


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
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913 FXUS61 KBTV 131037 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 637 AM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A coastal low will continue to bring overcast skies and chances of rain and breezy winds to the region today, with precipitation tapering off for Tuesday. Cool and dry conditions will continue through the remainder of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 237 AM EDT Monday...The main story for today will continue to be the coastal low moving northward, bringing plenty of cloud cover and chances for rain. The system has been slow to move and has plenty of drier air to overcome, with precipitation just starting to reach the ground across southern Vermont, where steadier precipitation can be expected as the day progresses. The precipitation gradient across the region continues to tighten, with southern Vermont seeing about 0.75 inches to around and inch of rain while northern locations will likely miss out completely. High temperatures today will be on the cooler side, with highs generally in the 50s today under the overcast skies. Heading into tonight, precipitation will continue to shift eastward out of the area. Overnight lows tonight will generally be in the upper 30s and 40s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 237 AM EDT Monday...Although a few lingering showers cannot be ruled out, drier conditions are expected throughout the day Tuesday. Seasonable temperatures are expected, with highs climbing into the upper 50s and lower 60s with plenty of lingering cloud cover. Winds will be relatively light during the day Tuesday, but overnight into Wednesday a period of gusty northerly winds will be possible, especially on Lake Champlain as a moisture-starved front approaches the region. Temperatures will be much cooler for Wednesday under brisk northerly flow, with highs only climbing onto the 40s and low 50s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 218 AM EDT Monday...Main concern for long term wl be the potential for near critical fire wx conditions on Thursday, followed by more unsettled wx next weekend. Little change in our thinking for Thursday with brisk northerly flow of 10 to 20 mph with localized gusts 20 to 25 mph possible in aligned north to south valleys (Champlain Valley) and exposed midslopes/ridges. Sounding profiles suggest some mixing of drier air near 850mb to support min rh`s near critical fire wx thresholds. Still some spread in how low rh`s get, because of cool thermal profiles and sfc temps only in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Next system approaches our cwa late Sat into Sunday with a round of rain showers likely. Both GFS/ECMWF show good dynamics associated with this deepening mid/upper lvl trof and sfc cold frnt, but still have some timing difference. Given this uncertainty have continued with NBM pops which brings a period of likely pops on Sunday. Warm southerly flow ahead of this system wl produce above normal temps on Sat/Saturday night, before cooler air arrives for early next week. Highs well into the 60s are likely on Sat with lows only in the mid 40s to mid 50s Saturday night with increasing southerly winds. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Through 12Z Tuesday...Areas of low level wind shear associated with 30 to 45 knot east wind at 1500 to 4000 feet above ground level continues to impact our taf sites this morning, along with areas of turbulence. The primary challenge today into tonight will be occasional showers and lowering cigs, especially toward evening. Thinking VFR cigs will lower to MVFR by this evening with potential for intervals of IFR cigs at MPV/SLK and RUT toward 06z. Elsewhere, VFR cigs become MVFR by mid evening with mostly VFR vis, even in pockets of rain showers. Easterly winds 5 to 10 knots with gusts up to 20 knots possible at Rutland, will slowly weaken this aftn and become from the north/northeast by evening. This northerly winds should help to lower cigs, especially given lift condensation levels lowering to 1000 to 1500 feet by evening at MPV/RUT and SLK. Outlook... Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Kremer NEAR TERM...Kremer SHORT TERM...Kremer LONG TERM...Taber AVIATION...Taber