833
FXUS61 KBUF 301912
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
212 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A mix of rain and wet snow will continue this afternoon, with snow
favored across higher terrain and rain for lower elevations. It will
be very windy, especially northeast of Lake Erie. Colder air will
move back into the region tonight, with a brief period of lake
effect snow and minor accumulations east and southeast of Lake Erie
and Lake Ontario. Lake effect snow will end by Monday morning as
high pressure builds into the eastern Great Lakes. Another low
pressure system will then pass south of the area later Monday night
and Tuesday, with widespread light snow and minor accumulations
expected across most of the region. Below average temperatures and
daily snow chances will continue through the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
This afternoon, warm advection and isentropic upglide driven
precipitation will move off to the northeast, wind one more brief
band of showers along and eastward advancing cold front moving
rapidly from west to east across the area. The arrival of a brief
thermal ridge just ahead of the cold front, with an added boost of
SSW downslope flow, will allow for mostly rain at lower elevations
with wet snow across higher terrain. Additional snow accumulations
through the rest of the daylight hours will be mainly across the Tug
Hill Plateau where surface temperatures remain colder, and upslope
flow enhances QPF. Expect another 2-4" across the Tug Hill this
afternoon, with little or no accumulation for surrounding lower
elevations.

SSW downslope winds along the Lake Erie shore will quickly
transition to a brief surge of stronger post-frontal SW winds over
and northeast of Lake Erie this afternoon and early evening, with
peak gusts likely reaching around 50 mph across the Niagara Frontier
and Lake Erie shore. Elsewhere, expect gusts of 30-40 mph this
afternoon and early evening.

A brief period of lake effect will develop tonight behind this
system in a quickly veering wind regime. The setup is brief, with
dry air and subsidence rapidly arriving late tonight and Monday
morning as high pressure builds into the eastern Great Lakes.

Off Lake Erie...

Initial band development late this afternoon will be across the
Niagara Frontier and Buffalo area as a rain/snow mix. This band will
move very rapidly southward to the Southern Tier this evening, only
lasting for an hour or two at any given location. Precipitation will
quickly change back to all snow, but the rapid southward movement
wil limit accumulations to an inch or so for lower elevations, and 2-
3" for the higher terrain east of Lake Erie and well south of
Buffalo. A few locations along the Chautauqua Ridge may pick up
close to 4", especially in southwest Chautauqua County.

Off Lake Ontario...

Initial band development northeast of the Lake over Jefferson County
this evening will sweep rapidly south across the Tug Hill region
overnight. This will produce another 1-3" of accumulation inland
from the immediate Lake Ontario shore, highest across the Tug Hill
Plateau.

Another band of snow from Georgian Bay will briefly develop
southeast of Lake Ontario tonight, with the most likely band
location stretching from between BUF/ROC southeastward into the
western Finger Lakes. This will produce localized dusting to 1"
accumulations.

All of the lake effect will quickly end early Monday morning as high
pressure builds into the area, with dry weather for the rest of the
day and rapidly diminishing winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Though not as aligned as one would like to see, models are showing a
somewhat better consensus on the track of a large coastal low that
will impact the lower Great Lakes and Northeast Monday night through
Tuesday night, with impacts to our area mainly confined to the
second half of Monday night through the first half Tuesday.

Developing area of low pressure will move from the Gulf coast into
the Carolinas Monday night, then continue to deepen while exiting
northeast off the Mid Atlantic coast Tuesday. Coastal low will
strengthen further (possibly bombing out) Tuesday night while moving
northeast off the New England coast...just exactly how close to
coast is still somewhat in question. That said, confidence is
growing that this system will stay just far enough south and east of
western and northcentral NY to spare our area from the heaviest
snows, although accumulating snows are likely, with the greatest
potential for near advisory (>= 4") amounts across our southeastern
areas. As mentioned above, main timeframe for accumulating snowfall
will be the second half of Monday night through the first half of
Tuesday, with impacts possible for the Tuesday morning commute.

