836
FXUS62 KCAE 151716
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
116 PM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure weakens ahead of a reinforcing dry cold front
tonight, with noticeably cooler temperatures, especially
Thursday night. Another front is forecast to approach late in
the weekend, bringing the next chance for rainfall along with
it.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- Seasonably warm and dry.
- Cold front forecast to move through tonight.

Upper ridge over the region this afternoon is forecast to begin
shifting westward due to an upper trough digging across the
Northeast. This trough is pushing a dry cold front southward
and is forecast to reach our area tonight. As it does, drier air
and a wind shift to the northeast can be expected. Despite the
cold front arriving tonight, overnight lows are forecast to be
near normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- Cooler and dry both Thursday and Friday.

- Chilly conditions likely Thursday and Friday nights.

Upper ridge axis will be located over the Mississippi River
Valley at the start of the period, moving overhead by daybreak
Saturday. At the surface, high pressure over the Great Lakes
moves southeast also ending up near the FA by the end of the
short tern. This will result in cooler and continued dry weather
for the Midlands and CSRA on both Thursday and Friday. Expect
high temperatures in the 70s on Thursday and upper 60s to
mid-70s on Friday. The clear skies, dry air, and light winds
will be ideal for radiational cooling at night allowing
temperatures to fall into the lower 40s to near 50 degrees
Thursday night and the mid-40s to lower 50s Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key message(s):

- Warmer on Saturday ahead of the next approaching cold front.

- This cold front will bring the next chance of rain on Sunday.

- Dry conditions return for early next week.

The upper ridging shifts offshore on Saturday in response to a
potent trough arriving from the west. There are significant
differences between the deterministic GFS and Euro regarding the
strength and speed of this trough and its attendant cold front,
which will play a role in our weather for Sunday. This may be
followed by a more progressive upper pattern next week.
Meanwhile, surface high pressure located near the Grand Strand
at daybreak Saturday also moves offshore as the cold front
approaches from the west, followed by high pressure for Monday
and Tuesday.

In terms of the weather for the FA, Saturday will be warmer but
still dry as winds shift to a southerly direction and moisture
gradually recovers. Sunday should have similar temperatures
despite increasing cloudiness with rain chances rising during
the afternoon and evening hours. The chance of rain, and any
thunderstorm potential, will largely hinge on the strength and
timing of the cold front. The Euro is faster and stronger and
once again shows a line of showers and thunderstorms arriving
late Sunday into Sunday evening, while the GFS shows more
disorganized showers arriving Sunday evening into Sunday night.
Given the differences in the guidance, it is too early to
speculate on any severe threat at this time, though organized
severe weather seems less likely due to the overall lack of
instability.

As mentioned, high pressure is expected to build in for Monday
and Tuesday bringing another round of cooler and dry weather.
Another system may approach to close out the extended.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions are generally expected through the TAF period.

Few to scattered clouds in the 3-4 kft range are being seen on
satellite imagery, with the most coverage at AGS and DNL. Those
sites may see brief MVFR cigs for the next hour or so.
Otherwise, mainly clear skies can be expected through the rest
of the TAF period. A front is forecast to move through the area
overnight, shifting the winds from generally northerly to more
northeasterly. Winds pick up to near 10 kts after about 13z
through the rest of the TAF period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR conditions expected to continue
through Friday. Moisture should increase this weekend, ramping
up chances for restrictions and possible convection ahead of
another front.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$