Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
350 FXUS62 KCAE 140559 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 159 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure continues to drive the weather pattern for the next couple of days. Our next chance of rain might be early next week but is dependent on the location and development of an upper level low. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Key message(s): - Breezy northeast winds and otherwise calm weather for Sunday. A cutoff low just offshore embedded within broad upper troughing lingers over the area with surface ridging extending down lee of the Appalachians. Dry air continues to advect at low levels and PWAT`s overall remain around 1.0" across the area thanks to northeasterly flow below 700mb and northwesterly flow aloft. Besides some mid- upper level strato-cu, the only feature of note today will be the aforementioned breezy winds, with some gusty northeast surface winds 16-20 mph during the afternoon. Otherwise no impactful changes to the surface pattern are expected through Monday morning. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Key message(s): - Low chances of rain favoring the Pee Dee region and eastern Midlands Model guidance has come into better agreement showing the upper trough off the coast becoming a cutoff low that will linger across the Carolinas early this week. There remains some uncertainty regarding how strong this cutoff low becomes and where an accompanying surface low develops and possibly moves inland. The ECMWF continues to be the wetter solution with the upper closed low further inland and bringing the surface low onshore resulting in higher rain chances on Tuesday with easterly low level flow off the Atlantic. The GFS continues to be further north and east with the upper closed low and associated surface low bringing it inland across eastern NC and keeping rain chances generally north of the forecast area. Therefore, the slight chance to chance (20-30%) chances of rain in the forecast seem reasonable. Warm temperatures are expected to continue on Monday with highs in the mid 80s but more extensive cloud cover is expected by Tuesday, especially across the northern Midlands and expect cooler temperatures on Tuesday with highs ranging from the upper 70s northern Midlands to the mid 80s in the CSRA. An increased pressure gradient will provide gusty winds early in the week with gusts over 20 mph. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Key message(s): - Upper ridging builds over the region - Dry with above normal temperatures The closed upper low over the Carolinas is expected to open up and lift northward mid week in response to a digging upper trough over the upper Midwest. 500mb height rises should result in a return to above normal high temperatures through the end of the week with highs Thursday into the weekend back in the upper 80s to lower 90s. A drier air mass is expected with PWATs below normal which should provide a dry forecast into the weekend. Expect relatively large diurnal temperature ranges with overnight lows in the lower to mid 60s. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR expected through the period. A low level jet overnight and some mid-level cloud cover should mitigate any stratus or fog concern through Sunday morning. Sunday, surface high pressure remains in place across SC and GA, with some mid-level strato-cu. Much like Saturday, winds are the main feature, with northeasterly surface winds continuing, sustained 8-12 knots with gusts up to 16-20 knots in the afternoon; winds will increase from west to east, so OGB will likely see the strongest gusts. Winds will relax after 00z but enough of a low level jet will linger overnight to again mitigate stratus-fog concerns Sunday morning. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A dry air mass will be over the region this week and no significant aviation restrictions expected. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$