392
FXUS62 KCAE 100527
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1227 AM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Gusty winds are expected through the day and into the evening as
an abnormally cold airmass works into the area. Temperatures are
very likely to drop into the 20s tonight into Tuesday morning.
Well below normal temperatures look increasingly likely early
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Key message(s):

- Isolated showers in the east this evening.

- Gusty winds expected at times tonight.

Cold front is moving into the northwestern part of the CWA
early this evening, and will continue to move through the rest
of the CWA tonight. Expect gusty northwest winds behind the
front, announcing the arrival of an early season modified
arctic airmass. Temperatures will fall steadily all night under
strong cold advection.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- Breezy to windy conditions expected much of Monday as cold air
  pushes into the area.

- A Lake Wind Advisory is in effect Monday and Monday night,
  with some gusts of 35-40 mph possible.

- A Freeze Warning is in effect Monday night and early Tuesday
  for a hard freeze.

A cold couple of days is expected Monday and Tuesday as the
coldest airmass of this young cool season arrives across the
area. The airmass is just ridiculously cool for this time of
year, with 850 hPa temps Monday evening and Monday night the
coldest in the climatology for this time of year per NAEFS. This
will foster near record cold highs on Monday and Tuesday as well
as near record cold lows on Tuesday morning. Additionally,
Monday and Monday evening look breezy to even windy at times.
As the upper low makes its closest approach, intense low-level
flow with increase markedly, with 925 hPa flow increasing to
the 95th to 98th percentile across areas along and south of ~I26
in the forecast area. Considering cold advection will remain
robust during this time period, gusts of 30-35 mph are expected,
with an outside chance at some 40-45 mph gusts across the CSRA.
Looks like the timeframe for peak winds will be between 4p and
11p. Lows on Monday night are expected to fall into the mid to
upper 20s across the forecast area, with record lows possible at
CAE (26F) and AGS (24F). We have issued a Freeze Warning in
advance of this cold airmass. Tuesday looks cold as well but
should be markedly less windy as the surface high pressure
approaches and settles more across the southern forecast area.
Given winds will be lighter Tuesday night (especially early),
blended in cooler guidance to show lows dipping below freezing
across the southern Midlands and CSRA again Tuesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key message(s):

- Temperatures moderating to near average by the end of the
  week.

Breezy conditions are again expected on Wednesday as another
strong low pressure system passes to our north and creates a
tight pressure gradient between it and the high to our south.
Winds may gust 20-25 mph, and we may need another lake wind
advisory on Wednesday. Aside from that, the long term looks
fairly quiet as an amplified and progressive pattern continues
to push across the CONUS. Heights should slowly begin rising on
Thursday, and temperatures should begin rising back towards
normal as a result. Low PWs below half an inch look likely
through next weekend, resulting in dry weather as well.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions with gusty winds through the TAF period.

A cold front moved across the forecast area with gusty winds
and strong cold advection now in place behind it. All TAF sites
will see a period of WNW wind gusts around 20 kts through at
least 09Z. There may be a lull in the gusts from 09Z to 15Z,
but WNW gusts will soon return as winds gust from 20 to 30 kts after
15z and especially after 18z through the remainder of the TAF
period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR conditions likely continue into
at least the mid week with drier air in place.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Lake Wind Advisory until 4 AM EST Tuesday for SCZ016-018-
     020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137.
     Freeze Warning from 8 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Tuesday for
     SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-
     135>137.
GA...Lake Wind Advisory until 4 AM EST Tuesday for GAZ040-063>065-
     077.
     Freeze Warning from 8 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Tuesday for
     GAZ040-063>065-077.

&&

$$