313
FXUS62 KCAE 011804
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
204 PM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry conditions continue through Sunday with shower chances
returning Sunday night into Monday. Several days of dry
conditions to follow with a gradual warming trend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- Dry and cool

Surface high pressure remains in place over the area. Expect
highs today in the mid 60s. An inverted, coastal trough develops
tonight as an upper trough digs into the eastern US. This will
allow for easterly low-level flow to develop. Moisture will
increase slightly keeping lows tonight warmer than the previous
night. In addition, a few high clouds will lead to more limited
radiational cooling. So lows tonight are expected to remain in
the upper 30s to low 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- An approaching trough will bring widespread rain chances late
Sunday into Monday.

Upper trough will be digging into the Tennessee Valley Sunday with
southwest flow aloft leading to increasing moisture. This will lead
to increasing clouds across the forecast area. Progression of the
trough seems to be coming into better agreement among global models.
The trough overall remains positively tilted leading to a quicker
progression through the forecast area. Developing low pressure along
baroclinic zone at the South Carolina coast will lead to increasing
isentropic lift in the eastern portion of the area. As a result,
precip chances will increase late in the day Sunday and into Sunday
night. HREF PWAT mean around 1 to 1.1 inches so rain not expected to
be all that heavy but blended guidance does continue to increase
pops, especially in the Pee Dee. With HREF members now in range as
well, confidence is increasing in at least light rain Sunday night
into Monday morning. While most of the area will likely
experience light rain, HiRes guidance is indicating
strengthening frontogenesis near the northern and eastern border
of the forecast area which could lead to a band of some
enhanced amounts, potentially over an inch as indicated by the
HREF PMM. With the more progressive movement of the upper
trough, expect drier air moving in for Monday afternoon and
while some light rain showers will remain possible in the
eastern area, strongest frontogenesis is expected to push north
of the area. Highs both Sunday and Monday, generally in the mid
60s with lows in the mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key message(s):

- Near to slightly above average and dry through the rest of
  the week.

Broad high pressure settles over the Southeast Tuesday. Upper
ridging begins to strengthen over the lower Mississippi Valley.
Ensemble means have generally trended a bit stronger with this
ridge, with NAEFS mean indicating greater than 90th percentile
heights over the Deep South, although not quite extending into the
forecast area. This has led to blended guidance coming in a bit
warmer for temperatures next week to near average Tuesday and
slightly above average through the rest of the week. The most
notable point of slightly above average temperatures is frost will
be unlikely each night, even with relatively favorable radiational
cooling with high pressure the dominant feature.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
River valley fog possible again, otherwise VFR.

Winds will be light throughout the 24 hour TAF period and
generally out of the E or ENE, becoming calm overnight. A few
high clouds are expected to move into the area tonight so
radiational cooling should not be as strong. However there may
still be a few pockets of clear sky which allow brief periods of
river valley fog to develop and bring restrictions to OGB and
AGS. Any restrictions would quickly dissipate after sunrise with
light, east winds returning.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...The next chance for widespread
restrictions and rainfall will be late Sunday and early next
week as another front approaches.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$