839
FXUS62 KCAE 191755
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1255 PM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Very warm this afternoon, but a backdoor cold front is expected
to move through tonight resulting in cooler temperatures for
much of the forecast area on Thursday. Near record high
temperatures remain possible on Friday ahead of the next
system. A few showers or thunderstorms are possible on Saturday
with a cold front before high pressure returns for Sunday and
Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- Warm and dry this afternoon.
- Cold front moves through tonight.

Very warm temperatures are being noted across the forecast area
with many locations in the upper 70s to near 80 as of 12:30 pm.
Moisture is also on the uptick as 60 dew points have reached the
central Midlands at this time.

Looking ahead, a cold front currently in the Mid-Atlantic is
forecast to sag southward this afternoon into tonight. As it
reaches the forecast area tonight, a rogue shower or two is
possible in the northern Midlands, but confidence is too low to
include in the forecast at this time. In addition, some moisture
pooling in the CSRA could produce pockets of fog early tomorrow
morning. Despite the cold front moving through tonight,
temperatures remain mild across the area, with lows likely in
the lower to mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- Cooler behind front Thursday before near record highs are
  possible Friday.

- Rain chances increase late Friday night.

Thursday and Thursday Night: The backdoor front will be through
the area Thursday, turning flow out of the northeast and
bringing slightly cooler conditions with highs in the mid to
upper 70s expected. PWAT`s should remain above 0.75" through the
day with increased cloud cover expected, but dry conditions
should prevail as the upper ridge moves overhead with a
shortwave approaching the Southern Plains. Overnight, mostly to
partly cloudy skies will limit radiational cooling as lows keep
toward the low to mid 50s.

Friday and Friday Night: On Friday the upper ridge will become
increasingly suppressed as the shortwave now moves closer to the
Mississippi Valley through the day. Low level flow will turn
out of the southwest and moisture will increase to near 1.25"
through the day with moderate warm advection aiding in bringing
temperatures toward the upper 70s to lower 80s despite increased
cloud cover. Afternoon highs could near record values where the
record value at CAE is 81F and 82F at AGS. Continued moisture
advection and the approaching shortwave could bring isolated
rain showers late Friday night, but the better chances hold off
until Saturday morning. Overnight lows should be mild with high
low level moisture and mostly cloudy skies, in the upper 50s to
low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key message(s):

- Next system passes Saturday with isolated to scattered rain
  chances the first half of the day.

- Dry and warm conditions Sunday and Monday.

- Another system moves in by Tuesday with another chance for
  rain.

A flip-flop with deterministic guidance continues for the
evolution of the shortwave expected to pass through the region
on Saturday. The 12z GFS pulls the bulk of forcing from this
north of the FA while the ECMWF, NAM, and Canadian have the
southern periphery of it scraping the FA. The signal for strong
925-850mb moisture transport is apparent across model runs as
PWAT`s may rise further to just shy of 1.50" (above the NAEFS
90th percentile) Saturday morning ahead of a cold front.
Overall, this is expected to lead to isolated to scattered
shower chances the first half of Saturday where a couple storms
can not be ruled out. Drier conditions are expected behind the
front Saturday night as an upper ridge and surface high pressure
fill back in. Temperatures are a bit tricky Saturday with
blended guidance pushing the upper 70s to low 80s again, but
increased cloud cover and rain chances that could linger into
the afternoon may keep temperatures a bit lower.

The upper ridge behind Saturday`s system should dominate Sunday
and Monday with cooler temperatures (still just above normal)
and dry conditions, though PWAT`s should still be over 0.50"
each day. A more potent shortwave is progged to eject out of the
Southern Plains Tuesday and into Wednesday, which brings
another potential for at least isolated rain chances each day.
Spread amongst global models on the track of the shortwave is
fairly large at the moment so confidence is not particularly
high in greater than slight chance PoP`s right now.
Temperatures near normal are expected into the midweek at this
time.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR anticipate through much of the period, but fog is possible
at AGS/DNL late.

Mainly clear skies are being observed at the time of this
writing across the area. Expect a few clouds as we head through
the afternoon. West southwest winds, gusting to around 15 kts
are anticipated to continue through about 00z before diminishing
to light and variable or calm at the terminals. Winds become
north to northeasterly after around 14z and increase to about 5
kts. There remains potential for some fog at AGS/DNL, so have
kept the BR group in the TAF for now.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR conditions likely continue through
most of the week with dry air in place. Increasing moisture
Friday night will lead to chances for rain and possible
restrictions.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$