382
FXUS62 KCAE 022337
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
637 PM EST Sun Nov 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain chances continue tonight as an upper low translates
overhead. This will be followed by an extended period of dry
weather courtesy of passing high pressure systems. Temperatures
gradually warm next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Key message(s):

- Showers continue tonight, diminishing Monday morning.

The upper low is now moving into northern AL/GA, as increased
isentropic lift and WAA toward the Coastal Plain and eastern
Midlands drives an area of rain. This forcing along with
enhanced 925-850mb frontogenesis should continue to drive
showers mainly in the Pee Dee and eastern Midlands tonight with
PWAT`s just around 1". There is a strong area of 925mb
frontogenesis, forming a cold frontal feature under the cold
upper low (temperatures around -25C at 500mb) across GA,
focusing another batch of showers and isolated storms as mid
level lapse rates approach 7C/km with some limited elevated
instability. This batch should approach the CSRA overnight
tonight as the low moves overhead but majority of CAM`s show
this activity mainly dissipating before reaching. Still, an
isolated shower or even rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out
here.

The upper low should be overhead into Monday morning with
diminishing rain chances and decreasing cloud cover. This
decrease in cloud cover, especially in the northern Midlands and
toward the northern CSRA could create a fairly tight gradient
in overnight low temperatures from NW to SE. Temperatures in
the northern Midlands and northern CSRA could be in the lower
40s while the Pee Dee and eastern Midlands are closer to the
upper 40s to near 50 as cloud cover lingers.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- Dry weather returns with slightly below average temperatures.

By Monday morning, the upper trough axis will be over the area but
much drier air is expected to move in behind the trough. HREF probs
indicate greater than 70% probability of PWATs less than 3/4 of an
inch, with PWATs decreasing through the morning. While it`s not out
of the question a few showers could linger in the Pee Dee, guidance
continues to support drier conditions for mid to late morning and
into the afternoon as winds shift out of the northwest. While dew
points have trended lower in blended guidance, with downslope flow
developing, monitoring for this trend to continue and dew points may
need to be lowered further with subsequent updates. Temperatures
near to slightly below average, in the mid to upper 60s for highs.
Lows Monday night expected to drop into the low to mid 40s. While
skies will be clear, lingering northerly wind in the boundary layer
will prevent ideal radiational cooling conditions, although this
will somewhat be countered by cold advection.

Upper ridging begins to strengthen over the Gulf with heights
recovering into Tuesday. Temperatures expected to be a few degrees
warmer, with heights near normal leading to near normal
temperatures. High pressure at the surface will lead to light winds
and clear skies, extending into Tuesday night. This will lead to
near ideal radiational cooling. Probability of minimum temperatures
below 40 remains around 40-50% so will need to monitor the potential
for a frost advisory.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key message(s):

- Warming through the week and dry.

- Increasing moisture for the weekend.

Upper ridging generally expected to persist over the area through
the extended period. Highest height anomalies will remain along the
TX/LA coast which GEFS mean indicates above average heights, around
1 standard deviation above normal. Blended temperatures are expected
to remain a few degrees above average as a result with dry weather
expected to continue with high probability (greater than 70%) of
LREF PWATs less than 3/4 of an inch through at least Friday. A bit
of a moisture increase possible for the weekend with increasing
ensemble members showing at least light rain possible as a low
pressure system passes to the north but vast majority of members
keep any precipitation to the north.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Closed upper low near the AL/GA/TN boarder this evening will
continue to track eastward overnight. Jet east of this low is
bringing plenty of mid and upper level cloudiness across the
CSRA/Midlands, with a dry slot showing on satellite across the
upstate of SC and eastern GA. A few showers are being indicated
on radar across eastern SC, with the back side near ogb at taf
issuance time. This activity will move east of all taf locations
after 01z. As the upper low moves through late tonight and
Monday morning, can not rule out an isolated shower or even a
brief thunderstorm due to weak instability associated with the
cold core low. Coverage remains low enough to keep mention out
of all taf locations tonight though. As for clouds, most
cloudinessthis evening is in the mid-levels, and all taf
locations are reporting vfr conditions. Latest lamp/hrrr
guidance is trending towards a period of ifr ceilings developing
across the Midlands taf locations of cae/cub/ogb by 07z,
lasting through the night. With the clear slot expected around
that time, can not rule this scenario out, and it is appearing
more likely. Guidance less bullish on ifr at ags/dnl with less
low-level moisture. Winds will be light overnight, then become
more out of the NW Monday morning with speeds then increasing to
around 10 knots with a few higher gusts possible.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...no widespread restrictions expected
beyond Monday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$