 KBRO 081148 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
548 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 537 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

- Near to record high temperatures expected on Saturday, with
  below normal temperatures next week following a strong cold
  front Sunday.

- A Fire Weather Watch is in effect 15Z Sunday through 03Z Monday
  for all of Deep South Texas due to elevated wind speeds and low
  relative humidities behind the front.

- Small Craft Advisories with near gale force wind gusts, high
  surf, coastal flooding, life-threatening rip currents, and
  coastal Wind Advisories are all possible following the frontal
  passage.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1022 PM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

A deep trough settles in across the Great Lakes and most of the
CONUS this weekend, kicking the 500mb ridge out over Baja
California through next week. At the surface, a cold Canadian air
mass drops south through the Plains and into the Southeast US,
plowing a cold front through Deep South Texas on Sunday with the
coldest air of the season so far. Moisture is very limited along
the frontal boundary, keeping POPs low, to less than 10 percent
inland and around 20 percent or less across offshore waters.

Expect above normal temperatures, with near to record highs
Saturday, prior to the front and below normal temperatures Sunday
afternoon through Tuesday morning. Under clear skies and with
light winds, radiational cooling could drop Tuesday morning lows
into the 30s across the ranchlands and into the low 40s across the
RGV. The NAM generally handles these air masses very well, and
will continue to be monitored over the next couple of days to fine
tune deterministic lows. As winds turn southerly Tuesday into
Wednesday, and moisture increases, temperatures across the CWA
once again bounce above normal through the remainder of the week,
with a near zero chance of rain into next weekend.

Very dry air arriving behind the front will bring elevated to
critical fire weather across Deep South Texas Sunday into Monday.
Elevated surf and long-period swell will increase the threat of
life-threatening rip currents Sunday into Tuesday, with a High
Surf Advisory and Coastal Flood Statement potentially needed. With
light winds forecast, do not expect any Cold Weather Advisories
for wind chill issues Tuesday morning.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 537 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

Areas of fog/MIFG have develop across portions of Deep South
Texas early this morning. MVFR/LIFR visibilities are impacting
local area aerodromes, especially at HRL/BRO. The fog is expected
to lift around 14Z. VFR conditions will prevail today into
tonight. However, another round of fog with MVFR/LIFR visibilities
will develop late in the period, mainly after 07Z Sunday. Light
and variable winds early this morning will become south-southeast
later this morning into the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1022 PM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

Favorable marine conditions persist through Saturday night. A
strong cold front arrives Sunday with Small Craft Advisory
conditions and gusts to near gale force into Sunday night. SCA to
SCEC conditions persist into Monday night. Southeasterly winds
return Tuesday with the pressure gradient strengthening into
Wednesday, increasing southerly winds and briefly bringing back
SCEC to SCA conditions. Marine conditions improve late week into
next weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1022 PM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

A Fire Weather Watch is in effect on Sunday and a Fire Danger
Statement or Red Flag Warning may be needed. Relative humidity
values drop Sunday afternoon behind the cold front into the teens
across Zapata, Jim Hogg, and Brooks counties, low to mid 20s
across Starr and Hidalgo counties, and mid 30s to mid 40s across
coastal counties. At the same time, northeasterly 20 foot winds
top 15 mph, with gusts to 25-30 mph, driving elevated to critical
fire weather conditions Sunday.

By Monday, even drier air arrives, with humidity values ranging
from the low teens in Zapata and Jim Hogg to 25 percent in Kenedy,
Willacy, and western Cameron counties. Winds are expected to be
lighter on Monday, with 20 foot winds above 15 mph generally along
and east of I-69C/US77. A Fire Weather Watch and ultimately Fire
Danger Statement or Red Flag Warning may be needed Monday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1022 PM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

Daily record high temperatures may be approached Saturday across
the Rio Grande Valley. HRL is forecast to reach 93 degrees, which
would top the record of 92 last set in 2011. MFE is forecast to
reach 95 degrees, which would tie the record. BRO is forecast to
reach 93 degrees, just falling shy of the 1989 record of 95
degrees.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             92  69  82  58 /   0   0  10   0
HARLINGEN               94  64  82  49 /   0   0  10   0
MCALLEN                 95  67  84  52 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         95  62  83  50 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      84  73  80  60 /   0   0  10   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     90  67  81  57 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
     for TXZ248>255-351-353>355-451-454-455.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56-Hallman
LONG TERM....56-Hallman
AVIATION...63-KC