As the coast low pulls away, our attention will turn to a strong
cold front moving through the upper Great Lakes later Tuesday night
and Wednesday. Winds will back from northwest to southwest Tuesday
night through Wednesday, with the potential for a weak band of lake
effect snow to sweep from south to north off both lakes later
Tuesday night through the day Wednesday with only minor
accumulations expected with the transient nature of the bands and
also being within a weak WAA pattern ahead of the approaching cold
front.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Strong cold front plows across the lower Great Lakes Wednesday night
ushering in much colder air along with a round of mainly light
snows, although some moderate lake enhanced snows will be possible
east and northeast of the lakes. Winds will veer west and northwest
Thursday with west-northwest to northwest flow lake effect snow
showers east and southeast of the lakes Thursday, tending to weaken
through the afternoon as high pressure approaches from the west.

High pressure will slide over or just south of the region Thursday
night, then southeast of the area on Friday bringing a period of
mainly dry weather to finish out the work week. There may be a
period of localized light lake effect snow showers sweeping from
south to north Thursday night off both lakes as winds back with
respect to the center of the high.

Dry weather may persist into the start of Friday night as high
pressure departs east off the Atlantic Coast. Otherwise, model
guidance continues to diverge on the timing, track, and strength of
a couple systems that will likely impact the region in some form
over the weekend. Thus, will maintain the Chc to low-end Lkly PoPS
advertised by the NBM.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Warm frontal precipitation east of Lake Ontario will continue to
push off to the northeast this afternoon, with one more band of
showers along the cold front surging rapidly east across the area. A
brief push of warmer air just ahead of the cold front will allow
lower elevations to see mainly rain, with wet snow favored across
higher terrain where temperatures are several degrees colder. Expect
VFR/MVFR VSBY in the rain, and IFR in snow for the rest of the
afternoon. CIGS will continue to run MVFR in most areas.

It will be quite windy this afternoon and evening, especially over
and northeast of Lake Erie where gusts will exceed 40 knots at times
including KBUF and KIAG. Gusts elsewhere will be in the 25-35 knot
range. Winds will diminish later this evening.

A brief period of lake effect will develop behind the cold front.
Off Lake Erie, initial development northeast of the lake including
KBUF and KIAG will be a rain/snow mix, changing to all snow this
evening as the band moves very rapidly south towards KJHW and
weakens overnight. This band of snow will produce a brief 1-2 hour
period of IFR/LIFR conditions in moderate snow on its way south.
Expect a similar trend a few hours later off Lake Ontario, with a
band of rain/snow mix near and north of KART this evening changing
to all snow and moving rapidly south across the Tug Hill region
overnight with a brief period of IFR/LIFR conditions. A band of snow
off Georgian Bay will briefly develop tonight somewhere between KBUF
and KROC extending down into the western Finger Lakes with local
IFR. Areas of MVFR CIGS in lake effect clouds will continue tonight.

Monday, any remaining lake effect flurries southeast of the lakes
will quickly end in the morning, leaving VFR to prevail for the rest
of the day with much less wind as high pressure builds into the
eastern Great Lakes.

Outlook...

Late Monday night through Tuesday...IFR in widespread light snow,
tapering off late.

Wednesday...Mainly VFR with a chance of light snow showers.

Wednesday night through Thursday...IFR in snow, especially
east/northeast of the lakes. Improving later Thursday.

Friday...Mainly VFR with a chance of light snow showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Low pressure passing north of Lake Ontario this evening will
continue to produce a brief period of southwest gales on Lake Erie
and Lake Ontario. Winds will veer to the northwest and diminish
overnight, further diminishing Monday as high pressure briefly
builds over the lower Great Lakes.

The next round of elevated winds will arrive Wednesday through
Thursday as a cold front crosses the lower Great Lakes, with high
end Small Craft Advisory conditions likely, with a small chance of
low end gales.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Wind Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for NYZ001-002-
     010>012-019-085.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for NYZ008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LEZ020.
         Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Monday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for LOZ030.
         Gale Warning until 4 AM EST Monday for LOZ042>045-062>065.
         Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for SLZ022.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...Hitchcock