468
FXUS64 KBRO 181127 AAC
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
627 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 619 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

* Life-threatening rip currents return Monday and again Thursday
  into Friday.

* Beaches may narrow during high tide cycles next week.

* Above normal temperatures continue with record or near record
  warmth across the Rio Grande Valley Sunday into Tuesday and
  again on Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1041 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

A potent surface low deepens across the Southern Plains over the
weekend and drags a frontal boundary southward, potentially into
Deep South Texas by Sunday afternoon. Expect a breezy Saturday
followed by a comfortable but breezy Sunday with a northeasterly
wind shift and little else. Temperatures will not drop with this
front and POPs remain very low, around 15 percent or less. The
subtropical ridge then returns through next week, with a surface
high gradually working eastward, maintaining generally dry
conditions through the period for most locations with a very low,
less than 15 percent, rain chance along the sea breeze Wednesday
through Friday.

Above normal temperatures continue through the period,
approaching record highs across the RGV Sunday through Tuesday and
again on Thursday, especially at BRO. There is a moderate (level
2 of 4) Heat Risk Saturday, Sunday, and Tuesday along the Rio
Grande.

An elevated rip current risk returns Sunday through Monday and
again Thursday into Friday. Long period swell may also help narrow
beaches along high tide cycles early to mid next week as
astronomical tides begin to increase.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 619 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

VFR conditions are expected to continue today across Deep South
Texas. Light and variable winds this morning will give way to
southeasterly winds at around 10 knots by late morning. Mostly
sunny skies are expected through the afternoon. Light and variable
winds and clear skies are expected to return tonight, and could
support the development of some fog across the region. Confidence
in visibility reductions at any of the airfields is too low to
include in the TAFs at this time, however the possibility for
MVFR to IFR visibilities developing around sunrise Sunday cannot
be ruled out.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1041 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

The pressure gradient strengthens a little along the coast
Saturday before diminishing on Sunday ahead of a weak frontal
boundary with breezy northeasterly winds Sunday afternoon and
evening. Brief SCEC conditions are possible across the bay and
nearshore waters each afternoon Saturday and Sunday. There is a
low to medium chance of showers and thunderstorms offshore Sunday.
Southeasterly flow returns next week with a long period easterly
swell as high pressure persists across the northern Gulf.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1041 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Daily record high temperatures may be approached Sunday through
Tuesday and again on Thursday across the Rio Grande Valley,
especially Sunday and Tuesday in Brownsville and Tuesday in
McAllen.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             92  75  93  72 /   0   0  20   0
HARLINGEN               95  71  94  67 /   0   0  10   0
MCALLEN                 98  75  98  71 /   0   0  10   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         98  71  98  65 /   0   0  10   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      87  79  86  77 /   0   0  20   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     90  74  89  72 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56
LONG TERM....56
AVIATION...60-BE