Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
391 FXUS62 KCAE 082358 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 658 PM EST Mon Dec 8 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Cool and cloudy conditions with chilly temperatures expected tonight, into the 20s for most. Dry conditions are then anticipated for the mid to late week period with near to slightly below normal temperatures. A colder air mass may move in for the weekend and early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... Key message(s): - Cold with temps dropping into the mid 20`s in many spots. At the surface, low cloud cover continues to linger as a diffuse front meanders through the area. Cold advection will continue out of the north this evening and into Tuesday morning as the parent 500mb trough crosses the region, shifting flow aloft out of the northwest. As the core of the vort max within that 500mb trough moves through this evening, we will likely see a few light showers across parts of the area and a few flurries are possible later tonight. Otherwise, the cold advection will strengthen, along with some clearing aloft, and temps will dive into the 20`s by the morning. Winds will remain elevated overnight to help mitigate any fog concerns. Winds should help dry things out this evening, but a few isolated spots of black ice are possible with temps in the mid-20`s. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Key message(s): - Continued cool weather Tuesday, but drier conditions are expected. - Warmer but breezy at times on Wednesday. Tuesday and Tuesday Night: After a chilly start to the day Tuesday, high pressure will gradually work overhead, bringing light winds generally out of the north. Some low clouds are expected to remain in place through at least the first part of the morning before starting to scatter out during the afternoon as drier air filters in. Lingering clouds and CAA behind Monday`s system should yield another day with afternoon high temperatures well below normal, in the 40s across the FA. PWAT`s drop to around 0.25" through the day and dry conditions likely continue overnight with another chilly night expected as lows bottom out in the upper 20s to low 30s, though spots into the mid 20s could be possible. Wednesday and Wednesday Night: A sharp shortwave moves into New England through the day Wednesday, extending down into the Mid Atlantic. This should turn low level flow out of the southwest and moisture should tick up some with PWAT`s between 0.50-0.75". Model guidance has continue to keep forcing from this system north of the FA and thus dry weather is expected outside of some more clouds during the afternoon and evening. Wednesday should also be the first day in a while with temperatures that reach at least near normal, in the mid to upper 50s. As this shortwave moves through the region, a 40-50 kt LLJ is expected to develop near the FA and with deeper mixing occurring during the afternoon, a breezy day is expected where conditions near Lake Wind Advisory criteria will be possible (probabilities for gusts over 25 mph between 50-70%). Increased cloud cover Wednesday night should keep lows a bit more mild, in the mid to upper 30s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Key message(s): - Near normal temperatures to end the week before possible cool down over weekend and into next week. - More dry weather expected through the period at this time. There is decent agreement amongst global models and ensemble guidance in dry weather continuing Thursday and Friday as troughing continues over the eastern US. Temperatures continue to trend near to just below average each day before a dry front may move through sometime Friday and cooler air ushers in behind it. Significant differences in guidance exist this weekend and into the early week as the potential for another cool down (but with more dry weather) exists with a strong Canadian high pressure system diving southeast. There is a large spread in blended guidance IQR ranges for temperatures Sunday where the difference between the 25th and 75th percentile is 10-20F. Due to this, low confidence exists in the pattern toward the end of this forecast period as differences remain in the strength and placement of this high. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Widespread stratus across the area with high confidence in IFR/MVFR restrictions through late morning Tuesday. Some scouring out of cloud cover occurred across the CSRA this evening, and do expect to see some breaks in the clouds across the central Midlands sites the next few hours. However, ceilings still forecast to remain mvfr at cae/cub/ogb through 06-07z, then should see some ifr ceilings after 07z through 18z. At the CSRA sites of ags/dnl, periods of scattered to broken vfr ceilings will continue to occur through 04z, then guidance is indicating redevelopment of mvfr/ifr ceiling restrictions through 18z. By Tuesday afternoon though, clouds should finally be able to scatter out at all sites as some drier air makes it into the region. VFR forecast from 18z onward at all locations. Winds for the most part will be light and variable overnight and into Tuesday. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant aviation restrictions expected. Breezy conditions are possible on Wednesday. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$