Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
393 FXUS62 KCAE 221650 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 1150 AM EST Sat Nov 22 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Isolated showers are possible this afternoon and evening ahead of an approaching cold front that will pass through the region. Behind the front, temperatures will cool down, but still remain above normal through the middle of the week. Another stronger front will move through by Thanksgiving, bringing additional rain chances and much colder temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Key message(s): - Isolated light rain showers, and even a rumble of thunder, will remain possible through this evening. - Mild temperatures continue through tonight. Cold front is still just west of the mountains early this afternoon. This front will continue to track eastward through this evening. Ahead of it, a few isolated showers are expected to move into the CSRA through the early afternoon hours, then most guidance weakens that activity and mostly dry conditions will occur there. Further north, a shortwave will move out of the mountains this afternoon and evening. Guidance is indicating additional isolated showers/storms possible across the Pee Dee and far northern Midlands closer to sunset. That activity will be short lived as it tracks quickly eastward and dry conditions then occur the remainder of the night. Westerly winds will continue to be gusty this afternoon/early evening ahead of the front, then some weakening is expected towards sunset. Some gusts of 20-25 mph will be seen, but conditions will remain below lake wind advisory criteria. Temperatures will be mild this afternoon, getting close to records once again, although cloud cover may be enough to keep readings just below record highs. Overnight lows will remain well above normal, with readings in the middle 50s for most areas. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Key message(s): - Dry and not as warm as high pressure passes to the north. The shortwave trough will pass to our east Sunday morning with northwesterly flow aloft as a ridge builds in from the west. The ridge axis passes overhead on Monday before the flow turns southwest in advance of the next trough. At the surface, high pressure builds in from the west on Sunday, with the center passing north on Monday and then offshore Monday night. Any lingering clouds clear out Sunday morning in the wake of the cold front with forecast highs in the lower to mid 70s. Monday is cooler due to northeast to east flow at the surface as the aforementioned high passes to the north with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Dry conditions prevail both days but PWATs are expected to rise quickly Monday night ahead of the next storm system. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Key message(s): - Warmer temperatures expected as rain chances return for Tuesday and Wednesday. - Much cooler weather moves in behind the next storm system to close out the extended. The upper ridge axis will be to our east at the start of the period giving the region southwesterly flow aloft. This continues into Wednesday before a potent trough swings through with troughing in place through the remainder of the extended. Meanwhile, surface high pressure continues to move away from the region on Tuesday as an area of low pressure moves northeast towards Lake Superior. This storm system will drag a cold front through the FA late Wednesday or Wednesday night followed by a much cooler and drier air mass and high pressure for Thanksgiving and the remainder of the extended. In terms of the weather during the long term, Tuesday and Wednesday are both warm thanks to southerly flow on Tuesday and southwest winds on Wednesday. Showers will be possible both days, with improving conditions Wednesday night once the cold front crosses through the region. Thanksgiving and Friday are dry but also noticeably colder with below normal temperatures. The cold and dry pattern likely remains in place through the remainder of the extended. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A cold front will be moving towards the region through this afternoon, then will push through this evening and overnight. Ahead of this front, ceilings have come up some late this morning into early afternoon, but still have a mixture of mvfr/vfr cloud conditions across the area. A good amount of cloud cover is still being shown upstream of all taf locations, with mvfr conditions predominant. None of the guidance seems to be handling the lower ceilings. Will be starting off the forecast period with mainly upper end mvfr ceilings at all sites, with improving conditions expected by late afternoon as deeper moisture finally begins to push off to the east and the surface front gets closer. Westerly winds will remain gusty through the late afternoon, with highest gusts between 20-25 knots. Closer to sunset the gusts will diminish. Winds become more light and variable late tonight, then turn more northeasterly around 5 knots Sunday morning as high pressure builds in. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant aviation concerns expected through early next week. By mid-week, another approaching cold front Wednesday into Thursday could bring a return of restrictions. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$