740
FXUS62 KCAE 152323
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
623 PM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Arctic high pressure brings another night of bitterly cold
temperatures to the forecast area tonight. Weak upper ridging
should then allow for air mass recovery during the mid-week
period. The next chance of rain arrives Thursday into Friday as
a cold front sweeps through the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Key message(s):

- Bitter cold temps again tonight.

An arctic high pressure has moved over the region, and is
expected to stay over the area tonight, likely centering over
the eastern Midlands. As a result, clear skies and light winds
will aid in ideal radiational cooling tonight, allowing for
bitterly cold lows once again. Overnight lows are expected to be
similar to last night, but winds are expected to be light to
calm. So, wind chills won`t be much lower than the air temp and
remain above Cold Weather Advisory levels (10-15F). That said,
it is reasonable to anticipate a few locations dropping to below
15F tonight, but not widespread enough for an Advisory.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- Warmer temperatures during the mid-week period.

Weak upper ridging will be in place on Tuesday and much of
Wednesday, which will combine with high pressure sliding off
the coast to promote a warming trend during the short term.
Tuesday begins cold once again with temperatures well below
freezing but should recover quickly thanks to abundant sunshine
and southwest winds with forecast highs in the upper 40s to
mid-50s. Clouds begin to increase Tuesday night, likely leading
to warmer overnight temperatures, though most locations should
end up at or just below the freezing mark by daybreak Wednesday.
Another day of southwesterly flow will allow the warming trend
to continue into Wednesday as temperatures warm into the mid-50s
to around 60 degrees, coolest towards the Upstate which will
see the thickest cloud cover as a shortwave approaches. The
clouds continue to lower and thicken Wednesday night but the
forecast looks dry. Lows Wednesday night should be even warmer
with forecast values in the mid-30s to lower 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key message(s):

- A few showers are possible Thursday ahead of an approaching
  cold front. The highest chance of rain will be Thursday night
  into early Friday morning.

- Dry conditions will likely follow for Friday and the weekend
  with near to above normal daytime temperatures.

Moisture increases on Thursday ahead of an approaching cold
front and may lead to a few showers during the daytime hours as
a shortwave passes through the FA. The best chance of rain will
hold off until Thursday night and into early Friday morning
along and ahead of the cold front. The boundary will have upper
level support in the form of an quick moving trough, meaning a
period of light to moderate rainfall is expected. The quick
moving nature of the Synoptic pattern suggests most locations
should pick up a quarter inch to as much as a half inch of
rainfall before rain quickly tapers off early Friday morning.
The air mass behind the cold front is not much colder therefore
temperatures are expected to be around seasonal values on Friday
and Saturday, warming above normal on Sunday. The next chance
for subfreezing temperatures comes Friday night when clear skies
and light winds could promote idealized radiational cooling,
but values are not expected to be as low as the ongoing cold
snap. Once the cold front clears the region, dry conditions are
favored through Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions continue through the TAF period.

High pressure remains over the region tonight then shifts
southeast of the area on Tuesday. Winds have become light and
variable to calm and should remain so overnight and then will
pick up from the southwest around 5 knots after 15z as the
surface highs shifts away from the area and the pressure
gradient increases a bit. A very dry air mass in place will
prevent fog concerns and keep skies clear.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...The next chance for widespread
restrictions will be Thursday as moisture increases over the
Southeast. This will lead to potential early morning
restrictions and increasing rain chances.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$