483
FXUS62 KCAE 101127
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
627 AM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Gusty winds are expected through the day and into the evening as
an abnormally cold airmass works into the area. Temperatures are
very likely to drop into the 20s tonight into Tuesday morning.
Temperatures moderating for the second half of the week to near
average.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- Wind gusts of 30-40 mph possible this afternoon and evening
- Temperatures in the 20s very likely tonight

Cold, dry air is filtering into the region in the wake of a cold
front. An anomalously deep upper trough will work across the
eastern US today with the axis of the trough moving over the
Carolinas overnight. NAEFS 500 mb heights are lower than all
other events in the 30 year climatology for around this time of
year. Temperatures will be much cooler than the past few days
with highs just reaching into the upper 40s to low 50s under
strong cold advection. We will likely experience a hard freeze
tonight with 80 percent or more of NBM members at or below 28
degrees tonight for most locations. Cold advection will be the
main driver of tonight`s lows since surface high pressure will
remain off to our south and west keeping winds up through the
night. Lows will likely be in the mid 20s to upper 20s in the
well mixed environment. However we may see lows in the low 20s
in a few spots. Record lows will be possible at CAE (26F) and
AGS (24F).

The cold advection and tight pressure gradient will lead to
strong winds over the region today and through the evening. NW
gusts of 20 to 30 mph can be expected for much of the period.
However the pressure gradient tightens up late this afternoon
and in the evening with the axis of the upper trough just to our
west. During this time, winds may gust to 40 mph, nearing Wind
Advisory criteria.

One more item of note for this afternoon and evening. As the
axis of the upper trough nears the forecast area, a shallow
cloud layer about 1 to 2 km deep is expected to push across the
northern FA. PWAT values of just a quarter inch will certainly
make measurable precip very unlikely. However given the strong
dynamic effects of the PV anomaly swinging into the Carolinas
around 00Z, there may be enough lift to generate some very light
precip from cold cloud layer which will fall into very dry low-
levels. This will not lead to significant weather, but the fact
that wetbulb temperatures will be close to 0 deg C near the
surface throws a precip type issue. There is a good agreement
between CAMs that measurable precip is unlikely although a few
HREF and SREF members indicate the potential for a few sprinkles
or possibly flurries. At this time sprinkles seem most likely
given the surface temps should be above freezing at the time.
Again, in either case, nothing of significance is expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- Cold weather continues, warming into midweek.

A very cold and dry air mass will be in place early Tuesday with
850mb temperatures around -8C across the forecast area and the upper
trough axis slowly shifting eastward. While temperatures aloft will
gradually recover through the day as heights begin to rise, still
expect well below average temperatures Tuesday. Blended guidance
shows high probability of max temps below 50F (70-80%). A bit breezy
but winds not nearly as strong as Monday as surface high pressure
begins to settle into the Southeast, ridging into the forecast area
with winds decreasing into Tuesday evening. Temperatures will drop
off rather quickly after sunset with a strengthening low level jet
preventing ideal radiational cooling. Lows still expected to be
well below average once again, generally in the low 30s,
although sheltered locations likely drop into the 20s once
again.

Warming trend beginning Wednesday with zonal flow developing and
strengthening winds aloft as a shortwave passes well to the north of
the area. Dry weather expected to continue with mostly clear skies.
With NAEFS mean indicating 850mb winds greater than the 90th
percentile, around 40 knots, breezy conditions expected once again
and a Lake Wind Advisory may be needed. Moderating temperatures
continue into Wednesday night with lows in the upper 30s and low
40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key message(s):

- Temperatures moderating to near average by the end of the
  week.

The long term will feature benign weather with broad surface high
pressure over the eastern CONUS. Blended guidance favors near
average temperatures through the end of the week with potential for
some weak ridging by the weekend leading to slightly above average
temperatures as surface high pressure is expected to shift offshore.
Dry weather continuing with PWATs below normal with LREF mean around
0.5 to 0.6 inches at least through Saturday. Potential for moisture
increase with global models indicating an upper low approaching the
area. Plenty of uncertain as to this low`s progression, but Sunday
will be the next chance for rain at the earliest.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions with gusty winds through the TAF period.

A cold front moved across the forecast area with gusty winds
and strong cold advection now in place behind it. Gusts have
somewhat subsided over the region early this morning but after
14Z or so, NW winds will pick back up with gusts from 20 to 30
kts through the evening. The pressure gradient tightens a
little further after 18z, especially at the AGS and DNL
terminals which could lead to gusts closer to 30 kts. Gusty
winds will continue into the evening until around 06Z. Otherwise
dry air will prevent restrictions.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR conditions likely continue into
at least the mid week with drier air in place.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Lake Wind Advisory until 4 AM EST Tuesday for SCZ016-018-
     020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137.
     Freeze Warning from 8 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Tuesday for
     SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-
     135>137.
GA...Lake Wind Advisory until 4 AM EST Tuesday for GAZ040-063>065-
     077.
     Freeze Warning from 8 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Tuesday for
     GAZ040-063>065-077.

&&

$$