143
FXUS61 KBUF 072000
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
300 PM EST Fri Nov 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Another round of showers will race east across the area this
afternoon along with some gusty winds well ahead of an
approaching cold front. The cold front crosses the area tonight
with scattered showers continuing through much of the night.
Other than a few lingering light showers east of the lakes
Saturday morning, high pressure will briefly build into the area
providing a mainly dry and seasonably cool day. Another area of
low pressure will then bring a return to more active weather
later Saturday night and Sunday, with rain showers changing over
to snow showers later Sunday and Sunday night, followed by a
period of accumulating lake snows east and southeast of the
lakes for the first portion of the new work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Low pressure will track across central Ontario this afternoon and
into central Quebec tonight. An area of showers well ahead of an
attendant cold front will cross the area through late this
afternoon. While the strongest winds have mostly already occurred,
gusty winds will continue through the rest of the afternoon, but
will start to relax some as the main line of showers exits east of
the area.

Actual cold front will cross the area tonight, with additional
showers likely. However, deeper moisture will have moved east of the
area, so expecting mainly scattered light showers through the
overnight...with more numerous showers possible across areas
downwind of the lakes and across upslope terrain areas. As the
better forcing pushes east and weak high pressure over the upper
Great Lakes tries to ridge southeast into our area, expect shower
coverage to start to taper off late tonight.

Other than a few lingering light showers east of the lakes Saturday
morning, aforementioned high pressure building in from the upper
Great Lakes will provide a mainly dry, but cool day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A closed mid-level low centered over northern Ontario, will allow a
couple of shortwave troughs to rotate around it, with the second of
the shortwaves being more potent and causing the mid-level low to
elongate southward across the upper Great Lakes and push the trough
axis further south across the Mississippi Valley. This trough/mid-
level low will then dig southeast towards Indiana and Ohio through
Sunday and Sunday night, before lifting northeast towards the lower
Great Lakes and Northeast Monday and Monday night, and further north
into eastern Canada Tuesday. Meanwhile, at the surface a clipper
system will drop southeast across the upper Midwest Saturday night,
reaching as far south as Indiana, before heading northeast across
Pennsylvania and New York towards the Northeast Sunday through
Monday and further northeast into the Canadian Maritimes Tuesday.

Looking further into the details, a warm front will approach New
York State from the south Saturday night into Sunday, ushering in
widespread rain showers to spread from south to north. Then, as the
low rides further north across Pennsylvania and New York State,
widespread showers will continue across the region Sunday, placing
the deformation band across western New York. It is at this point in
the forecast where forecast uncertainty is elevated as the track of
the low continues to have model discrepancies. This not only impacts
the placement of the heavier precipitation, but also the
temperatures aloft. A western more track will favor a warmer
solution supporting mostly rain. However, an eastern more track
(such as having the low pass across eastern New York, will favor a
cold air mass to arrive earlier, helping to transition rain over to
snow. If this does come into fruition, an inch or two of snow
accumulation would be possible, mainly accumulating on grassy or
elevated surfaces. As of current, this forecast iteration favors a
warmer solution, supporting mostly rain throughout Sunday.

Colder air will then arrive Sunday evening and night, supporting a
transition to a rain snow mix ahead of sunset and all snow there
after. As the low exits northeast Sunday night, wrap around showers
will become lake enhanced due to the quick shot of colder air
(around -6C at 850mb) to advect into the region. Temperatures at
850mb will continue to tumble, reaching a minima of -10C at 850mb by
Monday night where it will then remain through Tuesday. Overall,
expect lake enhanced snow showers to transition to pure lake effect
snow by Monday morning. Initially northwest flow Monday will back to
westerly by Monday night and remain westerly through Tuesday,
therefore expect tea kettle like snow bands (multiple bands of snow)
southeast of Lakes Erie and Lake Ontario Monday, mainly impacting
the Chautauqua Ridge and areas southeast of Lake Ontario from
Rochester towards I-81. Bands will then shift northerly Monday
evening to be east of both lakes due to the wind shift. Main areas
of concern Monday night through Tuesday lies east of Lake Ontario
across the Tug Hill and east of Lake Erie mainly across the
Chautauqua Ridge. While snowfall accumulations should be LESS THAN
WARNING AMOUNTS, multiple inches of snow is possible.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Deep troughing will remain overhead of much of the eastern half of
the CONUS Tuesday through Friday, as yet another shortwave trough
dives southeast across Ontario, Canada and pivots across the Great
Lakes, resulting in another clipper like system to traverse the
Great Lakes. This being said, another active week of weather looks
to be gracing western and north central New York.

Ongoing, lake effect precipitation Tuesday night will linger through
Tuesday night, as the next system approaches the region, before
being reinvigorated Wednesday with the passage of the next system
and then lasting throughout the remainder of the week. Temperatures
at 850mb will gradually warm up to -2C Wednesday, before tumbling
back down towards -5/-6C Thursday and Friday. What this boils down
to, is lake effect snow will transition to lake effect rain
Wednesday due to the warming temperatures aloft. Another transition
back to snow will be likely in the wake of the system later in the
week.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Showers have moved into western NY, along with MVFR conditions for
the far western NY terminals. This line of showers, well in advance
of an approaching cold front, will continue to race east across the
remainder of the area through the afternoon. Expect deteriorating
flight conditions to follow suit with MVFR reaching central and
eastern portions of the area by late this afternoon. A period of IFR
is possible across the Southern Tier (KJHW) late this afternoon into
this evening. Otherwise, gusty winds (S to SW 20-30 knots, isolated
35 knots) will continue through the afternoon, with the strongest
winds ahead of the line of showers, then slowly coming down through
the remainder of the day into this evening.

Cold front will cross the area tonight with scattered showers
continuing into the overnight, especially in areas of lake enhanced
and upslope showers. Winds will continue to weaken through the
night. Expect mainly MVFR CIGS at the terminals through the
overnight hours, with low VFR (040 kft) possible at times across the
Niagara Frontier (KBUF/KIAG) second half of tonight as some low
level drier air tries to work in from the west.

Other than a few lingering light showers east of the lakes Saturday
morning, high pressure building in from the upper Great Lakes will
provide mainly dry weather. Otherwise, mainly MVFR to low VFR is
expected to linger through the end of the TAF period. Looking a bit
beyond the TAF period, higher end VFR will be possible across the
lower terrain of the North Country (KART) away from northwesterly
flow lake induced clouds, which will be tough to erode south of the
lakes.

Outlook...

Saturday night...IFR/MVFR with rain and higher elevation rain/snow
showers developing.

Sunday...Restrictions likely with widespread rain showers, mixing
with/changing to snow and diminishing in coverage Sunday night.

Monday and Tuesday...Lake effect snow showers downwind of the lakes
with localized IFR, otherwise scattered snow showers and VFR/MVFR.

Wednesday...MVFR/IFR with rain and snow showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Slowly deepening low pressure will make its way into central Quebec
tonight. This has brought the next round of strong winds on the
lakes with Small Craft Advisories in place as outlined below. South
to southwest winds will veer west then northwest tonight, while also
starting to weaken from west to east through the second half of
tonight into early Saturday following the passage of this system`s
trailing cold front.

Expect a brief window of lower winds and waves later Saturday
and Saturday night, before east to northeast winds ramp up,
with the next round of small craft headlines likely for at least
some portions of both lakes starting on Sunday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for LEZ040-
         041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for
         LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EST Saturday for
         LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...EAJ
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM