330
FXUS65 KBYZ 062106
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
206 PM MST Sat Dec 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periods of heavy snow continue to impact the Beartooth Absaroka
  and Crazy Mountains through this evening.

- Another band of light snow (0-2 inches) moves across the region
  tonight. Heaviest amounts from northern Rosebud to Carter
  Counties.

- A period of strong southwest to west winds expected along the
  western foothills Monday night through Tuesday morning. Gusts in
  excess of 60 mph are likely.

- Warmer than normal temperatures Sunday through Wednesday.

- Next shot of colder air could arrive next Thursday or Friday,
  but this is highly uncertain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Through Sunday night...

High pressure from northeast Montana will slowly move into the
region this evening. There will be a strong temperature gradient
across the region with 20s F for locations west of Billings and
single digits and teens for locations east of Billings. Temperatures
will then warm overnight as a warm front pushes east. Scattered
energy and strong maximum 2-6 km lapse rates will lead to
continued snow showers through the evening along the stationary
front. Hi- Res models are showing that a few J/kg of CAPE will be
a possibility this afternoon creating the potential for brief
heavy snow for locations under banding.

This evening and overnight, a strip of PV will move across eastern
Montana. This will create a band of light snow moving through
southeastern Montana along the eastward pushing warm front. 12Z HREF
is indicating snow amounts will remain below 3 inches with most
locations getting 0-2 inches of additional snowfall from this
band. The HREF is indicating the best chances (20-50%) for getting
greater than 1 inch of snowfall is from northern Rosebud
southeast through Carter County. Winds are not expected to be much
of a factor with this frontal passage across the lower elevations
as mixed layers will be shallow and winds within these layers
weak. Most locations can expect gusts into the 20s mph. Winds will
be stronger along the western foothills with wind gusts near 40
mph expected for Big Timber and Harlowton this evening through
Sunday morning.

Temperatures will continue to warm Sunday under increasing upper
level heights and downsloping 700 mb winds. High temperatures will
be in the high 30s to low 40s F for most locations. Torgerson

Monday through Friday...

Confidence continues to increase for a period of strong winds
beginning Monday afternoon and continuing through Tuesday, as wind
aloft and pressure gradients increase in response to an approaching
weather system. Winds will increase initially from Big Timber to
Harlowton Monday afternoon, before gradients become more oriented
from the southwest to northeast, favoring Livingston and Nye by
Monday night. KIDA-KLWT pressure gradients could get as high as 20
mb Monday night into Tuesday morning. An early morning frontal
passage will spread strong west winds to Big Timber and Harlowton
and across the rest of the area. Overall, the chances of seeing 60+
mph gusts at all of the foothill locations is currently around 90%.
700mb winds of around 50 kts from Big Timber north through Harlowton
Monday afternoon, increases to 70-85 kts Monday night over the
western foothills, suggesting a good chance of 70+ mph gusts
especially in the gap areas. The probability of 75 mph gusts at
Livingston and Nye is currently near 50%. Westerly wind gusts of 40-
60 mph spread east of the foothills on Tuesday. Wind highlites will
likely be needed along the western foothills and for portions of the
plains. If you have travel plans please stay alert for a period of
dangerous crosswinds on I-90 and US-191! The potential for another
period of strong winds over the western foothills arrives on
Wednesday as a Pacific wave moves through the region.

Along with the wind, moist westerly flow into the western mountains
will bring a prolonged period of snow to the western aspects, and
the potential for several inches of snow. Occasional periods of rain
showers will be found over the lower elevations. Temperatures in the
40s to near 50 degrees are forecast Monday through Wednesday. There
is uncertainty heading towards the latter part of the week with
regards to a cold push moving into the area from the
north/northeast. There remains a lot of spread in temperatures, with
some ensembles suggesting high temperatures ranging anywhere from
the single digits to 40s. Any backdoor cold fronts will likely be
accompanied by periods of overrunning snow. STP


.AVIATION...

Scattered snow showers will continue to move through the region
through this evening. IFR conditions will be common under these bands
of snow. Another band of snow starts to move west to east across
the region around 00z before exiting into the Dakotas around 15Z
Sunday. MVFR and IFR conditions will be common with this band.
Wind gusts over the western foothills including K6S0 and K3HT will
increase to near 40 kts this evening, continuing through around
21Z Sunday. Torgerson


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 022/040 030/044 038/049 031/044 021/027 010/021 013/039
    40/B    00/N    14/R    57/O    55/S    43/S    21/B
LVM 028/041 032/046 039/049 032/047 027/037 022/041 025/052
    51/N    21/N    36/O    68/O    65/O    43/O    11/B
HDN 017/041 025/045 034/051 027/043 017/026 006/020 009/035
    51/B    10/B    35/R    57/O    66/S    53/S    21/B
MLS 009/036 021/042 032/047 022/037 011/017 000/011 002/027
    61/B    00/B    43/O    25/O    53/S    32/S    31/B
4BQ 016/039 024/044 033/050 025/039 017/024 005/017 007/034
    51/B    00/B    23/R    35/O    53/S    32/S    21/B
BHK 004/033 016/041 029/044 014/032 007/017 905/009 903/023
    66/J    00/N    44/R    13/S    52/S    31/E    21/E
SHR 020/042 021/047 030/052 024/044 019/029 009/028 012/044
    40/B    00/B    15/R    57/O    65/S    42/S    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Winter Storm Warning in effect until midnight MST tonight FOR
      ZONES 67-68.
     Winter Weather Advisory in effect until 5 PM MST this
      afternoon FOR ZONE 171.
WY...Winter Weather Advisory in effect until 5 PM MST this
      afternoon FOR ZONE 198.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings